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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#431

Post by whimsicalism »

digianarchist wrote: post #357
kragen wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chiang democratic? Sheesh. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiang_Kai-shek#Mass_deaths_un... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Republic_o... : Following the ROC government's retreat to Taiwan on 7 December 1949, the Temporary Provisions together with martial law made the country an authoritarian one-party state despite the constitution. Democratization began in the 1980s. Martial law was lifted in 1987,…

The KMT have an awful track record as being horrifically authoritarian. OP isn’t wrong though contemporary Taiwan is a model democracy in a region where there are few.

I think pinning Taiwan as "last bastion" of some democracy that existed before is incorrect as any honest history of the KMT can see.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#432

Post by nscalf »

rat87 wrote: post #398
tsimionescu wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the dependency of all modern economy on semiconductor industry. I honestly think there is 100% chance that if China invaded Taiwan today, the US would declare war and send troops to defend Taiwan. In contrast, I think there is >0% chance that the US would not declare war on Russia if they did a (tactical) nuclear attack in Ukraine.

No you massively overestimate the importance of economics or semiconductor industry. Whatever will happen to Taiwan has nothing to do with Chips. For China it's about nationalism, for US it's about protecting allies/upholding treaties and protecting democracy from the strongest authoritarian regime. Chips are not important. After all chances are high they might be destroyed even in a successful defense of Taiwan. As…

I don't know where you got the idea that the US will not go to war to protect the US economy, national security, or military capacity, but you are severely misunderstanding the situation. That is why the military exists. We spend the amount we do on the military to support American economic dominance and define the rules on how world trade happens. The reason we are not doing more for Ukraine is because they are not very important to the US, outside of being a buffer against Russia.

Ideas like "protecting democracy" are used to sell citizens on wars they don't care about. The full destruction of TSMC is likely preferred over a Chinese dictated world technological economy. The truth is, if one side has TSMC chips and the other doesn't, what we're talking about may necessitate a total war.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#433

Post by [deleted] »

rat87 wrote: post #399
ecshafer wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish I could remember the origin of this. But a quip on this idea I had read was along the lines of "If China invaded Taiwan and Kansas, the US would send troops to Taiwan first". Whether you want to call Taiwan an ally, a protectorate, vassal or whatever your political standpoint would dictate, the US is very protective of Taiwan.

Yes but not because of the chips

[deleted]

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#434

Post by whimsicalism »

tlear wrote: post #215
intrasight wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Chinese law" - an oxymoron ;) They said they will retake Taiwan and they can and few will really care. So of course they will.

They can't, not even remotely close any time in the next 20 years at least. Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then..…

China can just send cruise missiles to start and ignore beaches.

A major power with 1.2 billion people can take an island of 20 million 80 miles away from its shores.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#435

Post by whimsicalism »

hunterb123 wrote: post #412
bombcar wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Rational" has somehow become synonymous with "good" or "agrees with me" - rationality doesn't have anything to do with those, it just means "not insane". And tyrants can be exceedingly rational; they just have their own goals that they're working towards, not the goals of some theoretical "perfect democracy".

It's insane to farm people for organs and to run concentration camps.

Yes, I think this is a great example of parent commentators point.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#436

Post by nonrandomstring »

ajross wrote: post #353
nonrandomstring wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hoped it was obvious that I chose the word "tech" to mean something less than a grandiose Francis Fukuyama style comment on "The End of Technology".

Yes, but you conflated the two to make your argument. Saying "peak tech is over" to mean "the VC-driven startup grider is out of gas" is fine! Saying that it's over because technology isn't making people's lives better is wrong, because that's what "technology" does , and it doesn't appear to be slowing down to me.

> Saying that it's over because technology isn't making people's lives better is wrong, because that's what "technology" does, and it doesn't appear to be slowing down to me.

I see two errors here.

Defining technology to be "that thing which makes people's lives better" feels weak, even disingenuous, because trivially nuclear missiles and weaponised smallpox are technologies that fail your test.

Therefore, there exist technologies that can make peoples' lives worse.

The second issue is with your subjective "(people's lives getting better) doesn't appear to be slowing down to me". It's a view you're entitled to hold of course. Maybe you are not aware of other perspectives. It may have escaped your notice that in the last decade digital technologies have substantially changed in their nature. They've been at the centre of scandals over the erosion of democratic values, decline in education, attention disorders, social fragmentation, childhood depression, pollution and e-waste, conflict minerals, energy consumption, loss of privacy, dignity and rights... Must I go on?

To hold the idea that "all technologies naturally improve human life" by definition alone seems like a desperate escape from the facts.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#437

Post by patentatt »

nscalf wrote: post #297
JAlexoid wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Em... I doubt that semiconductor industry is the thing to lead us to WW3.

