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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#431

Post by necovek »

f1shy wrote: post #340
necovek wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the guarantee we'll have only fully up-to-date, safety-checked self-driving vehicles in the future with no messed up sensors or controls (there'll be impaired people doing the checks, right? :))? This is simple with a small, experimental fleet — so we are looking at the best case scenario for these vehicles, but the question is what does it fall down to in a realistic commercial application? That would also be…

The study is about today. I would bot ever think to extrapolate that to “forever in the future” also is only one vendor. That is what the statistic shows and I think is fair comparison against human drivers currently on the street.

The study is about today and certainly has plenty of factual data in there, and their safety record is amazing.

But they are purporting to make this the standard for comparing SDVs and HDVs, and explicitly want this report to influence policy. They say as much in the report.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#432

Post by necovek »

fragmede wrote: post #333
necovek wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the guarantee we'll have only fully up-to-date, safety-checked self-driving vehicles in the future with no messed up sensors or controls (there'll be impaired people doing the checks, right? :))? This is simple with a small, experimental fleet — so we are looking at the best case scenario for these vehicles, but the question is what does it fall down to in a realistic commercial application? That would also be…

If you've used Google Chromecast or Google Chrome, a Tesla, or an Xbox, keeping software up to date isn't the chore it once was. Or you have to update to go online/have the car drive. The "guarantee" is that the other players who were too aggressive and did bad had to exit the industry. Uber killed a woman and exited the industry. Cruise dragged a woman 20 feet and lied about having footage of it, and exited the indu…

How do you upgrade brake pads over the air? Or ensure tyre and wheel conditions? Or any of the other mechanical parts of the car (suspension, axles, transmission in-so-much-it's-still used...) Or ensure sensors are not interfered with? As soon as you get Waymo into private hands (or competitors need to cut corners), you'll start having issues like these.

I don't think hoping for self-driving cars is stupid, and I would certainly love to have one I can trust to take me and my family around safely. But to get to that trust, I want better reporting than what this study provides and proposes :)

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#433

Post by tim333 »

rglullis wrote: post #416
tim333 wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like my tech toys - the usual macbook, iphone, internet etc. provided by big tech. I'm not sure how they are supposed to have harmed me?

This is the type of comment that makes you look either like a privileged elite that is part of Big Tech, or just a clueless moron whose day at the barrel is yet to come. Do you really need a list of ways how Big Tech has harmed society? If things like "Surveillance Capitalism" is not enough, maybe: - the collapse of quality journalism, because SEO and content farms made impossible to maintain a financially sustainabl…

I'm not in SV and was trying to think of ways it had harmed me personally.

I haven't really been affected by any of the above. Maybe the app store thing a bit as I wrote an app and dealing with Apple was hard work. But then I wouldn't have been able to make an app without some company making the device for me to do it on.

Re society, I grew up pre internet and I'd say there are pros and cons. On the plus side you have access to the world's information and video and text communication for free across the planet which you didn't have before. On the minus side that's led to people spending a lot of time staring at their devices and less interacting with each other. Nothing's perfect I guess.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#434

Post by mulmen »

tim333 wrote: post #365
rglullis wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole thing with self-driving cars is that it feels like the story of NASA's space pen. All this money being poured into a technology that would not be needed if the richest country in the world had the common sense of simply getting rid of its car dependency and developed proper public transit infrastructure.

>technology that would not be needed if... developed proper public transit infrastructure NYC and London have had 'proper' public transit for over a century. It's handy but not that great. I was on a 52 year old Bakerloo line tube train the other day and they are much like modern tube trains, if grubbier. It's not going to suddenly turn wonderful and solve everything. (typed on a London bus) Also while I'm not sure a…

Why the dig at the Space Pen? Robot drivers rely heavily on GPS which was made possible in part by the Space Pen.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#435

Post by valval »

Brian_K_White wrote: post #283
mentos wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like I saw a self driving concept in the last few years where the headlights had eyes that could appear to be looking at you to signal that it was aware of your presence?

I'm pretty sure I would hate that. I want information and feedback, not misrepresentation or infantalization. I guess it depends how they did it exactly. If it looked like an animal or cartoon character etc, that's what I would hate. If it wasn't pretending to be an aware and caring being, that would be ok.

