Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

431–440 of 693 posts

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#431

Post by modo_mario »

kome wrote: post #373
modo_mario wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I genuinely have zero idea what you're looking for if the literal perfect fit isn't it. Maybe someone on a visa that can't leave and will take peanuts.

how the tech world is becoming trumpian-like is a funny thing to witness - try to unionize next time

>try to unionize next time

Amazon had a whole paper about how bringing migrants and diversity makes unionization less likely and successful. It's part of the point.

Also it's not just the US. Here in Europe it's the same. Hell the government spent it's money trough the employers org training Moroccans to become programmers to then bring em in. I knew a fair few programmers who believe this is all just for low skill low paying jobs as if paying better wages for those is impossible and as if those deserve to be undercut. The weird thing is how this kind of plainly rightwing economic rhetoric is often masquerading as left wing.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#432

Post by bluGill »

aydyn wrote: post #300
SilverElfin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Much of the (American) millennials generation believes a story that they’re worse off. I feel it is a convenient story for people to tell themselves and blame someone else for their perceived losses. But I pulled up several articles supporting my claim with a quick search, even though the opposite narrative is more…

I've read this as well, heres an economist article with a graph: https://archive.ph/Y3vvz However, there are certainly a lot of conflicting studies and data out there. And to be honest, it doesnt feel true given how much young people complain on the internet. Its hard to see which asserion is correct. It isnt necessarily correct just because one study says its so.

People complain. Boomers conplained too back in the day - still do, but about different things.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#433

Post by ahtihn »

fooker wrote: post #286
ahtihn wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, just save 100k out of your 170k comp, that's totally how normal people operate. And not only that, also pick the right stocks rather than just sticking everything in an index! Just magically turn 10x 100k into 10M!

You do not understand compounding growth. You could have looked up the numbers for indices yourself, but here you go - S&P500 -> ~4 million NDXT (top 100 tech) -> ~14 million. > just save 100k out of your 170k comp Yes, that was my starting salary, and that's almost exactly what I saved. This calculation assumes your salary is somewhat constant and maxed out as the person I was responding to claimed, but in my experi…

Your math seems way off?

NDXT went from ~2300 in 2015 to ~12500 in 2025. That's ~5.5x return. So even if you had your whole 1M saving in 2015, you'd only have 5.5M now. No idea how you get nearly 3x that?

And it's way worse if you take the actual scenario which is 100k added every year instead of starting with the 1M.

S&P500 is worse yet, at about 3.5x total return if you had the whole million at the start.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#434

Post by watwut »

reactordev wrote: post #423
ungovernableCat wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s just generic advice that doesn’t even really apply to the fresh grads, their issue is not having any entry point to a career anymore. I graduated 10 years ago and it’s a day and night difference. Whatever worked for me in 2015 will not work for a fresh grad today, the game is completely different.

But crying about not having a door to walk through isn’t going to change anything. I graduated 20 years ago and it was different when you graduated just as it is different now. Things change. Economies change. Life changes. The advice I give is simply because that’s the only thing you can change . You and your habits. I’m all for revolution. I’m all for socialism w/ a sprinkle of free market capitalism. I’m all for t…

>But crying about not having a door to walk through isn’t going to change anything.

Why is it such a problem for you that people talk about it openly? Why the need to pretend that everyone can have this under control? It seems to me that your advice is just about making you feel better about the situation, about pretending to ourselves that all issues are individual failures, that the world is fair.

I do not see people who argue with you calling for revolution, I am seeing them trying to talk about objective state of the world. You seem to be rejecting that description, because it involves things you or them cant control.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#435

Post by cyanydeez »

8f2ab37a-ed6c wrote: post #330
seanw444 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I genuinely have zero idea what you're looking for if the literal perfect fit isn't it. The simple answer is that they probably had no intention of hiring you, or anybody, in the first place. The amount of fake job listings is absurd.

Why do they bother wasting time on interviewing the person though? Or does it never get that far?

Besides legal requirements, job hiring is a growth metric.

All of silicon valley is playing a stupid bubble game.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#436

Post by yahoozoo2 »

arnonejoe wrote: post #59
bequanna wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know this is the bottom?

You don’t know until unemployment and GDP numbers are released. Generally when the fed starts making successive rate cuts, the economy is doing poorly. Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held power. So maybe that is also why I think we have a little way to go before things get better. I’m not sure why that is and I don’t want to start a political debate. Things will get better. They always d…

And except for Jimmy Carter, every president before the Republican in power during the recession was a Democrat.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#437

Post by noitpmeder »

mollusc-engine wrote: post #292
fHr wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but isn't the pay shit? like making 1/3th is not a win in my books.

I have hella money.

You'll have to give some context. What did hella mean? How many months of your current spend rate do you have in the bank?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#438

Post by fransje26 »

pfisherman wrote: post #213

My pet theory is that we are experiencing stagflation, but only people >70 years old have ever really experienced it before, so most people are just scratching their heads wondering how it’s possible that stocks keep going up (inflation) while jobs are disappearing (stagnation). I am most definitely not an economist, nor am I qualified to play one on tv.

> nor am I qualified to play one on tv.

No worries, the ones that are playing economists on TV are not qualified either.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#439

Post by chelmzy »

shubb wrote: post #412
actionfromafar wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone posted this already but a more useful "net worth" is how big of a shock can take without paying multiples on the sticker price. And even homes are now sieving into institutional buyers. https://medium.com/newco/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6d...

Net worth is a funny metric. Joe has a 300k house with 100k equity and 200k mortgage. He has 100k in stocks in a 401k. Net worth negative 100k. Pete has $300 in his cheques account, and isn't eligible for loans or mortgage. Net worth positive $300 Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

Most people would consider Joe's networth to be $200k.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#440

Post by taneq »

orwin wrote: post #355
SilverElfin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps true if you go east far enough, seems objectively wrong for the majority of the west though. Much of the (American) millennials generation believes a story that they’re worse off. I feel it is a convenient story for people to tell themselves and blame someone else for their perceived losses. But I pulled up several articles supporting my claim with a quick search, even though the opposite narrative is more…

That's the average. Please compare the median wealth (especially seeing the absurd paper wealth of crypto bro and stock influencers who are almost exclusively millennials). [Edit] also inflation is calculated based on average consumption. So you will notice that toys, clothing and electronic devices (TVs, cooking robots), all cheaper and cheaper (due to enshitiffication and quality decrease) count more for inflation…

I feel like your edited-in point is glossed over FAR too often. We talk about inflation like it’s some objective measure when it’s arbitrary as f@$k and mostly only reflects what the current arbiters of inflation want it to reflect.

A great recent example was the Australian decision to add capital gains on a primary residence as a profit (ie. negative expense) when calculating inflation. All of a sudden inflation was very reasonable despite the fact that established homeowners and their families were choosing between groceries and mortgage payments… but in terms of their net worth, YAY! They’re getting ahead!

Post reply on HN