Blowing holes in Seymour Hersh’s pipe dream

> No, the cost of the Northstream 2 alone was roughly $11 billion. Much of the pipeline could be used, the explosion was only in a small region.

Yes. You are citing the cost of the whole project, with all the infrastructure, pumping equipment, pipelaying ships, etc. The pipe is only one component.

Besides, it doesn't matter if it's "a small region". As soon as the pipe gets full of water, it's basically dead in the water (pun intended). Lookup how these pipes get built. The sections are connected and hermetically sealed above the water, and then lowered so that no water gets in.

You seem to be imagining that pumping out a few countries length of seawater is some kind of an easy task, but it's actually cheaper to disassemble and rebuild the whole thing.

> It was filled, but nothing was delivered into Germany. There was also no permission given to do that.

That's just rhetorics. If you turn off the water tap at your home, that doesn't mean the water is no longer delivered. It's still there, practically at your home. Not sure what "permissions" you are referring to.

> Russia has all the responsibility. They attacked the Ukraine. It's their choice. It has nothing to do with a 'privilege'.

I am not talking about Ukraine. I am talking about weird European attitude like it's some kind of privilege to supply them like everyone around owes them something. If they don't want Russian gas, then that's just businesses.

> Realistically Russia has removed themselves from being someone who we want to trade with for at least a decade. They are not a partner and they are not reliable. > Russia started a war against not only the Ukraine, but also against the rest of Europe and they used the energy dependency as a weapon.

Well that's just propaganda bullshit.

First of all you've said it yourself that it's a matter of politics. European leaders themselves decided to use the energy in political context and saying that Russia "uses energy as a weapon" when their politics had bitten them in their collective ass is plain stupid.

And secondly it was Europe who decided to engage into economic war with Russia and that was the cause of all the disruptions - that's anything but being "reliable" on their part. Russia merely didn't do anything to appease the stubborn princess who decided to shot herself in the leg. I mean, c'mon, there was a moment when Europe actually expected to receive gas, but not pay for it due to sanctions - how idiotic is that? This exactly the kind of weird attitude I was talking about above.

And given the confessions of former German chancellor, former French president, former and current Ukraine presidents making statements like "prepared for war" is super rich. We all saw how "well prepared" Russia was - both in combat and in the amount of frozen assets.

I just don't get what the European leaders were expecting. Probably fell victims to the same attitude and totally forgot that when you ruin business relations they actually get ruined and no one owes them anything.

What are the chances that Hersh made up the whole thing? What are the chances that his source is just completely faking him out and he doesn’t know better? If Putin had threatened to “end” some US internet cable to Norway, would anyone be doubting the nature of that threat if the cable suddenly blew up?

> As soon as the pipe gets full of water, it's basically dead in the water (pun intended). Lookup how these pipes get built. The sections are connected and hermetically sealed above the water, and then lowered so that no water gets in.

No, Nord Stream 1 pipeline was filled with water during construction.

Anyway, Russian news agency TASS reported about a possibility of a pipeline repair: https://tass.com/economy/1555677

> If you turn off the water tap at your home, that doesn't mean the water is no longer delivered. It's still there, practically at your home. Not sure what "permissions" you are referring to.

It wasn't open. There was no gas delivered and sold to Germany. "permissions" means that the German authorities would have to allow the Nord Stream AG to deliver natural gas over Nord Stream 2 into the German market. Such a permission was never given.

> I am not talking about Ukraine.

I was talking about Russia. Russia has removed themselves from the European market because of their war against the Ukraine.

> I mean, c'mon, there was a moment when Europe actually expected to receive gas, but not pay for it due to sanctions - how idiotic is that?

There was no such moment.

> I just don't get what the European leaders were expecting

European leaders were expecting that Russia would be a peaceful neighbour. One which one wants to have trade with.

> ruin business relations

Right, Russia ruined its business relations to the west. A customer can choose where to buy from. Europe chose to reduce and minimize economic relations with Russia.

Sure, selling into a foreign market is a privilege. Russia lost that privilege. Given that the trust for Russia is currently zero, it will take many years to repair that - which will be much more complicated than repairing the pipelines.

> No, Nord Stream 1 pipeline was filled with water during construction.

Not exactly, at least not like that: https://www.nord-stream.com/download/document/74/?language=r...

> Anyway, Russian news agency TASS reported about a possibility of a pipeline repair: https://tass.com/economy/1555677

Did you even read the article? "Maybe, possibly, requiring money and time". How does this counter my point that underwater pipes will have to be rebuilt? Are you sure you are not confusing the underwater component of the pipeline with the whole pipeline itself, with all the related infrastructure, compressing stations and so on and so forth?

> It wasn't open. There was no gas delivered and sold to Germany. "permissions" means that the German authorities would have to allow the Nord Stream AG to deliver natural gas over Nord Stream 2 into the German market. Such a permission was never given.

We are going in circles. NS2 was delivering gas up to Greifswald. The fact that Greifswald wasn't delivering it further is not a property of NS2.

> I was talking about Russia. Russia has removed themselves from the European market because of their war against the Ukraine.

"Russia has removed themselves from the European market", yeah, right. This was purely a decision of several (not all, mind you) European states. Followed by "heeeeelp, evil Russia wants to freeze us to death!". All while acting like any interaction with it is some kind of privilege. Pathetic.

> There was no such moment.

Well that is just denialism. Europe expected to freeze the payments as soon as they hit the accounts, along with other assets. The whole shenanigans with paying "with roubles" was exactly about this whole deal. Yeah "technically" they would pay, but Russia would never receive the funds and they would remain circling through European economy by remaining in European banks. This was exactly "such a moment".

> European leaders were expecting that Russia would be a peaceful neighbour. One which one wants to have trade with.

Well if that's your tune, then back at you, I can refer you to Putin's Munich speech in 2007. In any case, you are engaging in demagogy and digressing. Point is, European leaders started an economic war against Russia and suddenly it hit them too. So that's why we are hearing narratives like "Russia using energy dependency as a weapon" - this is basically an attempt to hide incompetence.

> A customer can choose where to buy from. Europe chose to reduce and minimize economic relations with Russia.

Sure, that's just business. And it is you who says that it is Europe's own choice. So tell me, how come the customer making their own choice is whining that "Russia uses energy as a weapon"?

> Sure, selling into a foreign market is a privilege. Russia lost that privilege.

No, normally that's just business relations. It's only "a privilege" with Europe, just like basically any other interaction with it. Which is just another iteration of the same lesson learned time and time again over centuries of interacting with that chauvinistic culture.

> Given that the trust for Russia is currently zero, it will take many years to repair that

Fat chance. This will be Turkey's business from now on. Dealing with Europe directly is worthless pain. And in any case, someone on the other end of the Ukrainian pipeline is still buying a shit load of Russian gas, mixing it and distributing it to the rest of the Europe under the guise of non-Russian gas ("Latvian blend" like schemes). So as long as the funds keep flowing, all this is just a cheap self-appeasing talk.

You'd have to be an American aware of the context of rhetoric involving election buggery, and you'd have to have been around for the hanging chads debacle. You'd have to see how the various forces deploy rhetoric to de-legitimize the President. Or just go back to the Trump era and see how people reacted then.

In short I learned from the best.