431–440 of 544 posts
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Just as one data point, the captain of the ship raised alarms about the virus spreading late last month. So it’s not exactly a recent outbreak. Of course, without testing from that period it’s impossible to know.
If the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
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> But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. They most certainly do lie. I know people who work in a particular police department, and they have been exercising a policy of not testing people they find dead. Situations like somebody found dead at home in bed, perhaps some blood that looks like it’s been coughed onto a pillow. Whoever’s in charge of policy wants the numbers lower, so they don’t do a test…
you'll see a spike in the overall mortality for a region. If you look at the mortality figures from the UK (published by the ONS) you can clearly see a peak, compared to the average range for that week over the last (10?) years. That peak matches the shape of the numbers of victims of covid (the number is higher because nursing homes are horribly affected)
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The Washington Post managed to get the original letter: https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1250840016806445056 It's pretty clear he was canned by a political appointee for political reasons.
Yes and no. He was relieved because he went around the chain of command, which is a universal career-ending move in the military even if you do it for all the right reasons—which he did. Also, although he was relieved of command, he wasn’t “fired” or “canned” or discharged from the Navy. He will undoubtedly go into an early retirement with a full pension at his current rank of Captain. That doesn’t change the fundame…
From all I could gather from Europe, I believe he acted as a human more than a robot and under the given circumstances it was the right call.
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Because it's spreading so very fast, and nobody has any pre-existing immunity to this new disease. The flu kills 60,000 Americans every year and so far COVID has killed about 10,000 -- over roughly the same flu season time period. The difference is that the flu is spread out over time and is fighting some pre-existing immunity and flu shots. It also has a lot to do with excess capacity. If there suddenly appeared a n…
So far Covid has killed 34,000 not 10,000 in the States.
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Just as one data point, the captain of the ship raised alarms about the virus spreading late last month. So it’s not exactly a recent outbreak. Of course, without testing from that period it’s impossible to know.
If the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
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If the virus spreads exponentially, you would expect most cases to be presymptomatic at any given time.
In an infinitely large population.
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Also 0% with asthma, obesity, diabetes, etc.
Not true. For various reasons, the military grants medical waivers and allows some people with asthma and other afflictions to remain enlisted.
There are probably some people who are overweight to a varying degree, but again people who get overweight and don’t get back within standards get removed from the Navy.
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"AFAIK, 100% of the canonical pre-existing conditions which are highly dangerous with COVID are disqualifiers for joining the military." Including being "old".
Disqualified from signing up, but you can age surely? I thought that smokers had elevated risks too, are smokers allowed in the military? As far as I can tell they are.
Squadron commanders, senior medical officer, Dept heads and the CO and Admiral would most likely be in their forties or early fifties.
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The simple math comment was about estimating IFR, given the sampling in the Netherlands, not about the whole domain. Maybe you are saying the implied model is too crude. Perhaps, but there's a value in it's simplicity - folks can get a convincing estimate of the rough scale of the IFR, that this disease is serious, not the flu etc. > let’s see how your prediction does over the next few months: between 14,400 and 80,0…
It's just splendid how a lot of people will criticize an estimate of deaths assuming no mitigating measures, and then say "see? no problem!" when the outcome is much better after stopping most economic activity for a month. War-time level mitigating measures.
If you look at economic indictors for ww2 for the UK or USA they are actually less bad, less sudden, than this lockdown.
Also if you think about the restrictions placed and the number of people affected.
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The 2% number is 2% of people who have bad symptoms die. 0.37% is 0.37% of all people who get it, including those who have mild/no symptoms die. It simply means a much larger percentage of people get it, not that any less people are dying. I’d say there’s a good chance that many of us have gotten it, and spread it, without knowing it.
> The 2% number is 2% of people who have bad symptoms die. I don't believe that's true. In countries such as Spain, right now there are about 80k confirmed recoveries and 19k deaths among a universe of 182k confirmed cases.