Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

twitter.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

431–440 of 451 posts

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#431

Post by dragonwriter »

origin_path wrote: post #380
kken wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair It's well known that this is not true. You are perpetuating russian propaganda.

The broken turbines in question were sent to western factories which repaired them. If they weren't broken it would have been noticed. And recall, the whole point of sanctions was to degrade Russia's industrial capacity by preventing them from repairing things that depended on western parts, so this is very likely a priori. Anyway it doesn't matter. NS2 is there ready and waiting to go, but Germany won't switch it on…

> NS2 is there ready and waiting to go

Nope, it just broke.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/26/nord-stream...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-swe...

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#432

Post by cinntaile »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #419
cinntaile wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm saying those claims were limited to the western world, they didn't address anything else. Where it is true that coal is on its way out.

No they weren't.

I guess it's about time you back up your claims with some sources, your memory from a decennium ago might not be as accurate as you think.

Here is the IEA World Energy Outlook from 2010. The presentation is simplified, check out page 11 in [0] for example. As you can see the OECD numbers go down, but the China, India and other developing market numbers go up. Giving us a total increase. You can check out the more in depth IEA report here [1].

[0] https://www.oecd.org/berlin/46389140.pdf [1] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1b090169-1c58-4f5d-...

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#433

Post by foverzar »

marvin wrote: post #145
foverzar wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's well known that this is not true Well known? Is it? Could you please give some reference then? No one would be surprised to see a "work-to-rule" action, but how is it "russian propaganda" that Europe had sanctioned Russian energy industry and it "somehow" had consequences?

Russian propaganda says that Nord Stream 1 is closed due to repairs. It obviously is not. It is closed because Russia wages economic warfare against Europe. You won't find a peer-reviewed double-blind study saying this, signed by foreign minister Lavrov with an interview in the appendix where he states that this is in fact Russia's deliberate policy choice, but one can use some basic reasoning. The desire for punishi…

> Russian propaganda says that Nord Stream 1 is closed due to repairs. It obviously is not. It is closed because Russia wages economic warfare against Europe. You won't find a peer-reviewed double-blind study saying this, signed by foreign minister Lavrov with an interview in the appendix where he states that this is in fact Russia's deliberate policy choice, but one can use some basic reasoning.

I don't need peer-reviewed double-blinded study. I need something that has at least a bit more substance than "well known", "obvious" or other argumentum ad populum

> The desire for punishing Europe certainly stems from Europe's similarly uncompromising economic warfare against Russia, but let's at least try to focus on the ground truths and not get caught up in a bunch of transparent lies.

The ground truth is that the US and Europe (for however justified reason) had declared an economic war against Russia (sanctions), which has no means or strength to wage a real economic war of its own. And another ground truth is that they were not properly thought through as 2/4 pipelines are sanctioned and cannot be used, financial operations are sanctioned and cannot normally be performed, technology export and maintenance is sanctioned. All this to disrupt Russia's operations, while Europe STILL depends on it.

Replace Russia with any random variable and you would still get the same effect if you don't mind where you shoot and nuke half your own energy market. It doesn't even have any real means to "punish poor Europeans with all it's economic might", otherwise there wouldn't be ANY gas flowing to Europe for months now. Instead Russia simply does absolutely nothing to mitigate Europe's own risks of continuing running operations restricted and sanctioned all around by itself, while still profiting from it.

Please stop defending incompetence and labeling every uncomfortable piece of reality as "Russian propaganda".

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#434

Post by throwawaylinux »

cinntaile wrote: post #432
throwawaylinux wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they weren't.

I guess it's about time you back up your claims with some sources, your memory from a decennium ago might not be as accurate as you think. Here is the IEA World Energy Outlook from 2010. The presentation is simplified, check out page 11 in [0] for example. As you can see the OECD numbers go down, but the China, India and other developing market numbers go up. Giving us a total increase. You can check out the more in…

Sounds like sealioning TBH. No, you can easily refresh your own memory if you've forgotten about it. Coal mines infrastructure and generation everywhere were being called stranded assets, "killed by renewables". Your claim that it was just in the west doesn't make sense because mines in western countries export to China and India etc.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#435

Post by marvin »

foverzar wrote: post #433
marvin wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russian propaganda says that Nord Stream 1 is closed due to repairs. It obviously is not. It is closed because Russia wages economic warfare against Europe. You won't find a peer-reviewed double-blind study saying this, signed by foreign minister Lavrov with an interview in the appendix where he states that this is in fact Russia's deliberate policy choice, but one can use some basic reasoning. The desire for punishi…

> Russian propaganda says that Nord Stream 1 is closed due to repairs. It obviously is not. It is closed because Russia wages economic warfare against Europe. You won't find a peer-reviewed double-blind study saying this, signed by foreign minister Lavrov with an interview in the appendix where he states that this is in fact Russia's deliberate policy choice, but one can use some basic reasoning. I don't need peer-re…

Europe has offered to fix the alleged "problems" multiple times, bringing their own spare parts and rolling out the red carpet on the off chance that missing parts & personnel due to sanctions are in fact the culprit.

But to no-one's big surprise, Russia has declined. So the conclusion is obvious.

It would of course be interesting to do a 40 page research essay in the style of WaitButWhy every time Russia makes a statement that fails to pass the smell test -- reeeeeeally document in detail why the statement is lower probability than a lie. The problem is, Russian authorities routinely lie, so often that following this strategy would lead to spending all one's time authoring (and then communicating) these explanations. Such a course of action is nothing but playing right along with the intentions of the propaganda.

