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Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

ma.ttias.be

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Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#431

Post by thomasmg »

zuzzurro wrote: post #429
thomasmg wrote: post #422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When comparing countries (e.g. Italy against South Korea), you have to consider many factors. Cultural factors: how quickly do people change their habits, to do e.g. social distancing. Do people in public wear surgical masks. Population density, temperature, weather,... Lying governments: I don't think South Korea or Italy are lying, but Iran is for sure, and China up to some point (at least early on). Italy stopped…

Can you provide the source for “Italy stopped testing at some point”, please?

A co-worker from Italy told me. But you can find this for example here as well: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-south-korea-dif... "Italy started out testing widely, then narrowed the focus so that now, authorities do not have to process hundreds of thousands of tests." (I don't normally read Aljazeera... just found this using Google.) It matches what my co-worker told me. See also https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ (I have no clue how reliable that source is)

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#432

Post by zuzzurro »

thomasmg wrote: post #431
zuzzurro wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide the source for “Italy stopped testing at some point”, please?

A co-worker from Italy told me. But you can find this for example here as well: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/italy-south-korea-dif... "Italy started out testing widely, then narrowed the focus so that now, authorities do not have to process hundreds of thousands of tests." (I don't normally read Aljazeera... just found this using Google.) It matches what my co-worker told me. See also https://www.worldomete…

I live in Italy and I'm not aware of any changes in the procedure for testing. If I read the worldometer link you provided what I see is that both on March 2nd and on March 9th Italy was second only to Korea in number of tests performed and that we moved from 386 tests per million people to 1005 in the same period. What am I reading wrong?

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#433

Post by DennisP »

fulafel wrote: post #430
DennisP wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the generally accepted advice, unless you have shortness of breath.

Do you happen to be a dutch doctor?

No I just read the public guidance, e.g. from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/st...

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#434

Post by magduf »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #256
ThePhysicist wrote: post #178

It's disappointing that the WHO and national agencies seem not able to adequately inform the public about their assessment of the situations, the models they're using and the conclusions they're drawing. Right now, the most shared article on Corona is written by a growth hacker from SF who cobbled together an Excel sheet and recommends it to people to decide whether they should close their companies or stay at home.…

It is surprising to me to. If this was Star Trek world, you'd have computational models built by experts shared and discussed the very first day, forming the very foundation of the discussion and policy around the virus. I know of a certain company whose entire purpose is building and selling a product that lets you plug in equations of complex, dynamic systems and play with the models to understand and predict thing…

>It is surprising to me to. If this was Star Trek world, you'd have computational models built by experts shared and discussed the very first day

The problem with Star Trek (esp. TNG) is that it doesn't reflect reality at all. It gives you the idea that the people in charge really know what they're doing and are competent. In our reality, this simply isn't the case.

I love watching TNG reruns to relax. It lets me fantasize about living in a well-run society run by mostly competent people. That's not the society I live in now, but this is why this form of entertainment is called "escapist".

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#435

Post by Rastonbury »

tomp wrote: post #61
Rastonbury wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's now how game theory works, the pandemic is not another player who is 2nd guessing the government or vice versa. Instead governments are weighing the probabilities (think a probability tree, according to your scenarios) you kind of point to this in your conclusion.

The point of Game Theory is to analyze the situation according to the actual payoff function for each player, not according to the socially (Pareto) optimal outcome. The 2 players here are the government, and the voters. The socially optimal scenario is action REGARDLESS of whether it's a pandemic or not (in a hyper-globalized world it would hurt a bit, but only the first time, after that the tourists, supply chains,…

It still isn't game theory, the government acts first, the voters act after after observing the outcome. There is no subsequent game.

It is simply up to the government to estimate probability and expected payoff. Optimal action for government is to take the least amount of action to prevent the voters from thinking its a pandemic. It isn't a game theory scenario, there are no nash equilibria.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#436

Post by DonHopkins »

timeattack wrote: post #197
DonHopkins wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe them, they don't have any gay people either.

Well, there is still no panic and hospitals are not overrun with patients. Russia is not China and far from being able to hide such things from public.

Yeah, the Russian government seems really trustworthy. /s You can depend on them to investigate the whistleblowers, who will mysteriously die from a sudden case of "community-acquired pneumonia".

Doctors in Russia are accusing the government of covering up its coronavirus outbreak and denying them protective equipment

https://www.businessinsider.nl/coronavirus-russia-doctors-sa...

>“While the whole world is facing an outbreak of a new coronavirus, Russia is facing an outbreak of a community-acquired pneumonia,” Vasilyeva said. “And as usual, we’re facing the lie of the authorities.”

>She said Russian authorities were referring to coronavirus cases as ordinary pneumonia, implying that they’re distinct from the coronavirus pandemic.

>Russian authorities strongly denied her claims. A statement from the Moscow Department of Health accused her of seeking “to discredit Russian medicine and relevant government agencies” and called for authorities to investigate her.

Coronavirus: Reported spike in pneumonia cases in Moscow as Russia accuses critics of fake news

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-...

>“I have a feeling they (the authorities) are lying to us,” said Anastasia Vasilyeva, head of Russia's Doctor's Alliance trade union.

>“I don't believe the coronavirus numbers,” said Ekaterina, a Moscow accountant. “I remember what they told us about Chernobyl at the time. It's only now that we're finding out what really happened.”

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