If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.

This is what I don't get. I thought military and aerospace used decades old cpu designs on decades old fab technology for the radiation hardness? Not saying they couldn't benefit from an upgrade, but it's not like Lockheed is putting Nvidia GPUs in fighter jets, right? It doesn't seem like a deal breaker to use a 14nm node compared to a '5nm' node (or whatever is the latest TSMC process). Seems like a weird line to draw in the sand to me. Frankly, seems like the only applications which are make or break on EUV lithography are all gaming related. Am I that off base here? Certainly prices would rise, and critical supply chains would have to be remade, and there would be no more iPhones, but seems like we'd get by just fine for a few years before catching back up and then likely surpassing Taiwan. And it's not like the real brains behind TSMC would willingly help a Chinese controlled takeover, and add on a new layer of corruption and bureaucracy, and in a few years TSMC is irrelevant anyways. And don't forget, TSMC is reliant on ASML, who certainly wouldn't be shipping any more EUV lithography equipment to a Chinese controlled Taiwan.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#438

Post by dirtyid »

georgeecollins wrote: post #365
slickrick216 wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.

It's possible for China to attack fabs in Japan but China attacking Japan is a WW3 level escalation without a doubt. Invading Taiwan may or may not be. Japan is very able to defend itself against China and the Chinese know that. That doesn't mean the Japanese would win a war with China, but who knows? Who would think Ukraine could take on Russia? If China seriously went to war with the US and Japan China could be blo…

Depends on how Sino-US competition veers.

As important as TW is to rejuvenation narrative, it's ultimately the consolation prize versus dismantling US east asian security architecture and securing regional+ hegemony. That's the grand finale battle for the lightcone of future PRC security/prosperity.

>Japan is very able to defend

Japan (and SKR, and TW, and even PH) like most US allies in island chain are are heavily dependant on energy and calorie imports. They can defend themselves against invasion, but they can't defend against PRC turning them into Yemen by wrecking critical infra (cut internet cables, destroy power nodes, mine ports etc). Stuff that make them non viable as a modern economy/society. The flip side of trying to contain PRC during peace is if they try to contain PRC during war, they're stuck in the island chain with a much more autarkic PRC who can spoil region indefinitely. And because US has security commitments, it maybe in PRC interest to draw US to defend allies where PRC forces balance is strongest.

I also think while CCP obviously prefers low cost reuninfication (even if armed), I personally would not be surprised if things escalate much broader because there are larger (and worthwhile) goals / targets. If Australia is going to contribute to even supporting US efforts in TW scenario, then destroying US military infra in AU (Pinegap, Geraldton, Exmouth) will cripple US Indo Pac operation. If anything, there may come a point of favourable future PRC power balance mixed with levels of percieved US antagonism where PRC will be eager for excuses to eliminate US regional/global military infra.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#439

Post by nscalf »

patmorgan23 wrote: post #334
nscalf wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Taiwan is taken off the board for semiconductors, or if all semiconductors have to go through China, that means the entire US military (and all western militaries) are dependent on a geopolitical rival. To allow that would be nothing short of giving away the game.

There are advanced Fabs in Israel, Intel and TSMC are both building next gen Fabs in Arizona. It's not like Twain is the only place with advanced chip fabs(though yes the vast majority of the capacity is there and IIRC thats where their latest process nodes are but I don't think the military is dependent on those absolute cutting edge process nodes)

I agree that this isn't an indefinite problem, but the current state of affairs is that TSMC is irreplaceable on the world's fabrication scene. The military definitely has some need for cutting edge process nodes, though I can't say how much. This is intentionally vague, but it seems safe to say there are a number of high end missile guidance systems, a variety of AI implementations, and drone systems that likely all have some dependence on high end chips. Not to mention the economic reliance on TSMC, Apple alone is ~7% of the S&P500.

I think if we fast forward 5-10 years, Taiwan will not be this much of an absolute, but it will take years for these new fabs to come online. Until there are viable alternatives, Taiwan is a massive risk.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#440

Post by bornfreddy »

foobarian wrote: post #350
PuppyTailWags wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree current systems can turn a web search that presents results in a pleasing manner. I had a horrible time trying to find a specific musician's work on YouTube just last night. It kept recommending me completely unrelated vids as if I was browsing just to browse. It couldn't seem to comprehend that even though I usually watch cute cat videos today I am searching for music, even when I was exact quoting the au…

The current Alexa experience is like guessing the syntax in the early 90s adventure games. It's horrible :-)

But man does it feel good when you guess correctly. :-)
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