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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#431

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Counter argument is that is NVIDIA friendly to their supply chain? I have to think that maybe they are with their massive margins because they can be - their end buyer is currently willing to absorb costs at no expense. But I don't know, and that will change as their business changes. Your underlying statement implies that whoever is replacing apple is a better buyer which I don't think is necessarily true.

If your customers are known to be antagonistic to business partners, the correct answer is to diversify them as much as you can, even at reasonable costs from anything else. That means deprioritizing your largest customer.

At these scales everyone is antagonistic, it comes with the territory.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#432

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At this scale and volume, it's not really about good faith. Changing fabs is non-trivial. If they pushed Apple to a point where they had to find an alternative (which is another story) and Apple did switch, they would have to work extra hard to get them back in the future. Apple wouldn't want to invest twice in changing back and forth. On the other hand, TSMC knows that changing fabs is not really an option and Apple…

Apple is the company that just over 10 years ago made a strategic move to remove Intel from their supply chain by purchasing a semiconductor firm and licensing ARM. Managing 'painful' transitions is a core competency of theirs.

Doesn't Apple have an ARM "Architectural License" arising from being one of the original founding firms behind ARM, which they helped create back in the 90s for the Apple Newton. That license allows them to design their own ARM-compatible chips. The companies they bought more recently gave them the talent to use their existing license, but they always had the right to design their own chips.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#433
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post #424

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What is odd to me is hearing people talk as if somehow a job is supposed to be intrinsically enjoyable or enriching. Paid labor is and always has been a subservient role that pays exactly the minimum that the market allows for the circumstances. Labor is the next option above slavery and indenture, and now that slavery and indenture are frowned upon, labor has absorbed that space as well. If you want to have some con…

> Labor is the next option above slavery and indenture, and now that slavery and indenture are frowned upon, labor has absorbed that space as well. If we go down this path, what can I say that doesn’t get my account banned and my speech suppressed for what what I would suggest doing to people with your opinion?

We don’t have to go down that path, it’s the path we’re already on.

It’s not the way I think it -should be- but it is the way that it is. The incentive alignment keeps it at that local minima, and every attempt to move it to a new one so far has introduced so many perverse incentives that it ultimately causes the regression or even complete failure of the economies it is implemented in.

I don’t know what the answer is that maximises human happiness and minimises human misery, but I suspect it lies well outside of the paradigm of conventional market economics.

Within the dominant paradigm, It’s all a matter of risk management. With employment, you are paying your employer with your surplus value to handle the risks that you feel powerless to manage. Market risks, capital risks.

In exchange, you accept risks that your opinions and comfort won’t be prioritised, and in some cases even your physical well being.

In effect, you are betting against yourself being able to balance those risks against the risks posed by pursuing profitability.

The ability to manage risks is intersectional with your ability to manage discomfort and privation. When you run out of money, the house wins by default.

That’s why the foundational step for anyone should be to do whatever they must to obtain a safe fallback position. A place to be. A safety net. This is what enables risk accommodation. Without taking risk, there will be no advancement. If you don’t have a fallback plan, a safe spawn point, do everything in your power to create one, at least for your children.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#435

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TSMC holds the real power. Apple’s stability and Nvidia’s cash both matter but AI demand is distorting the entire semiconductor ecosystem. There are no easy exits. Building fabs, switching suppliers or waiting out the cycle all carry massive risk. In the long run, competition (where via Intel, Samsung or geopolitical diversification) is the only path that benefits anyone other than TSMC

Trust comes first. That's why TSMC is a pure play fab. Unless there's something that can 100% guarantee protection for fabless players like Apple, no one will trust Samsung or Intel. Fabless players' IPs are their entire business. It'll be hard to trust Intel given Intel's past behavior, especially against AMD.

Hasn't Apple recently made a deal with Intel?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#436
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post #18

Tim Cook failing on the Cook doctrine ("We believe that we need to own and control the primary technologies behind the products that we make") is ironic.

I'm sure if Apple could manage to run a fab with the quality and costs they get with TSMC, they would. I have little doubt they've been pushing forward on that mission.

I have heard not even a rumor that they are working on something like that.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#437
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post #139

As a heavy user of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google AI APIs, I’m increasingly tempted to buy a Mac Studio (M3 Ultra or M4 Pro) as a contingency in case the economics of hosted inference change significantly.

M3 Ultra with DGX Spark is right now what M5 Ultra will be in who knows when. You can just buy those two, connect them together using Exo and have M5 Ultra performance/memory right away. Who knows what M5 Ultra will cost given RAM/SSD price explosion?

I have researched a bit more and think your recommendations are spot on. The 256 GB M3 Ultra is probably the best value right now even though it's 2k EUR more expensive than the 96 GB version.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#438

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How did you get into large scale manufacturing and production? Was it a career switch? Downsides? It too fascinates me. Any book recommendations?

It’s also strange because I highly doubt Google has manufactured a billion physical units of anything. Most of their consumer hardware is designed and built by partners, including Pixel.

>> I highly doubt Google has manufactured a billion physical units of anything

Technically, there are billions of transistors in every tensor chip manufactured by Google

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#439
post #322

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You say that, but to me they seem roughly the same as they've been for a good while. Wildly impressive technology, very useful, but also clearly and confidently incorrect a lot. Most of the improvement seems to have come from other avenues - search engine integration, image processing (still blows my mind every time I send a screenshot to a LLM and it gets it) and stuff like that. Sure maybe they do better in some be…

Deepseek, Nvidia and meta are pumping out one paper after another. New and better things are coming. They will just take time to implement, and I doubt they cancel current training runs. So I guess it will take up to a year for the new things to come out Can the bubble burst in this time, because people lose patience? Of course. But we are far from the end.

Papers published does not a convincing "AI" make. But no point to this really, we'll see what happens

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It was sorta implicitly assumed that any business that builds better hardware than Apple would boot them out overnight It's not "build better hardware" though, it's "continue to ship said hardware for X number of years". If someone buys out the entire fab capacity and then goes under next year, TSMC is left holding the bag

It's not that, either. Low-margin, high-volume contracts are the worst business you can take. It devalues TSMC's work and creates an unnatural downward force on the price of cutting-edge silicon. By ignoring Apple's demands they're creating natural competition that raises the value of their entire portfolio. It really is about making better hardware. Apple would be out-bidding Nvidia right now, but only if the iPhone…

> but only if the iPhone had equivalent value-add to Nvidia hardware... iPhones are overpriced and underpowered, most people will agree

I'd argue this from almost the opposite direction - there is no value-add for Apple because high-end smartphones exceeded the performance requirements of their user-base generations ago.

Nvidia has a pretty much infinite performance sink here (at least as long as training new LLMs remains a priority for the industry as a whole). On the smartphone side, there just isn't the demand for drastic performance increases - and in practice, many of us would like power and cost reduction to be prioritised instead.

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