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Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

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Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm denying that facilitating crime is generally "real utility". In the case where criminals profit from harm, the criminals may personally experience utility from Bitcoin, but the total net utility is negative. E.g., if I steal your new $30k car and sell it to a fence for $10k paid in Bitcoin, I have experienced a $10k gain. But since you experienced a $30k loss, net utility is negative. Ransomware, often seen u…

>>In the case where criminals profit from harm, the criminals may personally experience utility from Bitcoin, but the total net utility is negative. In the context that you made the argument in, which is consumer demand for cryptocurrency, the type of utility we're talking about is utility for the user. >>In the case where the exchange in question is low harm, we generally see society evolving toward legality. E.g.,…

I'm not putting much energy into discouraging the use of cryptocurrency. The main energy I'm putting in is to pointing out that approximately nobody uses it as a currency. The Bitcoin emperor may not be entirely unclothed, but it's at best a shopworn thong.

I agree some governments do bad things and would also like less of that. I just don't think Bitcoin solves any of those problems. China may indeed be turning into a digital surveillance state, but that makes digital currencies like Bitcoin ineffective given that they depend on a free and open internet.

I also agree that some countries are only haphazardly governed, with tax evasion as common. But I don't think there are many countries like that that a) don't have perfectly good ways already to evade taxes, b) have reliable electrical grids and internet grids, and c) have sufficient economic activity to make them trendsetters for the global economy. Is Bitcoin used beyond the level of anecdote in Venezuela? Possibly. Will that matter to the adoption of Bitcoin in most of the world? No.

I'm definitely not saying that there's no conceivable utility in cryptocurrencies. I'm saying that there's approximately no practical, demonstrated utility aside from some light financial and commercial crime. My main problem with the Bitcoin promoters is that the only thing they have is theoretical, imagined, conceptual utility. Selling the dream was fine 10 years ago. But at this point the reality is pretty clear.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>In the case where criminals profit from harm, the criminals may personally experience utility from Bitcoin, but the total net utility is negative. In the context that you made the argument in, which is consumer demand for cryptocurrency, the type of utility we're talking about is utility for the user. >>In the case where the exchange in question is low harm, we generally see society evolving toward legality. E.g.,…

I'm not putting much energy into discouraging the use of cryptocurrency. The main energy I'm putting in is to pointing out that approximately nobody uses it as a currency. The Bitcoin emperor may not be entirely unclothed, but it's at best a shopworn thong. I agree some governments do bad things and would also like less of that. I just don't think Bitcoin solves any of those problems. China may indeed be turning into…

>>I agree some governments do bad things and would also like less of that. I just don't think Bitcoin solves any of those problems. China may indeed be turning into a digital surveillance state, but that makes digital currencies like Bitcoin ineffective given that they depend on a free and open internet.

China can't stop people in its borders from using cryptocurrency. Neither can Venezuela, where it is currently helping at least some people survive. Electronically transmittable information is just too hard to contain, even without an open internet.

With the greater utility that comes from a larger userbase and greater liquidity, and technological upgrades like better scalability, it's easy to imagine cryptocurrency helping a lot of people, who are currently repressed by major institutions like governments, protect and increase their wealth, leading to a free-er and more prosperous world.

>>My main problem with the Bitcoin promoters is that the only thing they have is theoretical, imagined, conceptual utility.

There are other, better cryptocurrencies than Bitcoin. But I do agree that much of the utility of cryptocurrency is imagined and theoretical.

>>Selling the dream was fine 10 years ago. But at this point the reality is pretty clear.

Cryptocurrency was a totally new paradigm when Bitcoin launched 9 years ago. It needs more time to be developed and tested before a verdict can be passed about the technology's inherent utility.

Re: Half of ICOs Die Within Four Months After Token Sales Finalized

#433
post #412
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Augur is launching its finished distributed prediction markets product today. We'll see if anyone uses it, but that's an ICO with a product.

Currently up to 98 contracts with $27.1k wagered: https://predictions.global/ It'll be interesting to see how much it keeps growing.

514 contracts, $1.2m (!)
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