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South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

washingtonpost.com

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Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#431

Post by oneoff786 »

onecommentman wrote: post #394
throwntoday wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And all of the young "healthy" people who died had comorbidities like obesity and diabetws or some congenital issues unknown to them.

The most vulnerable “comorbidity” subpopulation rarely mentioned in popular social media are the immunocompromised https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/blog/immunocompromised-... The title itself suggests the immunocompromised are acknowledged as an overlooked group. The CDC has some discussion at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola... From the link above, the immunocompromised are a reservoi…

Immunocompromised is not a binary term. Allergies to gluten are an autoimmune disorder. Arthritis can be an autoimmune disorder. A lot of these are minor.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#432

Post by afrodc_ »

sjg007 wrote: post #430
Jansen312 wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In real world I got critized badly even for pointing out media only showing "numbers of infected" and walk into any hospitals now one will see significant less patients than during the peak. We all will get sick from flu. Do we keep harping the potential of Spanish flu return? If we treat everything with utmost cdc-lab4 kind of safety, a lot of things we can't do and even earn a living. Up to a point, people need to…

Hospitals are packed... idk what you are talking about.

Where are they packed? Genuinely curious to see some data about this.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#433

Post by sudosysgen »

zuminator wrote: post #397
oneoff786 wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t tell what your point is but nothing here seems to contradict anything I said. It’s just some facts about diseases. I didn’t say every one was going to survive omicron. I said the spread was unlikely to be materially higher than its predecessor and likely have a lower negative impact. A disease that spreads twice as fast is unlikely to infect twice as many people (over the long term). A disease that causes few…

Is anyone even seriously claiming that a disease that spreads twice as fast is going to infect twice as many people? As long as the effective R0 of a disease remains greater than 1, it's eventually going to infect the same amount of people — everyone (over the long term). Greater R0 rate just means it spreads faster. The real concerns about omicron are that: 1) A rapid initial spread will overwhelm the healthcare sys…

That's not how it works. Diseases dont infect everyone. Assuming no reinfection, at R0 of 1.3 a disease will only infect around 30% of the population.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#434

Post by dnautics »

oneoff786 wrote: post #431
onecommentman wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most vulnerable “comorbidity” subpopulation rarely mentioned in popular social media are the immunocompromised https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/blog/immunocompromised-... The title itself suggests the immunocompromised are acknowledged as an overlooked group. The CDC has some discussion at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola... From the link above, the immunocompromised are a reservoi…

Immunocompromised is not a binary term. Allergies to gluten are an autoimmune disorder. Arthritis can be an autoimmune disorder. A lot of these are minor.

Autoimmune is not immunocompromised unless you're taking immunosuppressants to mitigate the disease.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#435

Post by aantix »

cwkoss wrote: post #273
aantix wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I have to choose a time to stop masking, between now and my death, I'm not going to choose my death. I will stop wearing one much sooner. I hate the muffled voices. I can't see anyone smile. It's dehumanizing.

> I hate the muffled voices. I can't see anyone smile. Grocery stores are not for socializing. I don't want randos to try to start a conversation with me beyond asking quick questions.

>Grocery stores are not for socializing.

For you.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#436

Post by kshacker »

Jansen312 wrote: post #426
oneoff786 wrote: post #54

I’ve been tanking some downvotes for the past few days for saying this. Disease spread is only exponential for a brief initial period. It is not a good mental or even general model for how disease spreads. We have two years of observational covid data that shows this to be true. Spread slows down rapidly long before reaching 100%. People hear “5x as infectious” and reason that due to the nature of exponential models,…

In real world I got critized badly even for pointing out media only showing "numbers of infected" and walk into any hospitals now one will see significant less patients than during the peak. We all will get sick from flu. Do we keep harping the potential of Spanish flu return? If we treat everything with utmost cdc-lab4 kind of safety, a lot of things we can't do and even earn a living. Up to a point, people need to…

