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Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

bloombergquint.com

431–440 of 575 posts

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

agreed nature gets along just fine on its own, but if we're talking about human prosperity I don't think we can sustain ourselves on the bounty of the forest.

Foraging from the forest isn't what I meant at all. The way we farm the majority of the crop land kills every last spec of fungi and bacteria in the soil that would help improve the soil and reduce the need for inputs. The minerals are there already. We need to allow the biology to do its thing and make them available to plants.

sorry i didnt mean to misrepresent your point. i wanted to emphasize (and i think we agree here) that the land is single use.

allowing biology to "do its thing" usually means we can't also use it to grow crops.

maybe some sustainable hybrid strategies exist, but i doubt the yields are anywhere near the mass food production we have today.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't need meat. And there are many price and institutional barriers to completely grass fed cattle. The primary being that slaughter is centralized to FSIS inspected facilities where most non-poultry spend their final weeks packed in eating soy and corn.

You don't get to make decisions for me on the basis of what is necessary from your perspective.

What is meat necessary for, other than proteins and iron? Taste? Tradition?

Also, what decisions are you talking about? OP said one does not need meat. Isn't that a provable fact?

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#433
post #107

Food security always makes me think about food waste. When I was 17 years old I went to Sweden as part of a cultural exchange program (I'm from South America). One of the first things that shocked me was the sheer amount of food being wasted for no reason whatsoever. In my country, even though I come from a privileged family, you can't shield yourself away from poverty. Throughout my entire life living with my parent…

How would less wastage help at all? It would just translate to less production and everything would continue with the same risks as always, wouldn't it?

I don't have any food growing in my garden even though I could. Is that food waste? What if I plant some vegies and forget to eat them and they die and rot. Is that food waste? I don't see that food waste itself is a real problem, just an illusion because it's so visible.

Surely we all waste electricity by having hot showers instead of cold, or leaving our computers on when we're not using them. We can afford it, so why not? Even those poor people are wasting oxygen in the air! Imagine how scarce that is in space or a submarine.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#434
post #181
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think food waste can be eliminated. I would even argue that there is threshold after which a decrease in food waste comes at the expense of quality of nutrition. Even in my university's restaurant, which feeds students on a massive industrial scale, I see food waste. But even in a much bigger scale, the amount was significantly less. Elimination of food waste is not practical and should not be a goal, you'll…

As with any engineering problem, the harder you push some constraints the more you'll have to pay with others. A university-scale cafeteria could greatly reduce food waste by fetching the food off of the plates the customers are done with and putting that food back into the cafeteria for the next customers. But there's reasons that's several violations of the health code. Something has to give at some point.

There is an all you can eat chain in my area. Its cheap, but they do charge extra for any leftovers - that approach would likely significantly reduce the waste in places such as uni-scale cafeterias.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#435

The Green Revolution of the 1960s proved that we could - that Malthusian claims were BS. What we have now is those same Malthusians actively sabotaging the roots of the Green Revolution by shutting down energy and means of production. Technically mass murder.

> those same Malthusians actively sabotaging the roots of the Green Revolution by shutting down energy and means of production. Technically mass murder

I don't suppose you'd like to expand on this argument or back it with any sort of substance?

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that the urban planning that enables the use of cars actually restricts your freedom; you can't go anywhere without your car, and god forbid if you want to go to the store across the stroad, you have to cross 5 lanes of traffic. You can't walk that--or if you do, you have to cross that, and another square mile of parking lot. Cars are only synonymous with "independence" in the US because we've made it i…

> I would argue that the urban planning that enables the use of cars actually restricts your freedom; you can't go anywhere without your car, and god forbid if you want to go to the store across the stroad, you have to cross 5 lanes of traffic. You can't walk that--or if you do, you have to cross that, and another square mile of parking lot. On the other hand, even in my urban environment, I can get to another neighb…

> [Cars] are a feature of the new world, just not the US. If Europe had the bulk of it's development in the post-car era, it would've turned out the same way.

A huge portion of Europe was destroyed.(and consequently rebuilt) in WWI and WWII, which are both firmly in the post-car era. They rebuilt with an emphasis on trains. Where they didn't, or in later years when they chose instead to invest in car development, some of them are now turning back to human-centric development [1].

> ... Need even bigger metal boxes and you need more of them and you have to wait for them and they are often late...

In terms of space-occupation in cars vs buses (or trains), mass transit absolutely wins. This is a trivial argument. There's a dozen versions of this picture [2] that shows the difference between like 80 people commuting via bike, bus, or car. The amount of redundant space taken up by cars is bonkers to me.

"Packed into them like cattle", I'll grant you rush hour gets crowded, but you'll spend less time on the trains than you would trying to cram that many people through the highway. See also the "induced demand" problem of highways.

