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Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

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Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#431

Post by ulfw »

echelon wrote: post #318
stephen_g wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Public transit is a dream turned nightmare consistently for seventy-five years *In the United States. For reasons we have avoided in much of the rest of the world...

The United States is freaking huge. By the time modern transportation arrived, people were already living all over the country in pockets every which where. We opted for cars and planes to cover the vast distances. And as it turns out, we have some of the best in the world of both of these - and in vast quantities. We do have dense pockets. NYC, in particular, has a nice metro (it just needs to be cleaner and more mo…

> We opted for cars and planes to cover the vast distances. And as it turns out, we have some of the best in the world of both of these

You actually believe that?!

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#432

Post by duskdozer »

SoftTalker wrote: post #293
WillPostForFood wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Auto insurers don't face a "catastrophic liability" bankrupting scenario like home insurers might in the case of a natural disaster or fire.

A bad hail storm comes close. Hail damage can total a car.

Would auto insurers have enough insured cars within the area of a hailstorm to matter though?

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#433

Post by estearum »

nine_k wrote: post #371
estearum wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really. If you have cheap, abundant land it makes no sense to build densely. Look at Houston with ~zero zoning laws and ~infinite sprawl. "A neighborhood" in a high-sprawl suburb wouldn't be able to support local mixed use amenities because even singular "neighborhoods" are gigantic enough to warrant driving across them. Once you're in the car, why would you go to the place 2min down the road instead of the…

It only makes sense to sprawl like in Houston if you never mind spending 3-4 hours commuting to work and back. Or if you can't afford anything better. Ask well-paid people who keep renting apartments in Manhattan, or in downtown SF, to say nothing of Tokyo or Seoul.

I realize "makes no sense" carries a double meaning here. I am speaking of the system-level decisions which end up actually producing infrastructure. You're right that sprawl is absolutely inhumane – we should absolutely nudge processes/incentives such that it's discouraged, but doing so is not as simple as just "get rid of zoning."

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#434

Post by simondotau »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #427
simondotau wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the increasingly rare instances where Tesla's solution is making mistakes, it's pretty much never to do with a failure of spatial awareness (sensing) but rather a failure of path planning (decision-making). The only thing LIDAR can do sense depth, and if it turns out sensing depth using cameras is a solved problem, adding LIDAR doesn't help. It can't read road signs. It can't read road lines. It can't tell if a tr…

Which begs me the question why Tesla took so long to get here? It's only since v12 it starting to look bearable for supervised use. The only answer I see is their goal to create global model that works in every part of the world vs single city which is vastly more difficult. After all most drivers really only know how to drive well in their own town and make a lot of mistakes when driving somewhere else.

Path planning (decision-making) is by far the most complicated part of self-driving. Waymo vehicles were making plenty of comically stupid mistakes early on, because having sufficient spatial accuracy was never the truly hard part.

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#435

Post by LightBug1 »

jerlam wrote: post #266
nradov wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consumers who mock Tesla (and other auto manufacturers) that deliver continuous updates are rapidly dying off or moving into assisted living facilities. They're not going to be buying many new cars in coming years. Pursuing that market segment seems like literally a "dead" end.

Tesla owners aren't that young. This site claims the average age of Tesla owners is 48 (updated for 2025): https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/11/tesla-owner-demograph... Which should not be that surprising. Teslas were priced as premium vehicles initially, and then dropped as competitors appeared and to take advantage of tax credits. Teslas also benefit dramatically from owning a garage and adding a charger to it, w…

>>Teslas aren't cool anymore, they are what your parents and your Uber driver has.

Exactly.

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#436

Post by estearum »

bobthepanda wrote: post #387
estearum wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really. If you have cheap, abundant land it makes no sense to build densely. Look at Houston with ~zero zoning laws and ~infinite sprawl. "A neighborhood" in a high-sprawl suburb wouldn't be able to support local mixed use amenities because even singular "neighborhoods" are gigantic enough to warrant driving across them. Once you're in the car, why would you go to the place 2min down the road instead of the…

Houston doesn't have zoning laws, but it does have private deed covenants enforced by the city which effectively work as zoning laws. https://www.houstontx.gov/planning/Neighborhood/deed_restr.h...

