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Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

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Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#431

Post by flyinglizard »

deaux wrote: post #272
muzani wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I prefer assassinations of leaders in wars over deaths of soldiers and especially civilians. Considering how Israel had to raze entire cities to beat 'Hamas' or the US dropping nukes in WW2 instead of bombing the Japanese Emperor. This is decent as far as wars go.

> Considering how Israel had to raze entire cities to beat 'Hamas' They didn't, they just had to stop funding them, as Hamas has been funded by Israel.

No, Hamas was never funded by Israel. In this instance, Hamas was funded by Qatar, and the Israelis were complicit by allowing it. But it's also important to remember that Hamas is the elected sovereign in Gaza, and this money was used in part to run Gaza's infrastructure. In the same way Taliban runs Afghanistan, Hamas runs Gaza.

The assumption in Israel was that it was beneficial to have Hamas retain something to lose, and not starve them dry outright. Of course that didn't pan out well, given what Hamas did in October 7th.

But saying Hamas was funded by Israel is an outright lie, and the irony it comes from the same people who blame Israel for not letting supplies into Gaza during war. So no matter if Israel does or does not, it's always to blame simply by being.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#433

Post by bonzini »

UltraSane wrote: post #418
penguin_booze wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do enjoy the moment while it lasts. Because the next ruler will be an American stooge. This isn't going anywhere, like the other "revolutions" in the middle east.

At least a sane stooge.

Like Saddam Hussein?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#434

Post by mr_toad »

UltraSane wrote: post #418
penguin_booze wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do enjoy the moment while it lasts. Because the next ruler will be an American stooge. This isn't going anywhere, like the other "revolutions" in the middle east.

At least a sane stooge.

Was Saddam a sane stooge?

The US (and before them the UK) meddling in middle eastern politics has always seemed like kicking a wasp nest.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#436

Post by logicallee »

lamontcg wrote: post #279
orthogonal_cube wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Removal of the head of state is often a turning point. Either a regime becomes more extreme or the government collapses due to in-fighting as individuals attempt to gain control. I would hold back on any hopes until we see how the current government handles things. Intervention from other countries does not always lead to positive outcomes.

Has there been a regime which has collapsed due to an external strike like this where it hasn't resulted in some decades long civil war nightmare? I can't think of any time when bombing the shit out of a country and killing their leader has actually worked. All I can think of is examples of blowback.

>I can't think of any time when bombing the shit out of a country and killing their leader has actually worked.

This happened just weeks ago in Venezuela, though in that case the removal was by abduction and foreign trial. (The U.S. struck Venezuela and abducted its President at the time, bringing him to trial in the United States. I've just now asked ChatGPT for a research report on his current status, you can read it here[1].)

This led to immediate and definitive regime change, the U.S. now has an excellent relationship with the new President of Venezuela.

[1] https://chatgpt.com/share/69a424b4-de38-800c-8699-cb95d25090...

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#437

Post by sph »

tdeck wrote: post #425
thomassmith65 wrote: post #12

The Iranian diaspora around the world is celebrating. Here's the scene in Berlin: https://youtu.be/NSbx_0mtk80?si=MJ_Bfvx8gVd1P1mm They've waited a very long time for this moment!

It's interesting that they're all flying the flag of the Shah.

The son of a Shah that was deposed by mass protests by well-educated students and intellectuals during the Islamic Revolution, who are now in their 60s.

Time is a circle.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#438

Post by oa335 »

indubioprorubik wrote: post #332
jcranmer wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, the IGRC doesn't particularly rub happily with the clerical council, and it's not entirely clear to me who will win that the power struggle. But the ultimate loser of the power struggle is clear: the Iranian populace at large, as all of the viable factions are quite committed to consolidating their power by repressing the population. The most likely situation, I think, looks a lot like Libya.

Islamic societies seem to be unable to form stable institutions. The recipe seems to be unable to synthesize this, no matter how many ressources are available and how benign the conditions. As a result the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan and the family clan just does not cut it in preventing civil war. At best you get a clan-coalition masquerading as a military government with some democrat…

“ the biggest formable state-institution remains the family clan”

This is not at all how Irani society is structured.

The rest of your comments generalizations are weak and ill-supported as well, at best they only apply to a subset of Arab countries in the Middle East.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#439

Post by roenxi »

lelanthran wrote: post #411
roenxi wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While this is a minor point; whether or not it was an Iranian misfire doesn't move the moral responsibility away from the invaders. Unless the IRGC took advantage of the chaos to purposefully hit the school (seems unlikely) then the entire situation was teed up by the external aggression and can still pretty reasonably be blamed on them.

Of course it does. If you try to shield your armed forces using children, and then accidentally kill them because you used them as a shield, you can't blame someone else.

... I'm just going of Wikipedia here but it seems to have been a standard small city [0]. Attempting to educate Iranians in Iranian cities isn't really trying to shield armed forces. Is the expectation here that Iran should send their students out into the wilderness to make it more politically convenient for US/Israeli to launch unannounced strikes on them?

Apart from the fact that Iran is a bad place to be right now it actually looks like a pleasant city to visit. Sounds like they have lots of fruit, warm weather and have some interesting history vis a vis the Mongols. Very middle eastern.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minab

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#440

Post by UltraSane »

w10-1 wrote: post #107

This claim and the offer of immunity may be intended more to reduce Iranian resistance than to represent reality. (I would not rely on immunity from a nation that left collaborators on the tarmac in afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam?)

Approximately 370,000 Hmong Americans live in the U.S. largely due to their alliance with the CIA during the Vietnam war.
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