Moreover, while you're not using your car, it's taking up space doing nothing. While I'm not using the subway, it's working to shuttle the other 1.6 million people who use it (that number varies wildly depending on your city, notably).

To the point of transit times and the, ah, atmosphere of transit: Of course travel time will vary according to how big the transit network is. You see this a lot in sub-urban downtowns. A bus system will exist, but it'll be painfully slow to get from one point to another when compared to a car. I argue this is because the externalities of the disproportionately wealthy-benefiting poor-subsidized road system. Similarly, why is it when we have traffic issues the argument is always "build more lanes! Improve the roads!" But when transit has throughout problems we say "Look, this is why transit never works, and we should invest in roads instead!" You haven't done this overtly, but that idea underlies your argument: cars are better, we shouldn't waste our money on transit.

As for being uncomfortable or dealing with less-than-savory people on mass transi, you're absolutely right that those are unpleasant experiences, and being able to use a car does help avoid them... Just like moving to a wealthier part of town or building a highway to keep the riffraff out would help avoid them, but none of those solve the underlying problem. It is not a fault of the underlying public system that it is so used by people of poorer means or those with mental disorders or simialrt, it is a flaw of the private wealthy systems that it allows people to avoid examples of their fellow citizens whose society has failed them. We shouldn't avoid using transit, or not have transit, because it accidentally functions as a haven for the homeless or mentally unwell or destitute. We should address those failings of our society by providing for those people, the better to enable our public systems to fulfill their original designed function. Importantly though, the public resource is still serving the public. You being able to escape the flawed public systems and escape to your private spaces (car, house, etc) because you have the money to do so is not an indictment of that systems failings, but of your empathy for your fellow citizens.

Put another way, it sounds almost like you're saying "I don't like going to the community doctor, and don't believe we should invest in it more, because it's always full of sick people."

[1]: https://youtu.be/sI-1YNAmWlk [2]: https://humantransit.org/2012/09/the-photo-that-explains-alm...

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#437

I don't get this whole fertilizer crunch thing. If you look at the price of Osmocote on Amazon, it's basically not much different than it's always been: https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B00GTDGMHC So basically the cost of enough fertilizer to feed an entire family for a year has gone up by, what, $20? $100? And that's at retail prices; the cost (and cost increase) would obviously be much smaller when purchased in…

That looks like a 50% increase over the average price according to the link you sent.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#438

The fungi guys will tell you that running out of mineral fertilizer is bullshit on roughly 95% of the arable land because all of the minerals your food needs are right there in the sand and clay. I once heard it described that conventional agriculture is essentially a hydroponics system using partially sterilized soil as the substrate. Nearly every symbiotic relationship fungi make is based on buying sugars from plan…

Yea the way we do mass farming now is MASSively flawed. It produces huge yields but has tons of fragility - monoculture crops being a huge flaw as well. The one that fascinates me the most is the way the Mayans did it - Chinampas. That and aquaculture growing lots of smaller fish seems like a create combo if we could get small backyard pond/farms going

I dream of having land with a pond. Properly managed, it could produce about 50 pounds of bluegills, etc from a 1/2 pond every year, with little input and infrequent work.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same of course goes the other way, Big Ag definitely is able to put its hand on the Department of Ag. The report I referred to is from GAO, which is much more independent than USDA. I couldn't find the GAO report I mentioned but I found a more recent one published this year by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, one of the more prestigious journals in the world. In their abstract in addition to m…

That was a good link, it seems like replacing corn with an alternative crop really is the sensible direction. There is something of note in the methodology behind the figures though: “We apply our models only domestically” Throughout the years of this study, the US imported most of its gasoline. The production emissions are excluded. It’s not comparing like with like.

> Throughout the years of this study, the US imported most of its gasoline.

Uhh what? We export more gasoline than we import.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_a_epm0f_mbblpd_a_cu...

Even if you meant crude oil and not gasoline you are still wrong, we recently became a net oil exporter.

Re: Historic fertilizer crunch threatens food security

#440
post #118
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's ok though. I like these threads on HN. Hopefully helps educate people. People on HN have a lot of skills to offer agriculture they likely aren't even aware of. Every article/discussion helps spread the message, hopefully. ETA: Most people don't understand agriculture or where their food comes from--HN no different. Only small % of people involved in agriculture _directly_

So far at posting time I don't see a whole lot of signal to gain from the noise here if I were legitimately someone who had zero agriculture experience and was trying to gain understanding. This is the blind leading the blind, and if you gleaned much from the top comments you'd be worse informed than not reading this entire thread. Half of the posts are just political using couched language to pretend they aren't. Ag…

for the hardware/software interest, the signal is precision agriculture. Using sensors and data to optimize yields.
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