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Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

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Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#431
post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is actually no reason to predict this to be years away except for like just future shock or something. Which is the big thing holding it back is just general disbelief. Waymo is actually testing for real in Arizona with selected people from the public. Yes, they include an employee in the car to monitor or take over if necessary. But from the numbers I saw they reported to the DMV like a year ago, with Waymo's…

> there is no way that we will be waiting until 2022 for this to be deployed How sure would you say you are? Want to put some money on that?

Before 2022? Yes, I should take that wager.

The tricky part about a wager is that it gives people a strong incentive to reinterpret events to their advantage, and its tough to define this in an objective way. Even if it is defined objectively there is ambiguity in language and again they may not realize they disagree on what they are wagering about.

But maybe in a few days when I get paid again I could make a wager if there was some agreement on what we were wagering. I have a feeling that once that got pinned down you wouldn't want to continue the wager.

2021 is four years from now. Do you really think that, in the next four years, this early rider program https://waymo.com/apply/ won't progress to allowing rides without the supervisor employee present on some rides? Once they have that working on a regular basis, should we not assume they will start charging for rides? They could actually do that now for certain routes and times if they had the government sign off on it. So it is feasible (although unlikely) that you could lose the bet tomorrow.

There are several other advanced self-driving vehicle programs out there including Cruise, Uber, etc. They are also using the LIDAR technology and detailed maps etc. Audi has announced they will have a 'level 4' self pilot mode for freeways in 2020-2021 https://media.audiusa.com/models/piloted-driving They announced that in 2017 (or maybe 2016) because they have been partnering with nVidia and saw nVidia actually demonstrated deep neural network autonomous driving. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmVWLr0X1Sk

GM, Ford, Honda, Tesla have all made announcements that they plan to deploy self driving vehicles on or before 2021. https://venturebeat.com/2017/06/04/self-driving-car-timeline...

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#432
post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That being said, Toyota's (and Subaru's) approach is the smart way forward - add sensors and capabilities that augment the human, but leave the human always responsible and in control. In order for a crash to happen, the human AND the machine BOTH have to miss it. That's the approach we know won't work. That was Tesla's first-round autopilot, the self-crashing car. The one that would happily run into obstacles protru…

Interesting. The three of them show the car being hit from the left side when driving on a high-way. It seems that the autopilot is bad at recognizing objects that suddenly appear on that side. More like, if you are not a car on the left lane, then you are not. Bam, you got an accident. Edit: Is the last video in the US? Is it normal for other drivers not to stop when they see an accident?

Right. Tesla's round 1 "autopilot" used Mobileye's car recognizer for obstacle detection. If it didn't look like a car, it didn't get recognized as an obstacle.

I wrote a previous YC posting on this, on why you need to use geometry first, then object recognition.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#433
post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, the speed limits are completely reasonable if you don't want to remove people from the streets - but your suggestion seemed to be that people were near-immediately removed from the streets instead of limiting what cars can do at first. There were 30 years when cars were lawfully limited to 4mph in rural areas, so your "even on empty roads" point is moot.

There where not exactly a lot of cars over most of that 30 years. However, my point was more cars had strong advocates pushing adoption where pedestrians where simply used to how things where and never really organized to protect how things where. Thus you get jaywalking as a crime, and justified many deaths as people breaking the law instead of the naritive that cars are insanely dangerous and should be banned. In t…

Note that jaywalking is very much not a crime in the UK. Off of a motorway (which is a relatively recent invention), roads are still for people to some extent. Hopping off the pavement for a couple of seconds to bypass someone who's decided to stop right in front of you is semi-normal, much of rural UK doesn't even have pavements, and we get taught how to Stop, Look, Listen, Live in order to cross a road without a traffic light as kids.

If a pedestrian starts to cross the road, they have right of way. I've been on roads in some city centres where vehicles have to be very, very careful as there's a road through a pedestrianised area and people are rather bold crossing the road. If the vehicle was to cause injury, the driver would likely be liable.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#434
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are very few technical and infrastructure issues remaining. No such investment is necessary. https://jonathannen.com/captain-ai.html

Really? No investment at all? At least it's a falsifiable statement. Denver International Airport has 10 runways. Only three have ILS CAT IIIc approaches, and that is the only instrument approach procedure that permits full autoland in zero visibility. So you're saying it's completely OK to have 1/3 utilization of the airport's runways for automated landings. Oh and, those three runways? 34L, 34R, 35R. They all point…

I said no such investment was needed, in response to your phrase "... massive investment that would be required to solve the technical and infrastructure limitations of the existing system" which I took as implying that there were still huge research problems to be overcome in aircraft automation. Which there are not.