If Russia one day wakes up and makes a true but surprising statement and no one believes them, they will only have themselves to thank for it.

That German energy politics since March 11 2011 has been a shitshow of incompetence is something we can both agree on, but Russia's present-day capitalization on this mistake is anything but.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#436

Post by cinntaile »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #434
cinntaile wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it's about time you back up your claims with some sources, your memory from a decennium ago might not be as accurate as you think. Here is the IEA World Energy Outlook from 2010. The presentation is simplified, check out page 11 in [0] for example. As you can see the OECD numbers go down, but the China, India and other developing market numbers go up. Giving us a total increase. You can check out the more in…

Sounds like sealioning TBH. No, you can easily refresh your own memory if you've forgotten about it. Coal mines infrastructure and generation everywhere were being called stranded assets, "killed by renewables". Your claim that it was just in the west doesn't make sense because mines in western countries export to China and India etc.

> Sounds like sealioning TBH.

Why the intellectual dishonesty? Why do you try to discredit what I say, backed by sources, when you rely on nothing but your own fallible memory to back up your claims? Just back up your claims with sources, it's really not that hard.

> Your claim that it was just in the west doesn't make sense because mines in western countries export to China and India etc.

If you check the previous links that I posted, you will see that coal production in the west has reduced as well.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#437

Post by nebalee »

koheripbal wrote: post #140
nebalee wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://taketonews.com/engie-repeats-message-after-open-lett... “The closing dates are determined by law and the licenses to operate the power plants end on those dates. That has been established for a long time and we have been preparing for that for a long time.” The government did ask Engie in July to see whether both reactors could possibly continue for a few more months to bridge the difficult winter, but accord…

Germany tried to make the exact same claim this year about their three remaining plants - but the nuclear engineers running the plants were brave enough to say the gov't was lying. ...not that it mattered because the German gov't just doubled down on closing those plants regardless. There is no technical reason they could not have extended their shutdown plans. This is just an unfortunate combination of bureaucratic…

> but the nuclear engineers running the plants were brave enough to say the gov't was lying

can you provide a link to that?

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#438

Post by throwawaylinux »

cinntaile wrote: post #436
throwawaylinux wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like sealioning TBH. No, you can easily refresh your own memory if you've forgotten about it. Coal mines infrastructure and generation everywhere were being called stranded assets, "killed by renewables". Your claim that it was just in the west doesn't make sense because mines in western countries export to China and India etc.

> Sounds like sealioning TBH. Why the intellectual dishonesty? Why do you try to discredit what I say, backed by sources, when you rely on nothing but your own fallible memory to back up your claims? Just back up your claims with sources, it's really not that hard. > Your claim that it was just in the west doesn't make sense because mines in western countries export to China and India etc. If you check the previous l…

You don't have to come up with sources to everything obvious, that's an intellectually dishonest way to argue. Obviously people were calling coal mines in western countries stranded and dead assets, if you weren't paying attention and don't think that is the case, then it's actually on you to provide evidence for this extraordinary claim.

> If you check the previous links that I posted, you will see that coal production in the west has reduced as well.

You keep blathering about things that don't address anything I wrote. Go back and actually read what I wrote and have a think about what you're actually trying to say about it before you try again.

Coal production in (at least some) western countries, e.g., USA has actually started to increase in the past year or so in response to demand.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#439

Post by cinntaile »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #438
cinntaile wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sounds like sealioning TBH. Why the intellectual dishonesty? Why do you try to discredit what I say, backed by sources, when you rely on nothing but your own fallible memory to back up your claims? Just back up your claims with sources, it's really not that hard. > Your claim that it was just in the west doesn't make sense because mines in western countries export to China and India etc. If you check the previous l…

You don't have to come up with sources to everything obvious, that's an intellectually dishonest way to argue. Obviously people were calling coal mines in western countries stranded and dead assets, if you weren't paying attention and don't think that is the case, then it's actually on you to provide evidence for this extraordinary claim. > If you check the previous links that I posted, you will see that coal product…

> Obviously people were calling coal mines in western countries stranded and dead assets, if you weren't paying attention and don't think that is the case, then it's actually on you to provide evidence for this extraordinary claim.

That's what I claimed, I'm happy you agree. This claim did not extend towards the rest of the world (so not like you claimed), the consensus among experts was that they would be increasing their coal consumption. This is also what happened.

> Coal production in (at least some) western countries, e.g., USA has actually started to increase in the past year or so in response to demand.

I don't think anyone missed the gas crisis.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#440

Post by throwawaylinux »

cinntaile wrote: post #439
throwawaylinux wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to come up with sources to everything obvious, that's an intellectually dishonest way to argue. Obviously people were calling coal mines in western countries stranded and dead assets, if you weren't paying attention and don't think that is the case, then it's actually on you to provide evidence for this extraordinary claim. > If you check the previous links that I posted, you will see that coal product…

> Obviously people were calling coal mines in western countries stranded and dead assets, if you weren't paying attention and don't think that is the case, then it's actually on you to provide evidence for this extraordinary claim. That's what I claimed, I'm happy you agree. This claim did not extend towards the rest of the world (so not like you claimed), the consensus among experts was that they would be increasing…

> That's what I claimed, I'm happy you agree. This claim did not extend towards the rest of the world (so not like you claimed),

It did ,because western countries export coal to the rest of the world.

Look if you can't admit you were parroting that coal was killed by renewables without any understanding of commodity boom/bust cycles or energy demand trajectory the world that's quite understandable it's difficult to face reality, but you don't have to keep at it.

Post reply on HN