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Cisco Acquires Splunk

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Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#431

Post by theogravity »

hyeomans wrote: post #428
theogravity wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The not-insider-trading possibility: It's possible someone was selling contracts as a hedge since the tech market has been really bad this week. A market maker was obligated to buy the contracts. The person selling the contracts gets $22k in premium, and misses out on the pop. The market maker will absolutely exercise the contracts and profit. (This is coming from someone who sold APPL calls expiring tomorrow for .08…

I understood nothing of what you said, what is a good resource/starting point to understand the meaning of this?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/optionscontract.asp

In terms of how the market maker is involved:

https://www.projectfinance.com/options-market-maker/

hedging:

https://www.projectfinance.com/what-is-delta-hedging/

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#432

Post by theogravity »

qeternity wrote: post #423
theogravity wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The not-insider-trading possibility: It's possible someone was selling contracts as a hedge since the tech market has been really bad this week. A market maker was obligated to buy the contracts. The person selling the contracts gets $22k in premium, and misses out on the pop. The market maker will absolutely exercise the contracts and profit. (This is coming from someone who sold APPL calls expiring tomorrow for .08…

This is not quite how things work. Market makers don’t just take risk and not hedge. They would have hedged deltas (by shorting stock) and gamma/vega by selling other stuff (or this offset stuff they had sold previously). Impossible to say whether an MM would have made or lost money but usually gap moves like this cost MM on a net basis.

You're right, and it's something I should have mentioned.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#433

Post by SushiHippie »

dang wrote: post #365

Related ongoing threads: Insider trade on Splunk acquisition? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37599587 Show HN: My Single-File Python Script I Used to Replace Splunk in My Startup - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37600019

And

Cisco pulled out of SentinelOne acquisition after due diligence - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37598299

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#434

Post by sethammons »

bugsense wrote: post #38
tw04 wrote: post #11

Wow - I guess I'm both surprised and completely unsurprised. Surprised because Splunk is a pretty big pill to swallow. Unsurprised because they've obviously been interested in the space for a long time (they attempted to acquire Datadog and got shot down). https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/cisco-r... Good luck Splunk folks - Cisco isn't exactly known for their software innovation in the upper stack…

Splunk is a dead player too. It's a great match.

Splunk is hands down the best log analysis tooling I've used. If not for the hefty price tag, I'd use it for my personal stuff and every workplace I've been. Structured logs and Splunk are the stuff dreams are made of if you care about monitoring the quality of software.

The logs into metrics abilities along with the ability to unlock finding relationships in data is amazing. Mouse over the fields found in logs matching your search and see the top N values for other these keys.

Imagine getting an alert and being able to search your logs for that error message and immediately being able to see it affects these N users disproportionally, that it is split 50/50 in two of your seven regions, only affects version X of your service. A couple more searches to dig in and you can see it is only feature Y with setting Z that is the problem. You switch to a timechart view and can see the moment the error started and the affected user counts. A few more minutes and your support team has a list of known affected users. You decide to monitor this new feature so you quickly create a new dashboard (or panel on an existing dashboard) and a new alert. At no time did you have to declare a field of your structured logs as an index or as searchable or aggregatable.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#435

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

baz00 wrote: post #163
georgyo wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Splunk is a great product with horrible sales and business team. The reason why them _trying_ to get off it is because they have a bunch of stuff that is easy and works in splunk, but don't want to pay the exorbitant licensing, or pay even more to increase their use. But getting off a good product is hard, and they will continue to use it and even pay. The kind of thing Cisco, Oracle, and IBM love are companies with…

Yeah it's easier getting rid of chlamydia than Splunk sales reps.

Chlamydia is actually quite easy to get rid of.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#436

Post by jojobas »

regularfry wrote: post #129
jojobas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies rarely buy other companies in order to make buyee's product better, they buy them to boost the buyer's business or at least remove competition.

They don't buy in order to make the buyee's product better, but continuing to improve the product may be necessary to realise the value of the purchase particularly if regular updates and improvements are a big reason that customers stay with the brand.

It may, or it may not. (Cue Apple buying a CNC laser cutter manufacturer just to get hold of the inventory).

When a company is deemed a good investment it's invested into by financiers, actual companies often buy other companies for other means than developing them further.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#437

Post by chucky_z »

optimalquiet wrote: post #408
yetanotherloss wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was at one point usable but they drove off the hobbyist/small business crowd a long time ago. We do some work setting up elasticsearch tools that aggregate and filter data later sent to central splunk purely to affect a large reduction in license costs.

A question: where did the hobbyist/small business crowd go?

Greylog. ELK.

I think modern solutions would be any of the recent Clickhouse based solutions.

Loki exists but it seems to have a tragically small market share.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#438

Post by drdec »

marcus0x62 wrote: post #175
TylerE wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scientific Atlanta… there’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time. Didn’t they use to make crappy cable boxes, back when cable TV meant a box that connected to the antenna input via coax.

SA made set top boxes along with a bunch of back-end infrastructure to make them work. It was an acquisition that made sense on paper -- Cisco did (does) a lot of business with service providers, they make cable modem termination systems (the headend devices that handle cable modem connectivity,) had dabbled in IP video, so it was a natural evolution to make and sell the rest of the gear you'd need to operate a cable…

> I don't think they were counting on how rapidly Internet streaming would take over

Ironically, those set top makers were in a perfect position to take advantage of it. They could have been Roku - they already had huge market penetration.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#439

Post by mmahemoff »

smilbandit wrote: post #389
nathancahill wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone wasn't surprised: https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1704870849831125446?s=20

My depth of stock trading stops at the buy low sell high level. Can someone explain a little more if you have time? What would have happened to those trades if splunk had went down 20%?

They bought $127 call options (the right to buy Splunk at $127) while Splunk was valued at $119 and the options were due to expire in one day. That's a cheap option to buy, given the improbability of a sudden jump like that.

The only way the buyer could make a profit would be for Splunk to go higher than $127 and if it went significantly higher, they'd stand to make an eye-watering return-on-investment multiple in one day. Which is what happens.

It would be suspicious if this turns out to be a speculative trader making a one-off transaction.

Re: Cisco Acquires Splunk

#440

Post by arcticbull »

aodin wrote: post #388
secfirstmd wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possibly. I guess you can't remove the idea that the information was found through some open means. For all we know the private jets of the Cisco leaders might have been in the same location as those from Splunk.

They bought 1-day options, so they knew the timing of the announcement.

Sounds like something one of the very special folks on WallStreetBets would have done on the basis of half-baked "dd."
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