431–440 of 1001 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
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The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
Invading Taiwan will never be an economically rational action. If it happens, it will be because of internal politics, personal/national myth-making etc. Taiwan is ridiculously favourable terrain for the defenders; if they fight back, there can't be quick victory, and the US will be able to play merry hell with China's naval logistics from day 1 (obviously with escalating levels of firepower available over time as mo…
The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
The US is not going to help defend Taiwan is a fair thesis, but reciprocally, China is not going to attack Taiwan. Even if Russia gets all of it's demands in the peacemaking process with Ukraine, that war has done permanent and lasting damage to it's economy and global position. For China to attack Taiwan, it would give up any hope of continuing it's healthy trends towards increased economic and political importance.…
Assuming the Ukraine is forced to surrender and Russia keeps the territories, Russia's reputation will increase. They'll be able to say they fought NATO and won. Even today, people say with a serious face that Ukraine started the war and many believe it.
Russia is damaged, but if it's allowed to win, it will recover and become a beacon for the global authoritarians/south.
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If China has a seriously good-enough, home-made processor and storage chips, it could gain from a war with Taiwan. If this would mean to cripple the EU's and possibly also US's and to a lesser degree it's own economy through the absence of chips on the market, having that good-enough, home-made processor would be what keeps China afloat, while the rest drowns. And if it could get Taiwan and its chip manufacturing cap…
The EU makes the machines that make the chips Also in Taiwan these machines are fitted with bombs that will detonate if they’re invaded
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> For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. When was this a thing? Britain gave up control "voluntarily". There's been no military conflict whatsoever. Yes, I get that there were changes in law, protests and all sorts of things but those all already happened when Hong Kong was part of China i.e. there was no "invasion".
... the same thing will apply later on after the successful "non-invasion" of Taiwan.
Maybe. I never commented on if the situation is good - just that invasion is the wrong term. Perhaps it should be self-implosion.
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TSMC factories on Taiwan are small fry in the scheme of things and won't really move the needle much, in terms of strategy. Samsung and Intel are pretty comparable in manufacturing capability, within a couple of years really. And most chips you find in cars and ships and missiles and satellites and jets aren't leading-edge either. China is terrified of their access to the sea being blockaded. They'd gladly give up TS…
How would you bock China's access to the sea along it's 14000 km coastline? That woulde be a heck of a blockade, with or without Taiwan.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
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Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
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Is Czechia historically and culturally German? Sort of.
Is Ukraine historically and culturally Russian? Sort of.
Is Pakistan historically and culturally Indian? Sort of.
Once you have to ignore the wishes of the population and resort to historical arguments, forced reunification becomes a conquest.
I certainly wouldn't like my own government to start expansive wars into, say, Silesia, because it used to belong to the Czech crown for 500 years. But I have a say in this. The Chinese population might not.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
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Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios
This is me halfremembering recent comment on HN. It's structured so that the ip is owned by an American company that licenses to ASML or something like that.