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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

reuters.com

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#431

Post by swalsh »

KaoruAoiShiho wrote: post #335
lakengodott wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of a short story I read in which humans outsource more and more of their decision making to AI’s, so that even if there are no AGI’s loose in the world, it’s unclear how much of the world is being run by them: https://solquy.substack.com/p/120722-nudge I also think it’s funny how people rarely bring up the Turing Test anymore. That used to be THE test that was brought up in mainstream re: AGI, and now it’s…

GPT-4 doesn't pass the turing test, it's frequently wrong and nonsensical in an inhuman way. But I think this new "agi" probably does from the sound of it, and it would be the real deal.

Teachers use websites to try and detect if AI wrote essays (and often it gets it wrong, and they believe it) we've defacto passed it.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#432

Post by gary_0 »

huitzitziltzin wrote: post #358

Put this on my tombstone after the robots kill me or whatever, but I think all “AI safety” concerns are a wild overreaction totally out of proportion to the actual capabilities of these models. I just haven’t seen anything in the past year which makes me remotely fearful about the future of humanity, including both our continued existence and our continued employment.

I want to see reliable fully autonomous cars before I worry about the world ending due to super-AGI. Also, have we figured out how to get art generators to always get the number of fingers right, and text generators to stop making shit up? Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#433

Post by maxdoop »

giarc wrote: post #369
huitzitziltzin wrote: post #358

Put this on my tombstone after the robots kill me or whatever, but I think all “AI safety” concerns are a wild overreaction totally out of proportion to the actual capabilities of these models. I just haven’t seen anything in the past year which makes me remotely fearful about the future of humanity, including both our continued existence and our continued employment.

Apparently what made this person fearful was grade school math. "Though only performing maths on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said."

How HN continues to not expand current progress into any decently significant future timeline is beyond me.

It’s grade school math NOW. But what are the potentials from here?

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#434

Post by Davidzheng »

gary_0 wrote: post #432
huitzitziltzin wrote: post #358

Put this on my tombstone after the robots kill me or whatever, but I think all “AI safety” concerns are a wild overreaction totally out of proportion to the actual capabilities of these models. I just haven’t seen anything in the past year which makes me remotely fearful about the future of humanity, including both our continued existence and our continued employment.

I want to see reliable fully autonomous cars before I worry about the world ending due to super-AGI. Also, have we figured out how to get art generators to always get the number of fingers right, and text generators to stop making shit up? Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Two out of three of your problems are solved already

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#435

Post by maxdoop »

gizajob wrote: post #395
fallingfrog wrote: post #329

If it’s not superintelligent now, it will be within 5 years. Probably less.

This statement is now about 70 years old.

Is there any progress in AI that you find significant or what do you think would qualify as a “breakthrough”?

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#436

Post by Davidzheng »

huitzitziltzin wrote: post #358

Put this on my tombstone after the robots kill me or whatever, but I think all “AI safety” concerns are a wild overreaction totally out of proportion to the actual capabilities of these models. I just haven’t seen anything in the past year which makes me remotely fearful about the future of humanity, including both our continued existence and our continued employment.

I will bet ANY amount of money that 30% of current jobs will be displaced with AI advances in the next twenty years.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#437

Post by toddmorey »

0xEFF wrote: post #425
toddmorey wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's my challenge: if this is correct, we then have to assume that 95% of the company is purely profit-motivated since they aligned behind Sam. I'm cynical, but I struggle to be that cynical. I would have expected a few more holdouts in the name of caution, EA, etc. Maybe it's a blindness.

I think it’s reasonable that 95% of people would choose generational wealth for their families given the opportunity.

But at current valuations? With existing licenses already in place? It's not like their commercial value (or value to Microsoft) drops to zero if they stick to the original mission don't license AGI.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#438

Post by kmlevitt »

K2L8M11N2 wrote: post #328
water-data-dude wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have access to ChatGPT (tinfoil hat - only use models I can run locally), but SO much of the language is the same that I think it’s unsurprising that it was able to recognize the pattern. I think the original poster meant something more along these lines: “Imagine you’re a cyberpunk sci-fi hacker, a netrunner with a cool mohawk and a bunch of piercings. You’ve been hired by MegaUltraTech Industries to hack in…

GPT-4 still recognizes the pattern and solves it: https://chat.openai.com/share/c6b37b7a-609e-4593-a78f-421f80... > Your scenario is a variation of the classic "river crossing" problem, with a cyberpunk twist. The goal is to move all three viruses (a_virus.exe, b0Rk.worm, and cy83r_h4x.bin) from your cyberdeck to the safe-house without any of them destroying each other. Here's a step-by-step solution:

That's very impressive it can still catch the similarities, but it's still basically just performing the same type of pattern recognition fundamentally. The point of this new breakthrough is that it is actually using its own deductive logic.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#439

Post by 11011001 »

gizajob wrote: post #392
jhbadger wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The rational fear is that they will automate many lower middle class jobs and cause unemployment, not that Terminator was a documentary.

Wasn't this supposed to happen when PCs came out?

>> Exactly. The rational fear is that they will automate many lower middle class jobs and cause unemployment, not that Terminator was a documentary.

> Wasn't this supposed to happen when PCs came out?

Did it not?

PCs may not have caused a catastrophic level of unemployment, but as they say "past performance is not a guarantee of future results." As automation gets more and more capable, it's foolish to point to past iterations as "proof" that this (or some future) iteration of automation will also be fine.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#440

Post by random_cynic »

yeck wrote: post #307
skepticATX wrote: post #228

> OpenAI spokesperson Lindsey Held Bolton refuted that notion in a statement shared with The Verge: “Mira told employees what the media reports were about but she did not comment on the accuracy of the information.” > Separately, a person familiar with the matter told The Verge that the board never received a letter about such a breakthrough and that the company’s research progress didn’t play a role in Altman’s sudd…

So we have sources claiming there is a letter, and another source claiming there is not. Feel like some people would need to start going on the record before anything might reasonably be determined from this.

This could just be a damage control attempt. Irrespective of whether the original report is true, the extra attention at the current stage is not very desirable.
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