I remember Trump saying 50K people die from flu each year. Maybe slightly lower maybe slightly higher but let's use that number. We may be losing that many or maybe at least half that much every month despite 70% vaccination, despite masks, despite many companies still being remote. Basically the vulnerable population is smaller but the death rate is very likely an order of magnitude higher even if you consider the flu season is not a full year.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#437

Post by oneoff786 »

zuminator wrote: post #397
oneoff786 wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t tell what your point is but nothing here seems to contradict anything I said. It’s just some facts about diseases. I didn’t say every one was going to survive omicron. I said the spread was unlikely to be materially higher than its predecessor and likely have a lower negative impact. A disease that spreads twice as fast is unlikely to infect twice as many people (over the long term). A disease that causes few…

Is anyone even seriously claiming that a disease that spreads twice as fast is going to infect twice as many people? As long as the effective R0 of a disease remains greater than 1, it's eventually going to infect the same amount of people — everyone (over the long term). Greater R0 rate just means it spreads faster. The real concerns about omicron are that: 1) A rapid initial spread will overwhelm the healthcare sys…

Nope. You’re still making the same mistake. That is not how R0 works. You are falsely assuming that the exponential growth period of the virus stays the same forever. The virus does not reach 100%. R0 as a general trait of a disease assumes everyone is susceptible. That is not how diseases work. There are many diseases with R0 > 1 and guess what? Not everyone got them.

I know you’re caveating “effective R0” but frankly that’s stupid. Saying as long it keeps growing it will keep growing purposefully ignores the point I am making which is that it won’t keep growing.

The effective R0 falls on its own. That is the point being made. It will absolutely not reach 100% of the population. Not even close.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#438

Post by clairity »

tunesmith wrote: post #425
clairity wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lots of people following that advice would create a bullwhip effect actually. instead, the better factors to consider are age, weight[0], comorbidities, household size, job duties (e.g., public-facing or not), and sociability. these also tend to be more stable and consistent, meaning you don't need to reconsider your personal mitigations very often. that'd indicate who generally needs personal mitigations and who doe…

My own personal health is such that I wouldn't have to be so conservative if I were thinking only of myself. But Covid isn't just symptomatic, it's also contagious, as in, I can pass it to others who may not be able to handle it as well as I can, including those that aren't merely antivax. So the idea is more that if Covid is doubling at some rate, I limit my social activity so as not to contribute to the spread.

that's factored in as 'sociability'. rather than limiting social activity, the exceptional mitigation could be to distance or wear a mask in indoor social situations (but no need to do so otherwise in most public spaces). you could also test beforehand if that was warranted (like visiting with elderly relatives).

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#439

Post by oneoff786 »

trhway wrote: post #378
moksly wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it would be surprising to me if hospitalization or deaths aren’t noticeably lower Here on vaccinated Denmark this is the truth. But we’re actually approaching last years levels regardless because of just how many people are getting covid this year. It’s more manageable thanks to the very high vaccination status, but we seem to have been too slow with the 3rd hit for a major part of the population. I have two shots…

what is the point of those lockdowns when 1. practically everybody is vaccinated and thus gets no symptoms or only light disease (and according to the latest science - superimmunity after that) and 2. the delta's and now omicron's transmissibility is so high among both - vaccinated as well as unvaccinated - that everybody susceptible to it (i.e. 30-70% of population, and anecdotally it seems to me that for covid it i…

Both if your premises are not accurate

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#440

Post by oneoff786 »

checkyoursudo wrote: post #400
oneoff786 wrote: post #54

I’ve been tanking some downvotes for the past few days for saying this. Disease spread is only exponential for a brief initial period. It is not a good mental or even general model for how disease spreads. We have two years of observational covid data that shows this to be true. Spread slows down rapidly long before reaching 100%. People hear “5x as infectious” and reason that due to the nature of exponential models,…

> it’s entirely believable to say that omicron could go on to infect fewer people than delta due to the past two years of vaccination and immunity and die off While this does appear plausible, doesn't this depend to some degree on what exactly is the immunity conferred by vaccination or past infection? If vaccines and past infections are effective against severity of case/symptoms but ineffective against new/re-infec…

Yes that’s correct
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