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Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

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Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think people fail to notice how similar a (non-fraud) tether model is to a traditional bank That’s exactly what’s unethical about it. They’re operating a bank, but have skipped all the regulations and oversight that banks operate with. I have no issue with Tether operating a fractional reserve deposit system, if they are subject to the same oversight (and insurance) that banks are subject to.

I think there is just no way you could have a traditional bank provide the capabilities that tether provides. It acts like a bank, but it certainly does things that banking regulations to not actually regulate, and there is no way tether would have been granted a bank charter. Like it or not, waiting for regulation is not a way to build something that is new. As for forgiveness, not for permission.

I think that that idiom is perhaps overstated, it can be good, but it can also be an excuse to be morally corrupt.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#432
post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Regular savings account banks do typically do this, for example the bank has the right to ask for 7 days to honor a withdrawal Source? I'm familiar with savings accounts described as "instant access" or "easy access" where you can get your money out whenever you feel like it. Unless the bank actually markets an account as a "notice account", can they really ask for 7 days notice?

Of course. A depositor might walk in and ask to withdraw more money than the bank has cash on hand. The seven days gives the bank time to get the requisite notes (or call the appropriate law enforcement agency).

> A depositor might walk in and ask to withdraw more money than the bank has cash on hand.

I'm sure you didn't mean it that way, but that sounds rather like an excuse for a bank to hold on to someone's money. Withdrawals don't have to be in cash, banks can issue cheques or money orders (always assuming they still exist in your jurisdiction!) If not the bank can simply pay out your balance by electronic transfer to an account you specify.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#433
post #368
post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If USDT dies then BTC goes to like $500 on Binance. Do you just mean that confidence will be so low that people will try to shun cryptocurrencies and dump their positions, or are you talking about another mechanism?

When people say that BTC is worth $30,000 on Binance right now, what they are really saying is that BTC is worth 30,000 Tether dollars (USDT) on Binance, because there's no mechanism on Binance to exchange BTC for US Dollars in a direct swap. You have to buy USDT and then use that USDT to buy BTC.* Basically USD -> USDT -> BTC. Today the ratio is 1 -> 0.998 -> 30,000, so in theory BTC priced at 30,000 USDT is current…

But to your original comment, shouldn't BTC go to 500 USDT but stay at a constant USD price (assuming no contagion to the rest of the crypto market which I mentioned above)?

Basically if you buy BTC using USD going through a random currency RC (USD -> RC -> BTC), the exchange rates BTC:RC and USD:RC shouldn't matter as long as they're constant. If they become volatile, I'd expect exchanges to stop trading these pairs, making these rates undefined. But if Tether ends up being stable at say $0.1, I don't see why the BTC:USD rate (going through Tether) would change.

There are also other stablecoins, I'm assuming that USDT is not the only one in use, so why would it impact the BTC:USD rate (again, forgetting about the contagion)? E.g. on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/markets/ there are several pairs defined, some directly with USD, some with DAI.

Edit: maybe you mean that as long as they pretend the peg still holds, people would just buy BTC with USDT, making the run worse?

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#434

Someone help me understand this. All you need for a stable stablecoin is to save every dollar put in to it. The people behind Tether sell tethers for $1, they save all of those dollars, and whenever the price of Tethers drops to $0.99, they buy tethers until the price is back up to $1. As long as they never spend anything from the reserve, this can't fail no matter how unpopular the currency is - they can back the cu…

Yeah, "Fake it till you make it", and they made it.

They are the only stablecoin I would ever consider buying, because they by now have enough resources to fake it long term.

I've read that the main reasons that people invest in a stablecoin (from least to most) is to: a) buy/sell other crypto easily, b) store illegal gains without drawing attention to yourself c) move your money out of the country.

Reason C is especially pertinent to China, and the environment there (from what I read on U.S. media, which is HIGHLY unreliable) is not pushing them to run the bank.

IMO, the biggest risk for Tether is that the AG suddenly announces that they won't be able to trade in the States, as that will cause a run, and that is definitely possible.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#435
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USDT is the fuel that powers a lot the crypto ecosystem. Good luck trying to move USD around between different places in the crypto ecosystem (especially outside office hours). While possible it's complicated, slow and has terrible uptime. The biggest crypto markets in the world are quoted in tether.

Fiat-backed, collaterized stable coins that are better than USDT - USDC (Circle USD) - GUSD (Gemini USD) - BUSD (Binance USD) - EURS (Stasis EUR) Crypto backed (overcollaterized) stable coins that are soft-pegged and better than USDT - DAI (MakerDAO) - sUSD (Synthetix USD) - sEUR (Synthetix EUR) No one needs USDT anymore. The fact that even Binance gets more credibility than Tether should tell you how scammy the peop…

100% agree to that list. I moved from USDT to USDC months ago. And now, that the exchange rate is very good i relocated around 80% on my stablecoins in EURS. My opinion with EURS and the company stasis that issue this stablecoin is very positive, simply no problems. I feel safe holding eurs cause it is backed with fiat money. Never liked the synthetic assets, so for the moment i am good with Eurs and Usdc for the euro and dollar part of my portfolio..

