431–440 of 1001 posts
Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh... https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...
1. It’s not affected by these tariffs 2. It wasn’t used as a basis for the calculation
The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…
Why is the reserve dollar good for Americans? Arguments in favor of reserve currency status make the U.S. economy seem utterly fake. It’s as if the world is paying us to maintain borders frozen in 1945.
The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…
For example, you hear people say that the US invaded Iraq because Iraq was threatening to denominate oil sales in the euro. This particular conspiracy theory used to be more popular ~20 years ago for obvious reasons. Even if true, it's absolutely no threat to the petrodollar. You could sell oil in euros and what would most sellers then do? Immediately convert those euros into USD.
Trade occurs in USD because there's demand for USD not the other way around.
What really underpins the USD is the US military and the US still being the largest economy. So the USD will remain the global reserve currency up until the US collapses and/or another power rises to displace it, which really means the same thing at this point. That might ultimately be China but it's not yet and the Chinese yuan is wholly unsuitable to be a global reserve currency currently.
I'm taking bets, do you think the tariffs will: 1. be rescinded/paused in [0,2) days; 2. be rescinded/paused in [2,4) days; 3. be rescinded/paused in [4,7] days; 4. not be rescinded/paused.
If we could manage the country using HN experts, we'd be incredibly prosperous. People here know so much more than the actual professionals in the government. Only a few people pointed out the obvious. Trump aims to bring everyone to table to renegotiate global commerce. Every country's economic strategy today is to have positive trade with the US and that is unsustainable. A risky tactic, but refreshing after decade…
Throwing the gauntlet in the dirt isn't how you achieve this type of diplomacy, as the world will just form new economical alliances with more predictable trade partners instead of wasting time trying to appease Donald Trump.
> A risky tactic, but refreshing after decades of the old tired policies that brought us the collapse of parts of US manufacturing and so much pain during COVID due to a complete dependence on foreign suppliers for... Well, everything.
By "policies" do you mean US corporations trying to make as much profit as possible by moving manufacturing to cheaper countries?
The result of tariffs, even if manufacturing for some products moves back to the US, will be higher prices for consumers even in the long run as you cannot produce things as cheaply as other countries. In a country where wages have not kept up with inflation the economic pain will keep mounting.
> I don't know if this will work. But I know what we had before wasn't working. We'll see.
Coupled with:
> People here know so much more than the actual professionals in the government.
Is funny to read; If you had those actual professionals in the government, they would be able to show you some serious predictions about how these moves will improve the economy and when you can expect the "golden age" to show up.
I think a lot of people assume the economic consequences like these have not been understood by the WH. Although I don't like this administration I beg to differ: they know what's going to happen, and they expect the coming storm because they seek what follows. They want to repudiate foreign held debt, or devalue it, by revaluation of the USD and they will wear what they think of as a one time economic shock to get t…
The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…
At this point, who is *not* America's enemy?
Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh... https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...
It's even worse, they literally got their formula from a llm model (probably Grok?) => https://bsky.app/profile/dansinker.com/post/3llunnyfeoj2v "To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4. Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al.,…
By that logic, it looks like Pythagoras got his theorem from an LLM...
This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will... The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage. Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in…
I don't know that I agree with this. The US is too large a market to ignore, and this is effectively raising the profit margin for local production. Foreign companies will either move some portion of manufacturing to the US (for the domestic market), or cede the market completely, and I don't know that they're prepared to do that (well, maybe Chinese ones are). Factories have a long lead time, so even if this is abol…
This is the sad thing for US consumers.
If there is now a tariff on Product X that means instead of costing 100 it will now cost 125, I will guarantee you that the price for a locally produced competitor item will be 124.99 The local producers are not going to leave 25% profit on the table.