Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

medium.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

431–440 of 817 posts

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#431

Post by tmnvix »

jonathanstrange wrote: post #97

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

I would really, really like to see governments taking this issue seriously, starting with a proper effort to determine how many of the residences in their jurisdictions are not used as a primary residence. I suspect the results would be enlightening and point the way to effective regulation.

I firmly believe that most investors are chasing capital gains as yields at current prices (even with extortionate rents) are mostly a joke. It's bad enough that some speculators don't even bother renting out their property.

A widespread residential property market crash would be painful but looks like the most likely outcome and solution. I'm hopeful that as interest rates rise capital gains will diminish, disappear, or even go backwards. Indications are that this is already underway in many places.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#432

Post by [deleted] »

petre wrote: post #137
mariojv wrote: post #113

Related article in the WSJ today about Americans buying European homes due to the favorable exchange rate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-the-u-s-dollar-surges-americ... I wonder how this will impact "golden visas." Personally, if moving to Europe, I would be a little concerned about short-term energy insecurity pretty much anywhere except perhaps the Iberian peninsula. I think they'll find a solution, but it'd be h…

The Iberian peninsula imports gas from Algeria. The instant they accept Moroccan control over Western Sahara is the instant the gas stops flowing from Algeria to Spain and Portugal.

[deleted]

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#433

Post by aperson_hello »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #359
stavros wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greece has the exact same problem. Rents are skyrocketing and people can't afford to live in their own cities. We're building more housing, but it doesn't seem to be helping. Maybe SF doesn't want to build more housing, but this isn't universal.

My experience with most people saying "we are building more housing" is that they drastically overestimate how much housing is getting built, especially relative to yesteryear. If you look at net increase in units YoY, it's usually quite modest even for booming, "in-demand" areas. The other part is that the same things that make it slower to build more housing also make it more expensive, all the various bureaucratic…

If housing units are increasing in double digit percentages per year, then we're talking! Otherwise, it's at best keeping up with population growth.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#435

Post by aperson_hello »

epolanski wrote: post #364
lthornberry wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For many decades, California has had extremely restrictive building regulations, especially in the most desirable areas. That is slowly changing, but the actual building has always been straightforward. It is getting the permission to do so that is complicated, expensive, and often just impossible.

The most desirable areas aren't filled with buildings at every corner.

That's a permissions problem, not a demand problem. If the free market would be let loose there, we'd have skyscrapers on every block. The issue is nibmy-oriented citizens who are actively resisting that.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#436

Post by pessimizer »

rr888 wrote: post #132
hnuser847 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for mentioning interest rates. Any time housing comes up on HN, the main factors people bring up are short-term rentals, NIMBYism, and lack of new development. However, if these explanations had any merit, why have home values in Flint, MI increased by 67% since March of 2020? Flint's population has rapidly declined over the past 40 years and continues to decline (its population is less than half of what it…

And the biggest reason people buy housing is that its been the best investment. The wealthiest people I know are the people that bought houses a long time back and kept leveraging up into buying more.

Housing only started beating inflation sometime in the late 90s.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#437

Post by mberger »

jahnu wrote: post #384
asah wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol Lisbon is crowded. Lisbon: 6,452/km2 Barcelona: 16,000/km2 NYC: 25,000+/km2 (depends on the source) Lower East Side NYC: 33,600/km2 - due to zoning regs, there are very few buildings over 9 stories... but every building is 9 stories! Lower East Side NYC 1910: 144,000+/km2 - visit https://www.tenement.org/ to learn more. Kowloon Walled City, 1970s: ~2M/km2 !!! - inspiring 1000s of dystopian Sci Fi stories from Aki…

District I live in Vienna, Austria 25,000/km2 It’s pretty quiet too! :)

I live in an area with 25/km^2 and my fiance complains that there are too many

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#438

Post by fezfight »

dionidium wrote: post #421
armchairhacker wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve literally seen this same exact comment many, many times except with different locations. Eastern Mass, New York, Ontario, Britain, and even starting to hear it from suburban areas. The exact same concepts: cheap grandfathered lease, hoping the landlord doesn’t cancel, can’t afford rent despite making >100k, “luxury apartments”, empty apartments, illegal renting (e.g. AirBnB) and shadiness.

The underlying issue is that demand for these places has increased in our new globally-connected world. That's not going away. Cute little lake houses aren't going to be a local secret anywhere in the world, anymore, and the sooner people realize that, the sooner they can think about how to adjust to it. We are currently in the "denial" phase. We can't get to "acceptance" fast enough.

I think the wealthy are already well beyond the denial phase and that is part of the problem. There might be a global panicked landgrab being undertaken by those who control large amounts of capital. Because if they dont, someone else will.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#439

Post by ux-app »

NoLinkToMe wrote: post #381
jonathanstrange wrote: post #97

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

> or example, if you own three ordinary apartments in Lisbon, you can live in one of them and easily make a good living by renting out the other two as holiday apartments. Because cleaning services, guys who do repairs, etc., are cheap in Portugal, this involves almost no work. Moreover, the net worth of your property will continually increase while you do (almost) nothing. I'm a bit conflicted on this. I definitely…

Not all assets are equal. Shelter is a basic human need. Creating an environment that allows speculation in this asset is bad.

Progressively tax the shit out of each subsequent property owned. Prevent foreign/corporate ownership of property outside of short stay, hotel/motel type accommodation.

Make shelter an extremely unattractive asset to own.

Unfortunately, many politicians across the world are also landlords.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#440

Post by AYBABTME »

FerociousTimes wrote: post #408
samatman wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to see so much as a tiny shred of evidence of this, it doesn't pass the smell test. Austin? Ok, sure. How many Californians are expatriating to Lisbon? Is it that many? Ok, let's do Londoners next. A lot more right? Principal factors, you say. Let's see it.

By searching "Californians in Portugal", just one of many on the top search results page: Welcome to Portugal, the new expat haven. Californians, please go home https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-12/califo...

If you go fishing for what you believe, you'll surely find it. A quick google search returning some stuff doesn't quantify this as being an actual, significant phenomenon.
Post reply on HN