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to have made 2% on those other investments and the 2% lost on crypto is irrelevant. Also, if 2% of outstanding tether has been lost (forgotten wallet keys etc) then those can never be redeemed and again, tether wins. Inflation is another factor worth considering here: tethers deposits are deminishing but it's investments are (or should be) shielded. I think people fail to notice how similar a (non-frau…

> They only need to have made 2% on those other investments and the 2% lost on crypto is irrelevant. A quarter of their investments are commercial paper, which hasn't averaged as high as 2% yield since a brief period in March 2020. Actual cash of course has 0% yield. US Treasuries (sub 1-year), which make up nearly half their assets, also hasn't hit 2% yield any time recently. So no, they aren't recouping their loss…

Slightly lower actually according to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_requirement, though the exact figure doesn’t matter that much. The 10% figure in your mind was probably the old reserve requirement, which was recently eliminated in the US.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wisdom of holding is always relative to the rest of the market and what else you could be holding. Imagine a metals exchange. If copper were going up in value compared to the other metals, you’d want to hold copper. But you can also sell all your metals for cash. You would do this when all the metals are going down in value, which means USD is the “best-performing metal” and you want to be holding it. You always…

This all is a good explanation for why you might hold USD instead of other assets. It’s a less compelling explanation for why you might hold USDT, which would be the same as holding USD except it also might crash and leave you with nothing.

I'm not going to do the job of Tether's accountants. There is no compelling reason to hold it given this risk. Nevertheless people do, and the reason is what I said + they additionally believe the claims about it being redeemable 1:1 for USD + it's easier to buy and sell crypto with it than actual USD.

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#438
post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NY Attorney General successfully prosecuted the parent company of Tether and Bitfinex. They found that the two were sharing funds, transferring them back and forth to make it appear that Tether was fully backed while using the same funds to prop up Bitfinex (after they lost coins, maybe in a hack?) https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2021/attorney-general-james-... That doesn't necessarily mean that Tether's assets a…

The outcome was a $18.5 settlement with no admission of wrong doing. If there was really shady activity, would NYAG disclose it?

If there was no shady activity, would tether pay a $18.5 million settlement for no reason?

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#439
post #74

We're in the get out while you still can phase. At some point they'll suspend conversion and holders will be stuck with something virtually worthless. It's like watching a landslide in its early stages, as soon as enough people realise what's going on it's going to be too late.

It is specially relevant to get out as there is no upside or very minimal upside... Why ever hold tether... If real money is an option.

Avoid cgt, not the meta in this crash

Re: Tether Withdrawals Top $10B

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wisdom of holding is always relative to the rest of the market and what else you could be holding. Imagine a metals exchange. If copper were going up in value compared to the other metals, you’d want to hold copper. But you can also sell all your metals for cash. You would do this when all the metals are going down in value, which means USD is the “best-performing metal” and you want to be holding it. You always…

> If copper were going up in value compared to the other metals, you’d want to hold copper. But you can also sell all your metals for cash. You would do this when all the metals are going down in value, which means USD is the “best-performing metal” and you want to be holding it. I'm not sure I follow that description, are you really saying one buys commodities when they're rising in price and sells when they're fall…

Uh yeah, predicting the future is the entire idea. People are always guessing what the price is going to be in the future. If you guess correctly you make money when you sell later. If you don't, you lose money. Lots of people are highly incentivised & therefore trying really hard to predict the future, and this is what makes capitalism an efficient resource allocator. That's not only true of metals exchanges. If you think the price of copper is going up, you could also survey for and build a copper mine. That knocks on to labour markets, as you're now hiring miners. So the market's predictions can move the price of everything, and everything readjusts itself to match, all on its own, and finds itself ready (i.e. a whole mine built & ready to go) for when the prediction comes true, or adjusts itself back when it doesn't. The effect of efficient resource allocation + predictive power is that when e.g. supply goes down but demand is up, people have tried to predict this and have already built capacity for more supply. This is pretty fundamental to how most of the world works.

Markets function in general terms as information -> price machines, where people are rewarded for seeking out information and converting it into prices by moving money. If you HAVE INFORMATION that suggests copper's going to go up in value, you buy copper, and because you did that, it DOES GO UP A BIT. So the information becomes a price signal, in advance of the event that actually affects copper supply/demand. If you predict a supply/demand change, and then your prediction "comes true", the price moves, and you can sell at a profit. Magic. You are rewarded for predicting, and in exchange the market learns the correct price a little bit earlier by incorporating your "bets" in the market price. This is known as news being "priced in". Every single day watching financial markets involves big news that some analyst at a bank mispredicted, and then the price has to move a little further or a little back to correct the value it had "priced in". Sometimes announcements come in as predicted, and the markets barely react at all, even to a huge profit announcement. It's because they already knew. They predicted it.

As people "share" the information they have about the assets in the market by buying and selling, the price walks about as it discovers its value. On short timescales, this fluctuation is largely made up of people fretting about really tiny predictions in a capricious and flighty way. The most valuable information, i.e. the stuff that will let you buy in lowest and sell highest, is information the market doesn't know yet. Only some of the information is revealed by buying/selling, as it's a weaker signal than the prediction actually coming true & being reported as news. The creation of newsworthy events happens slowly, much slower than people can trade. People can make a lot of money doing insider trading, because they can predict the future value very accurately & without trades sending a huge signal as they're anonymous! But everyone agrees it's unfair to everyone else, so it's not allowed.

All the people playing this game are trying to predict, because predictions are more lucrative than current information that the market already knows. But they can also be wrong. Fortunately the price of an asset is the aggregate of everyone making predictions, and this averages out to a more useful summary of "what do these 300,000 people think" rather than "one dude at one trading desk". The "invisible hand of the free market" is the emergent wisdom of a whole lot of people trying to guess what's going to happen in the future. And it is pretty wise -- capitalism is actually pretty good at resource allocation to projects that are going to be most useful in the future. It performs better than a Politburo at this task. The main criticism of it is not that it's bad at this job, but that it is too good at it -- and too ruthless at exploiting the information it has to the detriment of the poor humans without much capital at the bottom.

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