431–440 of 620 posts
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I’m convinced these “guys you gotta believe me I’m a seasoned veteran and this shit is the real deal” posts that show up in every AI thread are either coming from Sam Altman or a bot.
Just try it.
Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.
How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007
If market share is a moat, IBM should still be the biggest tech company.
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Nope wrong framing. Nvidia is investing assets into OAI - it has to. Because OAI needs to become successful for Nvidia's story in the long-term to play out, to justify its current stock price.
Nvidia just needs the winner to be an Nvidia customer. OpenAI is replacable.
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Nope wrong framing. Nvidia is investing assets into OAI - it has to. Because OAI needs to become successful for Nvidia's story in the long-term to play out, to justify its current stock price.
Nvidia just needs the winner to be an Nvidia customer. OpenAI is replacable.
People will start looking at valuations more carefully. Investors will get jittery. Spending on GPUs will drop, as will NVidia’s stock price.
I’m not sure that NVidia views OpenAI as replaceable.
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Maybe! Switching search engines is also very easy, and the top story on the front page is someone no longer using Google, but we know in practice almost nobody does that. As technologists we're much more likely to switch and know people who would switch.
Same strategy as for search. Gemini is going be shoveled down the mouth of users and they just won't change the default. On iOS with the Apple agreement, and on Android (though the question of hardware remains when considering beyond Pixel phones).
Depressing to see trillions sloshing around, and yet no jobs to be found.
$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…
> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…
How many years total are you basing this on?
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Comparing OpenAI and WeWork is a nonsensical perspective. OpenAI is shipping the most revolutionary product in a generation, with 800 million monthly active users. It's the fastest revenue ramp ever, at incredible scale -- $20B+ ARR. These are real fundamentals. They matter. And the cost of inference is coming down all the time. WeWork was a short-term/long-term lease arbitrage business. The two are nothing alike.
They had a first-mover advantage for sure. It used to be revolutionary, but now there is a huge difference: plenty of competition, and a growing number of high-quality models that can run offline (for free!) or cheaper (Gemini-Flash for example). They are in some way the Nokia of AI, "we have the distribution, product will sell", but this is not enough if innovation is weak. They are even lagging behind (GPT-5 is a w…
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It’s one of the worst takes I’ve heard. OpenAI creates the fastest growing app ever, spawns a revolution bigger than the internet, and this guys take is they are like WeWork…
Both can be true. Just because you've created a revolutionary product doesn't mean it's a viable business, let alone one worth $700+ billion. There is a lot of history of the first movers that created revolutionary products that eventually faded away into nothing, while others capitalized on the innovation.
I'd say most first movers fade away. Microsoft wasn't the first OS, Google wasn't the first search engine, Facebook wasn't the first social network... etc... etc... etc...