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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

cbc.ca

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#431

Post by RyJones »

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

A friend is a commercial HVAC contractor. They can't get parts for service work, let alone units for new construction. There's no amount of money to jump to the front of the list - the components aren't there.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#432

Post by rootusrootus »

10GBps wrote: post #6

I don't think prices are "cratering" so much as just returning to normal rather than price gouging. Now if I could just buy a GPU for a normal price...

> Now if I could just buy a GPU for a normal price...

The best recommendation I've gotten so far is to get a gaming laptop instead, because the entire laptop costs about the same as the desktop version of the same GPU.

Maybe that's shitty advice, I'm not a PC gamer, just looking for something my kids can use. But a coworker did exactly that and he raves about the decision.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#433

Post by mrcode007 »

renewiltord wrote: post #186
mrcode007 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipati…

Oh, very interesting. Honestly, I have no problem receiving the information after all its trade value is exhausted. Not looking to trade in this area. Is expired info available for free somewhere?

Unfortunately a lot of the information never gets released after it’s usefulness has expired.

On the bright side, a lot of reports are available for free from the government sources.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#434

Post by nlh »

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

Absolutely fantastic. Congrats and enjoy in good health. Are you writing about the adventure (or posting photos) anywhere?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#435

Post by bandyaboot »

ghshephard wrote: post #22
bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

100% of the analysts that I read, and, if I'm not mistaken, close to 100% of the mill owners recognized that this was a temporary blip, and that lumber would fall back into the $500sh range (There is a natural floor - that's the price at which BC mills no longer make money and start shutting down/curtailing capacity.) None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the…

That's interesting. The things I was reading before the prices started coming down in earnest were all noting what you're saying here--that mills weren't expanding capacity. But they were using that fact as justification for their belief that prices would remain high since there was no reason to expect supply pressure to ease.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#436

Post by nradov »

edrxty wrote: post #57
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

My father mostly built the house I grew up in. He was mechanically inclined and a skilled woodworker but had no construction experience. So he took a series of residential construction courses at the local community college.

https://success.cabrillo.edu/Student/Courses/Search?subjects...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#437

Post by [deleted] »

MrYellowP wrote: post #257
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

They don't need an excuse. Thanks to the idea of the Great Reset, everyone with enough money is trying to have a house they will eventually rent away, or live in it themselves. There's zero reason for prices to go down. None. I've read that plenty of houses are being bought even above asking price, so cost of building isn't a real factor. Sure, I'm not counting the crash where all the clueless dumb money will try to…

[deleted]

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#438

Post by itsoktocry »

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

>There may be 'blowout' prices on lumber itself, but around here I'm not seeing any 'blowout' prices on new construction in the short term.

Lumber is but one input cost. Labour is another, and it's still in short supply.

>but I think there's simply some "get high prices while you can".

Well, builders are under no obligation to provide services at cost plus.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#439

Post by nexuist »

shados wrote: post #410
baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

My friends and I always joke about quitting our software jobs to go work on a farm when things get rough. We're obviously just joking (things are never that bad). But you actually did it and living the meme. Kudos!

Wait, you guys are joking? Over in my corner everyone is completely serious about it. My girlfriend wants to buy our first cow in the next two years. I work fully remote so all I need to do is find some land.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#440

Post by noneeeed »

orthoxerox wrote: post #302
DeWilde wrote: post #276

Are houses in the US solely built using lumber/wood or do they have brick walls and concrete floors like here in Europe?

Where does insulation go in a brick single-family home?

New homes, certainly in the UK are double-skinned with insulation between the layers. In the past most were double-brick, but some combination of brick and timber has become common.
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