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OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#431

Post by mgh95 »

empath75 wrote: post #357
mgh95 wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What revenues do these GPUs generate for OpenAI? OpenAI is not currently profitable, and it is unclear if its business model will ever becomes profitable -- let alone profitable enough to justify this investment. Currently, this only works because the markets are willing to lend and let NVIDIA issue stock to cover the costs to manufacture the GPUs. That's where the belief that we are in a bubble comes from.

Amazon lost money every year for the first 9 years of it's existence and people said it was a bubble the entire time.

Amazon was gross margin profitable -- and significantly so -- the entire time.

It just turns out they were a server farm subsidizing a gift shop.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#433

Post by huijzer »

nilkn wrote: post #398
seydor wrote: post #270

We are way past peak LLM and it shows. They are basically advertise spacing heating as if it's some sort of advancement, while the tech seems to have stagnated, and they re just making the horses faster. The market should have punished this

It's 100% plausible and believable that there's going to be a spectacular bubble popping, but saying we are way past peak LLM would be like saying we were way past peak internet in 1999-2001 -- in reality, we weren't even remotely close to peak internet (and possibly still aren't). In fact, we were so far from the peak in 2001 that entire technological revolutions occurred many years later (e.g., smartphones) that ju…

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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#434

Post by paxys »

onesociety2022 wrote: post #404
paxys wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increase in share price doesn't provide extra cash to a company. They'd have to issue new shares for that.

It does help with employee stock compensation. If your stock doubled in the past year, then you just need to dole out 50% of shares as last year in equity refreshers to retain talent.

Nvidia probably has the opposite problem - employee stock has appreciated so much that you have to convince them not to retire.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#435

Post by neutronicus »

Rebuff5007 wrote: post #265
Rover222 wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My employer spends $100k/month or more on OpenAI fees. Money well spent, in both product features and developer process. This is just one fairly small random startup. Thousands of companies are spending this money and making more money because of it.

Curious what makes you think the money is well spent. I can maybe digest the fact that it helped prototype and ship a bit more code in a shorter time frame... but does that warrant in enough new customers or a higher value product that would justify $100k a month?!

Some of that $100k/month might be powering the features, rather than supporting development.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#436

Post by dismalaf »

sharpshadow wrote: post #394
dismalaf wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one's implying it's fake money or resources, only that will no clear path to profit eventually the money will stop flowing and valuations will implode.

It’s a global AI race, there is more at stakes than profit.

There was also a global AI race in the 80's...

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#437

Post by tgv »

zuInnp wrote: post #49

Yeah, who cares about the enviroment... who needs water and energy, if you AI agent can give you better pep talk

When fucking up the human mind isn't enough. This is really villainous.

And before you think that's nonsense, let's not forget these people are accelerationists. Destroying the fabric of society is their goal.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#438

Post by ViscountPenguin »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #416
gpm wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is adding significantly more solar, and slightly more wind, than natural gas every year. This doesn't have to be placed where people already are, but can be placed where energy is the cheapest, which favours solar and wind substantially more than gas (or nuclear). The reasonable (cost effective, can be done quickly) thing to do is put this wherever you can generate solar + wind the most reliably, build out a g…

Trump is personally and vindictively against green energy. He wants coal and gas.

When the price of gas is so much higher than solar, that hardly matters. No reason the data centre have to be in the US.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#439

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

rapsey wrote: post #349
Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That quote definitely has some insane survivor bias in it. Optimists go bankrupt or something and you blame them on their work ethic or something and you discard any of those optimists who didn't really succeed and cherry pick those optimists which went right... Its a classic survivorship bias. I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI for returns and its definitely a bubble or approaches i…

> I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI The russel 2000 index just made an all time high. The bull market is diverse and global. Indexes of many countries are also at all time highs.

I am pessimistic in US S&P 500 for the most part actually given how concentrated it is in AI (refer to that hank green video)

I also didn't know that the other world's stocks are doing fine actually. but maybe there is a difference in economy and stocks at this point...

I believe that we can all surely agree on the legendary john bogle's philosophy and in the current day and age realize that us s&p stocks are too centralized on ai and world stocks can be better...

Regarding russel 2000 index. I feel like a lot of money trickles down from the AI hype but its honestly great that russel is doing great.

The point I am trying to make is that atleast for US right now, its political system is so shaky that I can't trust its economical system and there is no denying that if the AI bubble bursts, then it would bleed the whole economy at this point including russel.

There was a great hank green video which I recommend about this concept https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZMFp-mEWoM

Also, A lot of countries are definitely in turmoil right now so I am actually surprised by your statements that world economy is doing quite high, maybe stock markets are just another asset class which have gotten so inflated that they are out of touch from the ground reality... (Something I heard in an atrioc video)

I am definitely a bit surprised to hear that the world stocks are doing fine from all the bloodbath of tarrifs and some political issues the world is facing right now...

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#440

Post by neutronicus »

jenkinomics wrote: post #303
vessenes wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They account internally for each model separately; Dario said they even think of each model as a separate company on Dwarkesh some time ago. Inference services are wildly profitable. Currently companies believe it’s economically sensible to plow that money into R&D / Investment in new models through training. For reference, oAI’s monthly revs are reportedly between $1b and $2b right now. Monthly. I think if you do a…

Again with the "this is very profitable if you don't account for the cost of creating it?" Then my selling 2 dollars for 1 dollar is a wildly profitable business as well! Can't sell them fast enough! Why does it seem like so many people have ceased to think critically?

OpenAI claims that each GPT generation has sold enough inference at high enough margin to recoup the cost of training it.

The company overall is still not profitable because these proceeds are being used to fund training the next GPT generation.

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