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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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431–440 of 671 posts

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#431
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

much worse than 2008 how? Global debt markets nearly collapsed and the single largest investment of american consumers crashed. You are making a really bold claim there and it looks like cheap catastrophizing.

If you read Ray Dalio, he seems think think the next recession will be a "debt supercycle" which could be worse than 2008. (this could be him plugging his hedge fund, but he's semi retired, and really has no more money needed to make personally) Note also that recessions have been growing longer each cycle. IMHO it's related to the bottom 99% having been getting paid smaller and smaller portions of wealth, and so a b…

> If you read Ray Dalio ...

Where does he publish his stuff?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#432
post #274
post #33

Key recession indicator is flashing red. Unlike the stock market, which is both backward- and forward-looking, the bond market is myopically forward-looking. When the yield between the 10-year and 2-year US treasury inverts, a recession is months away. This chart, showing the difference between the yield (or spread), shows recessions in grey: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/using-the-yield-spread-to-fo... Notice how…

Tell me about it. I offloaded most of my 401K into Fidelity long-term bond fund, and it's up 20% for the year.

At some point I have to better understand the weird relationship between bonds and bond funds. If rates are low then bonds are a low performing investment, but apparently bond funds go up.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#434

It will be interesting to watch a recession that hits with zero or near zero (or even negative) central bank rates together with ongoing market disruptions such as the US/China trade conflict and Brexit. By “interesting” I mean terrifying.

Not to mention, an enormous US debt.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#435
post #313
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this signal is watched more often now, it might be that it's predictive power is decreased. A metric you act on ceases to be a good metric.

On the other hand, is it possible it's a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Definitely, if people collectively start acting more cautiously and spend less the economy will contract.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#436
post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP is talking about a public figure, not an ideology or policy.

WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how.

Talking about people's opinions of an individual, not of a policy...

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#437
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches. What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what…

Dates for WW1: 7/28/1914-11/11/1918 Dates for WW2: 9/1/1939-9/2/1945 Dates for Great Depression: 10/29/1929 to 1939

I know when major historical events happened, thanks. Sorry if I did not state my case clearly enough.

What I was saying was the underlying currents in the economy and politics are similar to the ones that led to those 3 events separately, not necessarily in the causal order in which they happened.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

Is he still rich? The fact that he still hasn't released his taxes raises a lot of questions.

Mark Cuban speculated that he wasn't a billionaire, and maybe not even a 500-millionaire. He talked big and pushed the brand, because that's all he had.

His main claim to fame, nearest I can tell, is a mix of poorly run real estate, reality TV, schlepping shit tier steaks, and his online university that got sued out of existence.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

"Deep state" is a conspiracy theorist level term for some underground, underhanded Hoover/FBI style group that doesn't exist or is really just career officials, most of whom have left the administration especially the state department. This has left a massive shortage in expertise and qualified or cleared workers slowing down how the government can handle ongoing processes/projects and new issues like the many foreign policy blunders and embarrassments Trump and his often unqualified appointees have made.

The trade war is one such blunder that no responsible and informed person thought would do any good long term but was spun as a hard core negotiation tactic. Tariffs are import taxes charged mostly to residents and businesses in the home country or passed to the consumer by the importing firm. This short term harms everyone but could be the straw that pushes a close deal to be ratified. Unfortunately, we didn't have a close deal beyond the TPP and this wasn't a cooperative negotiation but one of necessity framed as USA vs China.

It was never a smart move and was recommended against by nearly all experts or those with experience in the matter and we have reached the logical conclusion of such policies to find that there is no deep state outside of conspiracy forums and our economic outlook and foreign policy is a dumpster fire as Trump is not rational but likely narcissistic and mislead or misinformed by his staff to ignore reality such as the looming economic crisis.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Trump has created 515 businesses and only 11 of them failed. That's a 98.64% success rate. He has a better track record than Elon Musk by an order of magnitude.

How many of those are real businesses? If all the company does is hold a single asset, such as a private plane, or only has other Trump org companies as customers then it isn't a real business. I'll bet most of those companies exist solely to limit liability or for tax reasons.
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