EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted • Hacker News Board

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#431

Post by aembleton » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:06 PM UTC

gravelc wrote: post #247

I currently have a Toyota hybrid that is slowly reverting to an ICE-only after 8 years of ownership. Unless there's some mechanism in place to prolong the life of electric cars beyond the limits of their battery, I can see there'll be a lot of holdouts (young people, less well off etc.). Regulation in the big markets such as the US and Europe to enforce a cost-effective approach to battery replacement seems essential…

> I currently have a Toyota hybrid that is slowly reverting to an ICE-only after 8 years of ownership.

How do you detect when its doing that? My Prius is 14 years old and I think the hybrid still works. It does switch off the engine still at low speeds. Maybe it is isn't doing as well these days, but still seems good enough to keep for me.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#432

Post by jmartin2683 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:06 PM UTC

…because they’re way, way better in just about every way imaginable. The only upside to a gas car is that they’re slightly cheaper up front (in exchange for massively higher operating costs).

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#433

Post by sandworm101 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:07 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #386

sandworm101 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LoL. Don't worry. Global warming will deal with the low temperatures.

Toronto climate, average low, January: −6.7 °C (19.9 °F) Temperature change needed for complete loss of Greenland ice sheet: between 1 and 4 °C. (That's a change by , not a change to ). Effect of complete loss of Greenland ice sheet: 7.2 meter sea level rise.

Torono isnt really typical. It is southern canada, and a bit of a heat island. Fort Mcmurray (that had to evac a few years ago) average january low: -22.5c. Places like that have almost 90c temperature swings from low to high in a given year (-50 to +35).

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#434

Post by aembleton » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:13 PM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #23

EVs are currently more expensive to operate in europe than gasoline powered vehicles due to out of control inflation and geo political supply issues

7.5p/KWh between 00:30 and 04:30 on Octopus Go [1]. Kia Niro EV has an efficiency of 276Wh/mile [2]. That's 2.72p/mile.

Latest petrol price averages £1.6933/litre [3]. That makes an ICE car cheaper only if it can acheive 280mpg. ( (169.33/2.72) * 4.5 ). My Prius averages 55mpg. That makes my Prius 5 times as expensive to run as an EV right now.

1. https://octopus.energy/go/

2. https://ev-database.uk/car/1666/Kia-Niro-EV

3. https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/fuel-watch/

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#435

Post by kkfx » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:13 PM UTC

I ask only for a VERY SIMPLE thing: any damn car and charger equipped with a standard data bus and relevant open and public and standard API to talk. Negotiating needs and options of both sides.

That means I can plug the car in the garage and it talk to my p.v. inverter eating as much energy as it can when the Sun shine and stopping when Sun is not there with user-configurable simple and quick to set parameter: target SOC and target time. Like "I want a minimum SOC for this time". Than car and p.v. do their best to maximize self consumption high voltage DC to inverter MPPT to maximize efficiency as a bonus. Plus since there are anyway to DC wires and also two/more AC wires and the car have an inverter anyway offering energy to the home as needed, with a minimum SOC for when the home is on grid, another for when the grid fail.

Most hybrid/battery inverter already do that since years. There is no &$&%%( reason why cars with their large batteries and naturally limited service life can't do the same.

If an OEM do that, even before have a public standard, witch means needing to change/add an inverter, I'll buy the car ASAP. If not I'll wait until diesel reach 5-6€/liter or became so scarce I can't keep using it. Sorry but there is a limit of CRAPPY and alpha-alike quality crap to be imposed on people because those who design and sell the aforementioned crap do not use it on their own so do not realize what's needed and what's not.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#436

Post by abecedarius » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:23 PM UTC

toast0 wrote: post #280

krisoft wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even conscientious cyclists who call “on your left” or whatever routinely underestimate the necessary reaction time and overestimate how far their voice will carry. You are absolutely right. As a cyclist there isn’t really any good way to reliably avoid startling a pedestrian in a mixed environment. Even if you do the even more conscientious thing and you slow all the way down to match speed with them, and then “wa…

> As a cyclist there isn’t really any good way to reliably avoid startling a pedestrian in a mixed environment. A loud freewheel is probably as close as it gets. I'd guess a loud freehub could work too, but I like my bikes old, so no freehubs. Maybe some sort of jetsons noise generator.

Some people are deaf or hard of hearing.

In my experience, though, the worst sidewalk speeders are on skateboards or scooters. (I'm not saying you shouldn't skate; rather, when there was a close call or a collision, that's what they were barreling by on.)

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#437

Post by korlja » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:24 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #322

Gud wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you guys live? Here in Sweden we have a small bell on the steering you ring when you want to pass. https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=iphone_b...

This sadly has become less useful with the increase in headphone usage by pedestrians.

A pedestrian with headphones needs to ensure that he can hear any relevant traffic noise, e.g. my bell or an approaching car. Noise-blocking headphones or loud music impeding the hearing of a pedestrian are a traffic offense.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#438

Post by jimkleiber » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:28 PM UTC

endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

I'm surprised more people didn't reply to the enclosed part of your suggestion. One of the biggest advantages of a car for me is climate control: from wind, heat, cold, rain, snow, etc. Not just for me but also the items I'm carrying with me.

I really just want an enclosed electric bike/motorcycle with climate control. I liked Arcimoto for a while until they stopped focusing on the full climate control and decided to charge $18k and above.

So yes, please, an electric bicycle with climate control.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#439

Post by reaperducer » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:29 PM UTC

fullstop wrote: post #430

reaperducer wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. That's an interesting point. We see this a couple of times a year in the United States — tens, or even hundreds of thousands of people evacuating because of an approaching hurricane. It takes hours and hours and hours to go not very far. And when you finally get someplace with an open hotel room, it's hundreds of miles away. Although I beli…

Something else to consider is that EVs can remain idle in traffic without consuming much battery. They're not constantly consuming fuel like most ICE vehicles.

But if you're fleeing a hurricane, chances are you have the air conditioner on. It's generally hot and humid. You. Any have the windows open because of the rain, but you need the AC to keep the windshield clear. How does that affect battery use in an EV?

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#440

Post by sam345 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:31 PM UTC

I didn't get into the data just scanned the article but her main point is it looks good because their own projections for 2030 have increased over the years since their original projection in 2008? And we still have 8 years to go? Little or no discussion of actual data? Weird.