Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think it's likely a bad idea at this point to bet against Elon - he seems to make more good decisions than bad decisions, and is able to attract and keep the talent that is enabling his companies to snowball exponentially towards reaching the abundance of the universe. My deepest hope currently is that the riches of the universe now on the horizon of being relatively easily accessible, in a systematic and efficient…
Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. You can’t deny (I don’t think) that the things he’s done are amazing. He’s in the zone where he’s smelt too many of his farts though, and believes he can do no wrong, which is historically a very bad place to be. I hope, for all of the awesome things he’s said he’d like to do, that they don’t come agutsa due to that
Really?
It's my understanding Elon isn't popular anymore (I could care less), but this point does not help whatever it is you're trying to say. I deal a lot with statistics and making predictions from past performance, and you most definitely can determine future performance with a high amount of accuracy. This shouldn't really need said.
You are probably right about him smelling too many of his farts, but you really hurt your main thesis right off the bat with that first claim.