These allegedly cover only ~25% of residential lots in HTX (mostly the wealthy ones). So sure that's a similar tool and probably distorts things, but I would be very shocked to hear this is anywhere near as important as the infinite supply of ultra-cheap land on the outskirts of town plus public subsidized roads (which will eventually bankrupt the city).

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#437

Post by LightBug1 »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #239
nradov wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The consumers who mock Tesla (and other auto manufacturers) that deliver continuous updates are rapidly dying off or moving into assisted living facilities. They're not going to be buying many new cars in coming years. Pursuing that market segment seems like literally a "dead" end.

That's my impression too. You'd need to be 80 years old to be excited by a toyota.

Says someone who seems to have absolutely no idea about 'car culture' and no realisation about just how un-cool Tesla's have become.

I associate them with their wanker of a CEO, Uber drivers, and parents complaining about being stung on EV depreciation.

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#438

Post by potato3732842 »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #83
TulliusCicero wrote: post #18

Autonomy subscriptions are how things are going to go, I called this a long time ago. It makes too much sense in terms of continuous development and operations/support to not have a subscription -- and subscriptions will likely double as insurance at some point in the future (once the car is driving itself 100% of the time, and liability is always with the self driving stack anyway). Of course, people won't like this…

Agreed, it seems inevitable that autonomy and insurance are going to be bundled. 1. Courts are finding Tesla partially liable for collisions, so they've already got some of the downsides of insurance (aka the payout) without the upside (the premium). 2. Waymo data shows a significant injury reduction rate. If it's true and not manipulated data, it's natural for the car companies to want to capture some of this upside…

Waymo does a lot of urban miles and they do so fairly timidly. The flip side of the that coin is Tesla FSD and you don't hear people simping for their safety record much around here.

What if the difference between human and computer is basically nil (for the next ten years or so) and turns out to cost as much as glass coverage?

Furthermore, it's not like you can slap this stuff on a 2000 Ford Tarus. You're inherently incurring the insurance burden of a fancy modern car with obscenely expensive everything to even get into the kind of vehicle that could/would be equipped with autonomy.

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#439

Post by simondotau »

KeplerBoy wrote: post #428
simondotau wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the increasingly rare instances where Tesla's solution is making mistakes, it's pretty much never to do with a failure of spatial awareness (sensing) but rather a failure of path planning (decision-making). The only thing LIDAR can do sense depth, and if it turns out sensing depth using cameras is a solved problem, adding LIDAR doesn't help. It can't read road signs. It can't read road lines. It can't tell if a tr…

Sensing depth is pretty important though. Especially in scenarios where vision fails, radar for example works perfectly fine in the thickest of fog.

In "scenarios where vision fails" the car should not be driving. Period. End of story. It doesn't matter how good radar is in fog, because radar alone is not enough.

Re: Rivian Unveils Custom Silicon, R2 Lidar Roadmap, and Universal Hands Free

#440

Post by LightBug1 »

rootusrootus wrote: post #234
general1465 wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's be real. A staggering amount of drivers are incapable to switch on Automatic Cruise Control or trigger automatic parking. They know how to start the car, how to switch lights and wipers on/off and that's about it. Paying subscription for something what they are never going to use is going to be a hard sell.

And to be even more real, a staggering amount of drivers won't be able to afford an autonomous driving subscription even if they wanted to. Or a car new enough or in good enough condition to have functional self driving.

This is the real truth.

For all of the Musky wank chat about the future, with FSD, robots, and popping over to Australia on a Starship ... a vanishingly small amount of people will actually be able to afford it once they "get the pricing right".

We're talking about some impressive technology ... doused in snake oil from the top.

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