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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

derekthompson.org

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Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#431

Post by fragmede »

bespokedevelopr wrote: post #388
AlecSchueler wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it might be like when Grok was programmed to talk about white genocide and to support Musk's views. It always shoehorned that stuff in but when you asked about it it readily explained that it seemed like disinformation and openly admitted that Musk had a history of using his business to exert political sway. It's maybe not really "caring" but they are harder to cajole than just "advertise this for us."

For now anyways. There’s a lot of effort being placed into putting up guardrails to make the model respond based on instructions and not deviate. I remember the crazy agents.md files that came out from I believe Anthropic with repeated instructions on how to respond. Clearly it’s a pain point they want to fix. Once that is resolved then guiding the model to only recommend or mention specific brands will flow right in…

Golden Gate Claude says they know how to do that already.

https://www.anthropic.com/news/golden-gate-claude

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#432

Post by TimonKnigge »

9rx wrote: post #373
ninetyninenine wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN isn't always right. There was massive pushback against self driving and practically everyone was saying it would fail and is a bubble. The level of confidence people had about this opinion was through the roof. Like people who didn't know anything would say it with such utter confidence it would piss me off a bit. Like how do you know? Well they didn't and they were utterly wrong. Waymo showed it's not a bubble. A…

> Waymo showed it's not a bubble. Waymo showed that under tightly controlled conditions humans can successfully operate cars remotely. Which is still really useful, but a far cry from the promise of everyone being able to buy a personal pod on wheels that takes you to and fro, no matter where you want to go, while you sleep that the bubble was premised on. In other words, Waymo has proven the bubble. It has been 20 y…

> Waymo showed that under tightly controlled conditions humans can successfully operate cars remotely.

My understanding was that Waymo’s are autonomous and don’t have a remote driver?

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#433

Post by 9rx »

TimonKnigge wrote: post #432
9rx wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Waymo showed it's not a bubble. Waymo showed that under tightly controlled conditions humans can successfully operate cars remotely. Which is still really useful, but a far cry from the promise of everyone being able to buy a personal pod on wheels that takes you to and fro, no matter where you want to go, while you sleep that the bubble was premised on. In other words, Waymo has proven the bubble. It has been 20 y…

> Waymo showed that under tightly controlled conditions humans can successfully operate cars remotely. My understanding was that Waymo’s are autonomous and don’t have a remote driver?

They are so-called "human in the loop". They don't have a remote driver in the sense of someone sitting in front of a screen playing what looks like a game of Truck Simulator. But they are operated by humans.

It's kind of like when cruse control was added to cars. No longer did you have to worry about directly controlling the pedal, but you still had to remain the operator. In some very narrow sense you might be able to make a case that cruise control is autonomy, but the autonomous car bubble imagined that humans would be taken out of the picture entirely.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#434

Post by FridgeSeal »

thisisit wrote: post #340
aurareturn wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where's the business value? Right now it doesn't really exist, adoption is low to nonexistent outside of programming and even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers. I have a friend who works at PwC doing M&A. This friend told me she can't work without ChatGPT anymore. PwC has an internal AI chat implementation. Where does this notion that LLMs have no value outside of progr…

> This friend told me she can't work without ChatGPT anymore I am curious what kind of work is she using ChatGPT such that she cannot do without it? > ChatGPT released data showing that programming is just a tiny fraction of queries people do People are using it as search engine, getting dating advice and everything under the sun. That doesn't mean there is business value - so to speak. If these people had to pay say…

> what kind of work is she using ChatGPT such that she cannot do without it?

Given they said this person worked at PwC, I’m assuming it’s pointless generic consultant-slop.

Concretely it’s probably godawful slide decks.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#435

Post by tim333 »

ForHackernews wrote: post #159
emp17344 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed… I feel increasingly alienated because I don’t understand how AI is providing enough value to justify the truly insane level of investment.

The same way that NFTs of ugly cartoons apes were a multi-billion dollar industry for about 28 months. Edit: People are downvoting this because they think "Hey, that's not right, LLMs are way better than non-fungible apes!" (which is true) but the money is pouring in for exactly the same reason: get the apes now and later you'll be rich!

It's not really like punters hoping to flip their apes to a greater fool. A lot of the investment is from the likes of Google out of their own money.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#436

Post by tim333 »

donatj wrote: post #123

I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…

Are they rushing to use AI? Personally I know one person who's a fan and about 20 who only use it as a souped up Google search occasionally.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#437

Post by [deleted] »

hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

[deleted]

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#438

Post by tim333 »

hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

>the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important...

I don't think that's true. The people who think AI is important call it AI. The skeptics call it LLMs so they can say LLMs won't work. It's kind of a strawman argument really.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#439

Post by ForHackernews »

tim333 wrote: post #435
ForHackernews wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same way that NFTs of ugly cartoons apes were a multi-billion dollar industry for about 28 months. Edit: People are downvoting this because they think "Hey, that's not right, LLMs are way better than non-fungible apes!" (which is true) but the money is pouring in for exactly the same reason: get the apes now and later you'll be rich!

It's not really like punters hoping to flip their apes to a greater fool. A lot of the investment is from the likes of Google out of their own money.

I don't think Softbank gave OpenAI $40 billion because they have a $80 billion business idea they just need a great LLM to implement. I think they are really afraid of getting left behind on the Next Big Thing That Is Making Everyone Rich.
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