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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#431
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is Ccjaas2004. I'm not 100% sure on the letters, but the year is easy to see. Hopefully, they've changed their password sometime in the past 21 years.

It's ok, comes back clean on https://haveibeenpwned.com/Passwords , probably a few more years of life left in it!

Ah thanks for that. I've been meaning to change my password for a while, looks like this is a strong choice then.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation started the year after the Fed was created. See "Monetary History of the United States" by Milton Friedman.

Can you quote where Friedman says “inflation [in America] started the year after the Fed was created”? What you may be trying to say is until about 1900 there was little secular ( i.e. fundamental long-term) inflation, given price levels oscillated more than they moved [1]. But the change to steady inflation pre-dates the Fed. And the secular shift to constant inflation starts in WWII, not 1914 or 1976. [1] https://w…

The chart I showed did not show "steady inflation" before the Fed. The Depression is a bit of a special case, the deflation there was also caused by the Fed and their misunderstanding of how to adapt to changing conditions.

"The Federal Reserve System therefore began operations with no effectiye legislative criterion for determining the total stock of money. The discretionary judgment of a group of men was inevitably substituted for the quasi-automatic discipline of the gold Standard." pg 193

"The stock of money, which had been rising at a moderaterate through-out 1914, started to rise at an increasing rate in early 1915, rose most rapidly, as prices did, from late 1915 to mid-1917, and then resumed its rapid rise before the end of 1918, rather sooner than prices did. At its peak, in June 1920, the stock of money was roughly double its September 1915 level and more than double the level of November 1914, when the Federal Reserve Banks opened for business." pg 198

"The Reserve System was thus in an asymmetrical position. It had the power to create high-powered money and to put it in the hands of the public or the banks by rediscounting paper or by purchasing bonds or other financial assets. It could therefore exert an expansionary influence on the money stock." pg 213

"The large federal government deficits, totaling in all some $23 billion, or nearly three-quarters of total expenditures of $32 billion from April 1917 to June 1919, were financed by explicit borrowing and by money creation.30 The Federal Reserve became to all intents and purposes the bond-selling window of the Treasury, using its monetary powers almost exclusively to that end. Although no "greenbacks" were printed, the same result was achieved by more indirect methods using Federal Re serve notes and Federal Reserve deposits. At the beginning of U.S. participation in the war, Federal Reserve notes accounted for 7 per cent of high-powered money and bank deposits at Federal Reserve Banks for 14 per cent" pg 217

"The Reserve Board was aware that Bank discount rates were below current market rates throughout 1919, that this was contributing to monetary expansion, and that monetary expansion was contributing to the inflation." pg 222

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#433
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This pre-election BBC summary - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy343z53l1o - pretty clearly spells out what has eventuated, describing it as a "central campaign pledge": > Trump has made tariffs a central campaign pledge in order to protect US industry. He has proposed new 10-20% tariffs on most imported foreign goods, and much higher ones on those from China.

That is not the 40-60-200% tariffs he has placed on things, depending on the day of the week. That uncertainty makes it very hard to manufacture goods or buy raw materials.

It also disrupts JIT supply chains. Companies make decisions with certain variables not being volatile.

You now have a situation where one week the cost of a commodity is X and the following week it could be 2X. The butterfly effect across industries also cannot be predicted.

Many industries also seem to be still recovering from the pandemic period with supply of spare parts still being de-prioritised over making parts available for new units. :/

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also trumps a fascist and NK is communist so the logic is inconsistent.

So NK workers own or control the means of production?

That's not communism. They are all oppressed, impoverished and dehumanised by the mechanism of the state. Like China and the Soviet union.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the immediate profits of capitalists shouldn't be the sole dictator of our economic activities and policies.

That's how you become a poor country. Every country that closed itself off to the rest of the world becomes poor.

How many of them have MAGA-style slogans though? /s

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically China is a dictatorship. The constitution of the People's Republic of China and the CCP constitution state that its form of government is "people's democratic dictatorship". The current president has done much to make his appointment for life, so it is a dictatorship that is on the road towards having a dictator. Cue comparisons to what is currently happening in the US.

Yes, 人民民主专政. A socialist state under the people's democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. I think you're ignoring some of the poetic intention of those words, the idea is that the Marxist collective is the dictator. It's turning the concept on its head to put the people at the forefront. In other contexts such as casual conversation here in the West the term…

So it is a tyranny of the majority? That's not the vibe I get from China at all.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#437
post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The tariffs this time are far in excess of anything he did previously or promised to do while running for office again and took nearly everyone by surprise though.

It didn't take informed people by surprise. We still see people denying that Trump had anything to do with Project 2025, whereas honest informed people knew that he very much did.

Nobody informed saw massive tariffs on India, Brazil, etc. If you were right the stock market wouldn’t have tanked because the smart money would have priced it in.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#438
post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

> tariff them to their death

You’re not “tariffing them to death”, you’re hurting yourself. This would only work if the USA was the main importer of goods from China, which it is not - only about 14%.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there's that much surprise at the tariffs on China; it's the tariffs on the rest of the world, especially friendly countries like Canada that are the big surprises. Also, who believes politicians campaign pledges?

> Also, who believes politicians campaign pledges? Only all the people who voted for them and all the people who voted against them?

US elections have a shockingly low turnout compared to other countries so not the affirmative you were hoping for
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