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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#431

Post by arter45 »

TZubiri wrote: post #414
arter45 wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. What I'm saying is that, especially because way less critical applications of this "bet and act to win the bet" rule (sport, insurance,...) are notoriously illegal, I don't see why worse use cases (bet on a military action and lead it) should be ok.

I can give you a concrete example In chess, it's part of the rules that you cannot use a chess engine, a tournament may have a prize money, to enter into a tournament you agree to some clauses like following the rules of chess and not using an engine. It's a contract. If someone were to use an engine, they would be cheating, and in this context it would be breach of contract, and possibly fraud. It would be wrong to…

Ok but what difference between, say, sport bets and “prediction market” is significant enough to allow people who can directly influence the result bet on it, but only in “prediction markets”?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#432

Post by butlike »

jbstack wrote: post #319
thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

I thought the commonly-held definition of gambling is: "it's gambling if it introduces risk."

e.g. a transaction to buy paper towels is not introducing risk, since I pay an amount and get something.

If I have a chance of not receiving those paper towels if I put money in, then it's considered gambling because the inherent activity introduces risk. It's the same reason the lootboxes were considered gambling at first, and the same reason I classify betting on a chess game as gambling. You're player may potentially not win.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#433

Post by butlike »

hamdingers wrote: post #389
banannaise wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking about "traditional" sports gambling rather than prediction markets: how do we account for the heavy restrictions they place on "sharps" (consistent winners)? If a game can be won through application of skill, but winning through application of skill causes you to be effectively banned, then the game cannot be won through application of skill.

The game is still won through the application of skill even if the house chooses not to play it with you.

Duration comes into play here. Is blackjack a single long game or is each hand a "game?"

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#434

Post by butlike »

nl wrote: post #324
entropyneur wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

> Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society. This isn't true. each 10 per cent increase in gambling expenditure in NSW results in more than 4,500 additional assaults 2,800 additional home break-ins 1,300 additional break and enter (non-dwelling) offences 1,400 additional motor vehicle thefts 2,300 additional stealing from motor vehicle thefts 3,800 additional fraud offences each year https…

Right, it's almost like necessity and desperation cause people to do desperate things. If I take your money and give you no resource in return, that's a degeneration.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#435

Post by alphazard »

arretevad wrote: post #429
alphazard wrote: post #409

The headline is part of a widespread trend of the word "gambling" being used as synonymous with "betting". This new use isn't constructive, as it makes it difficult to talk about either precisely. Betting (risking something known for a payout which is uncertain), is ubiquitous in life, and really any game where the participants don't have perfect information. You are betting even if you don't realize it. You can't op…

I think by your own definition the headline is warranted in its use of gambling. The act of betting on predictions is in service of “being right” ostensibly. But is really just about the monetary reward. I don’t see betting on predictions serving any other purpose. Other risks in life have other purpose, in which the risk is accepted because of the reward of the other purpose. Gambling is risk without any other sort…

It depends on the person making the bet. With sophisticated enough brain scanning technology, we could distinguish between "placing the bet to achieve a feeling" vs. "placing the bet because they believe it is mispriced".

It's not possible for a 3rd party to, at a distance, determine why someone placed a bet in a prediction market. At a casino, it is possible. Most of the games are negative EV. So if someone plays any of the games, then it can't be because they are trying to maximize EV, it must be for some other reason (like a feeling).

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#436

Post by butlike »

nkrisc wrote: post #322
entropyneur wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

Entertainment.

It's also the only vice you don't have to ingest an outside substance for.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#437

Post by butlike »

nkrisc wrote: post #408
sznio wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What is the societal benefit provided by it? Same as beer or any other drug - just a way to have some fun and not destructive provided you can control yourself. Though, the one time I opened a CSGO gun case and felt the dopamine rush, it was way stronger than any drug I've done. Not that I'm a "highly-experienced individual", but alcohol, weed or adderall don't come close to a CSGO case. Gambling feels much riskier.

Those things should really be illegal too, I think, even as someone who enjoys alcohol. The costs to society due to alcohol and the like are massive for essentially no real benefit. Yes, I know what happened during prohibition. That still doesn’t mean alcohol is good for society.

Alcohol is the only painkiller which can be infinitely self-administered. There's value in that. It's quite ancient, been proven to work, which is why it's probably stuck around so long.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#438

Post by butlike »

bradhe wrote: post #290
entropyneur wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.

Except when "gambling adicts" end up as a cover for money laundering and funneling cash to people to buy influence.

People do that with drugs too. I'm not pro gambling, but what's your point?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#439

Post by butlike »

arretevad wrote: post #429
alphazard wrote: post #409

The headline is part of a widespread trend of the word "gambling" being used as synonymous with "betting". This new use isn't constructive, as it makes it difficult to talk about either precisely. Betting (risking something known for a payout which is uncertain), is ubiquitous in life, and really any game where the participants don't have perfect information. You are betting even if you don't realize it. You can't op…

I think by your own definition the headline is warranted in its use of gambling. The act of betting on predictions is in service of “being right” ostensibly. But is really just about the monetary reward. I don’t see betting on predictions serving any other purpose. Other risks in life have other purpose, in which the risk is accepted because of the reward of the other purpose. Gambling is risk without any other sort…

I agree with this

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#440

Post by sowbug »

mminer237 wrote: post #400
sowbug wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? Only in a truth-agnostic sense. Good gamblers in player-banked games (poker; rock, scissors, paper) vs house-banked games (slots) are good at figuring out what the other guy is representing. The actual truth is much less significant.

Well, assuming they're paid out truthfully, it does incentivize learning the actual truth. Unless you're saying that the oracles are falling for fake news? Or you're saying people are intentionally buying the wrong option, getting other people to believe it, and then selling before it becomes worthless? That seems harder than just buying the right option unless you already have a ton of influence to burn.

Closer to the second than the first, but traders probably have less agency than the way you're putting it. They benefit from misdirection, but they don't need to be the ones doing the misdirection. Their special skill is recognizing the effect of misdirection (or simply how events unfold) sooner and more accurately than others.
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