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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

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Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#431

Post by velcrovan »

llmslave wrote: post #189
FrustratedMonky wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

was money printing because of a lack of independence, and manipulation by the executive? or the fed trying to keep things afloat. this president is trying to money print during non-crisis, to ramp up economy to "20% GDP". why downvote? Trump literally said he wants a GDP that goes to 20% or 100%. Shoot to the moon.

covid money printing was some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

actually, llmslave, it was a very good decision. It's better to have mild inflation than widespread unemployment. But also, the fed's actions contributed comparatively little to the inflation we experienced. Globally there was a huge drop in supply, which caused prices to jump everywhere, not just in the US.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#432

Post by nonethewiser »

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

They are related but I think the lack of de-dollarization already shows there are other, more raw mechanics that are operative. Namely, liquidity and lack of alternatives.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#433

Post by krupan »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #283
krupan wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People downvote this but Bitcoin has some very nice properties: - easy to verify/impossible to forge (as opposed to gold and paper currency) - fixed supply (as opposed to paper currency, oil, and even gold) - easy to transfer from one party to another (as opposed to gold, oil, and physical cash)

> easy to transfer from one party to another "Let me just set up my P2P connection to the Bitcoin network and pay mining fees and hope a miner validates the block" vs "Here's a bar of gold mate" Sure, real easy

OK, how do I know that gold is pure and real? What if you live on the other side of the world and I want to buy that gold from you?

And there isn't any "hope" involved in bitcoin transactions. Connecting to the peer to peer network is super simple (way, way easier than creating a brokerage or bank account, and no ID or approval is required). Miners will pick up your transaction (and yes fees will help speed that up, as with any financial transaction) and it will be included in a block. Bitcoin has been doing this non-stop, flawlessly since 2009.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#434

Post by hommelix »

Waterluvian wrote: post #139
Jtsummers wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of us see it, but many others seem to be embracing it and trying to hasten it for reasons unknown. They pine for the glory days of post-WWII US hegemony but are actively undoing the institutions that were instrumental in US economic and political power at that time. They have no coherent world view, they are severely confused, but unfortunately numerous.

I actually have a greater disgust for those who see it but don't act. I think this line from an incredibly relevant book is precisely this: > "Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better. Those who act on behalf of evil are not free from…

Thanks for sharing this except of the book.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#435

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

> The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged.

This is mostly due to the behavior of the country being unusual.

The US had grown at a healthy clip for a long time.

Due to the amount of boomers exiting the workforce, and withdrawing rather than adding to their savings - the US is going to be in a very different position for the next 10-20 years before things start to level out.

If something like AI doesn't save us with a pretty sizable productivity boost, we're in for uncharted territory.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#436

Post by fumo_lover »

What world do you guys live in? The dollar is not held by some mythical rules and polices. It has it's status because of aircraft carriers and 30000+ fighter jets US has. No other country is even remotely close to that level of offensive military power.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#437

Post by schmidtleonard »

tigerlily wrote: post #332
omgJustTest wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currencies fundamentally relate to some trust. I believe that the near-term de-dollarization isn't as much trust erosion as it is a tool to provide monetary penalty for behaving in unpredictable ways. However it will provide incentive to move away from the dollar in the long-term, ie as Fareed Zakaria says "recent actions are accelerating the world to the multipolar future".

Multipolar? So kind of like Europe before the beginning of World War 1, with major powers all competing with each other?

The interwar era between WWI and WWII is most instructive for what a multipolar currency world looks like. The Pound Sterling still mostly worked before WWI and the Dollar rose in the wake of WWII.

The absence of a currency hegemon caused "Kindleberger problems," named after the economist who described them, and will cause them again. The big issue is that everyone wants to pump exports to pump their real economy, they can't all succeed because the world is a closed system, so they fight. First with tariffs, eventually with guns.

These Kindleberger Problems will get worse until the US gets its shit back together or China assumes the throne. Note that assuming the throne will destroy the export sector that they love so much (Triffin Dilemma), so not only are they not ready today, they don't even clearly want to be ready. Much like the US between WWI and WWII.

Buckle up, because the tariff wars, Great Depression, the economic driving force for the imperialism of Imperial Japan, and other awful things that you've heard of before all fall in the category of "Kindleberger Problems," are all downstream of not having a global currency hegemon, and are likely to rhyme with what comes next.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#438

Post by a115ltd »

Is the US dollar losing its dominance? The answer is both A) yes and B) it doesn't matter.

Yes, US dollar is losing a bit of power and influence. This is likely to continue.

Making inferences about the US global dominance based on this fact is misguided. US global dominance is as strong as ever and, if anything, getting stronger. US has very successfully managed to move the game a level above currency, to direct governance via financial, legal, political and military means. It has made any meaningful competitors either entirely irrelevant (e.g. Russia), pretty well aligned (e.g. India) or pretty well contained (e.g. China) It's blue skies ahead.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#439

Post by ferguess_k »

lbrito wrote: post #400
ferguess_k wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not so fast, though. A state can be a "killer", or a "giver", or both, to gain followers and sell its currency to other states. The US was both back in the 40s as well as the late 80s when Germany and USSR crumbled. So hail to Pax Americana. However, the US is more of a "killer" nowadays. The "killer" is usually more efficient than the "giver", because people value their life more than their wallet. So that's why I t…

>The US was both back in the 40s as well as the late 80s when Germany and USSR crumbled. So hail to Pax Americana. This is the historical equivalent of selective memory, and only really applies to a tiny slice of the planet - western Europe. A lot happened in the world between 1945 and 1989. Outside of Europe and Japan, most people would probably not be so sympathetic of the US actions during those times. An abridged…

Yeah that's the killer part I think. For EU and Japan/SK it's mostly the giver but there were also killer events like Operation Gladio.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#440

Post by tmountain »

chrisco255 wrote: post #167
munk-a wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a very sudden shift though - those options have existed but not generally been seriously considered. The US was seen as a bastion of stability and while sanctions could drastically impact a country's ability to trade due to the reliance on US currency exchange it has arguably been used relatively scarcely. The change is that suddenly the US isn't a bastion of stability and having an independent trading curre…

The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.

The U.S. chose to abandon the rules based international order that has made it a bastion of stability since WW2 when they decided they wanted a return to the monroe doctrine and that it was okay to arbitrarily invade countries and take their resources based on the impulses of a single person. The same person outwardly stated, "Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace". If you think this is "as stable as it gets", then we're living on different planets.
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