I think you’re the epitome of “you can’t please everyone”.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#436

Post by mulmen »

zahlman wrote: post #366
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if we took all those resources being out into "autonomous vehicles" and developed public transit first Waymo has raised about $11bn [1]. That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. These things aren't competing. To the extent we can compare them on capital efficiency, it's not a good look for American public transit. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10…

>That is at best 4 miles of New York subway [2]. It's a third of a train between Bakersfield and Merced [3]. Bakersfield to Merced is 171 miles of intercity high-speed rail. It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency, and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit". 22 years ago in Toronto, the Sheppard line (3.4 mi, underground) was built for less…

> It's unclear to me why Californians need to make such trips with any significant frequency,

Because they’re both between Los Angeles and San Francisco.

> and it's certainly not what I'd normally think of as "public transit".

If not trains between cities what do you consider public transit?

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#437

Post by valval »

fragmede wrote: post #364
coryfklein wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurance for human drivers stays the same. If anything, it goes down, because the more Waymo-level autonomous vehicles on the road, the safer it is overall. Insurance isn't a zero sum game, where "less insurance spent on autonomous vehicles" means the insurance companies have to make up for it somewhere else. In a way, "car driving getting safer overall" isn't great for car insurers, because they make money financin…

Insurance is, however, a for profit corporation, out to maximize profits, so they'll charge both groups a premium, and then add a service fee on top of that.

Insurance prices aren’t made up, they’re calculated based on probable costs.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#438

Post by rglullis »

tim333 wrote: post #433
rglullis wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the type of comment that makes you look either like a privileged elite that is part of Big Tech, or just a clueless moron whose day at the barrel is yet to come. Do you really need a list of ways how Big Tech has harmed society? If things like "Surveillance Capitalism" is not enough, maybe: - the collapse of quality journalism, because SEO and content farms made impossible to maintain a financially sustainabl…

I'm not in SV and was trying to think of ways it had harmed me personally. I haven't really been affected by any of the above. Maybe the app store thing a bit as I wrote an app and dealing with Apple was hard work. But then I wouldn't have been able to make an app without some company making the device for me to do it on. Re society, I grew up pre internet and I'd say there are pros and cons. On the plus side you hav…

You don't need to live in SV to be in its bubble.

> I wouldn't have been able to make an app without some company making the device for me to do it on.

If you are not asking yourself why should you need to ask permission to develop an app, I'm sorry but you are lost beyond repair. Stockholm's Syndrome is real.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#439

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rglullis wrote: post #426
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Self-driving cars or not, the US is still going to be an expensive, inefficient country that can boast about its amazing economy, yet most people living there are at third-world country levels of development For fuck’s sake, the world’s largest rail system and navigable waterways say hello. I’ve advocated for public transit. But it’s turning into zealotry when an $11bn project showing actual gains is turned into a…

If Waymo/Google/Alphabet really cares about people's safety and this is nothing but a pet project where the amount raised ($11bn) in 15 years is ~3% of their whole revenue in 2023, they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures. Until then, the whole thing is nothing but a Trojan horse to let encroach themselves even more into another aspect of our lives. Also: > world’s…

> they wouldn't mind open sourcing their whole system, including for other commercial ventures

You seem to just not like that this is done by Google. (Or by any private entity.) That is fine. I, like, hate this one restaurant in New York. But be honest about your motivations and check your biases.

This isn’t self-driving cars vs public transit debate because there isn’t one. If Google were funding a leg of passenger rail I suspect you’d be similarly incensed.

> world's largest freight rail system

The world’s largest rail system, period. It’s also the largest freight rail system. But passenger and freight are types of rail systems.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#440

Post by leobg »

gruez wrote: post #330
mstade wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was just in CA for a few weeks and drove in SF quite a bit. There are Waymo cars everywhere and from the perspective of a driver I was more than a little cautious driving behind or next to one of them. I would rate their driving as quite good, but their signaling of intent was terrible. More than once did I see them use turn signals, only to never actually turn. Turn the signals on, then off again, then on again, e…

>More than once did I see them use turn signals, only to never actually turn. Turn the signals on, then off again, then on again, eventually turn perhaps but not always. >Humans are terrible at this too, but we also use more subtle and inadvertent signals like the slight movement to the line telling me they're likely about to switch lanes, only to see the signal go on halfway into it. Isn't waymo's behavior preferred…

He said he can’t trust the turn signals. I’m case of a human driver, there would be the behavioral cues to fall back on. But with Waymo, you can’t predict its next move at all.
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