Some investment will certainly be needed. ADS-B is only beginning to be rolled out, and it will be essential for pilotless planes. But the technical issues for automating planes are mostly solved. Aircraft automation is an engineering problem; not a research problem. The investments still needed are engineering investments.

In contrast, getting to Level 5 automation in cars is very much still a research problem, and as such, orders of magnitude greater resources of money and time will be required to solve it.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#435
post #201

Completely agree with this. It will be ridiculously difficult to get to Level 5 automation in cars. It's decades away, not years. Ironically though, part of the reason it's so difficult is that during the transition the roads will still be populated with human-driven cars. If we passed laws to the effect that "as of date X, no human-driven vehicles or pedestrians will be allowed on roads in the set {Y}", we could get…

> It will be ridiculously difficult to get to Level 5 automation in cars. It's decades away, not years. One could make the convincing argument that Waymo's vehicles are already at Level 5; where they probably struggle (I have no examples or data on this) is probably in inclement conditions (rain, snow, fog, etc). That said, even in such conditions, they probably perform much better than a human driver. For instance,…

I agree. The other day I was driving on the highway and ahead of me was a pulled-over pickup and tons of personal belongings strewn all over the road. Obviously the stuff had blown out of the truck. The driver was on foot, dodging cars while trying to retrieve his cargo. I was able to slow down and thread my way through the junk while avoiding hitting him -- or making myself a target for the cars behind me -- but what would an automated system have done? Probably its best choice would have been to pull over and stop because it didn't know what the heck was going on or how to deal with it.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#436
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? No investment at all? At least it's a falsifiable statement. Denver International Airport has 10 runways. Only three have ILS CAT IIIc approaches, and that is the only instrument approach procedure that permits full autoland in zero visibility. So you're saying it's completely OK to have 1/3 utilization of the airport's runways for automated landings. Oh and, those three runways? 34L, 34R, 35R. They all point…

I said no such investment was needed, in response to your phrase "... massive investment that would be required to solve the technical and infrastructure limitations of the existing system" which I took as implying that there were still huge research problems to be overcome in aircraft automation. Which there are not. Some investment will certainly be needed. ADS-B is only beginning to be rolled out, and it will be e…

This is what's so annoying about talking to people who very obviously do not have a sufficient common frame of reference and then go on pontificating about how easy to solve and narrow in scope all remaining problems are. It's condescending, and it's stupid.

It sounds like you think most commercial aviation flights in the U.S. autoland. Almost none of them do. Most flights are landed by pilots. Some portion of the approach is done by autopilot but the landing is done by a pilot. Many airports in the country have mandatory noise abatement. Are you aware that ILS approaches are incompatible with noise abatement? These approaches and landings are hand flown in visual conditions. So your plane can't just use instrument landings designed for bad weather flying. You have to R&D a whole new approach to landing method that's noise abatement compatible, to be able to have pilotless planes doing autolandings. Unsolved problem. Seems significant research related to me, not merely an engineering problem.

Why will it take orders of magnitude greater resources and time to solve the auto driving problem, and yet all such research problems for auto flying are solved? What data do you have that causes you to conclude that one is solved and the other is far from solved? What's the difference in cognition and judgement requirements between the two? What's the relevance of experience? Why do you suppose there are so much more substantial knowledge and experience requirements in pilot certification than driver licensing? Why does it take so long to learn how to become an airline transport pilot? Why have gradations of certification? If it's so much simpler of a system to automate as you state, then it should be a simpler system for a human to learn and just plug into, than learning to drive. But it's the exact opposite, it's much more complex than driving, despite automation.

And yet you're saying no, it's simpler and solved, to just replace all of that cognition and judgement with computers and automation. No more research required, just go built it, according to you. Strikes me as a lot of hubris.

Additionally, air traffic controllers are part of this cognitive and judging process of making planes move around. They train for years as well. But despite every flight requiring two human brains in flight, and part of a human brain involved on the ground, you're claiming that driving cars is more cognitively complicated to automate. Why? What's the basis? A single person does this in a car, and they almost always can multitask totally unrelated things like listening to music, or conversing with passengers.

CAT III landings do not incluce runway egress. Unsolved problem to do without a pilot. Sounds like massive R&D is needed, not just engineering or it'd already be automated.

Autopilots don't do turbulence or icing conditions well. They're disabled in severe cases, and such conditions aren't always predictable or even known until the moment they're encountered. Sounds like an R&D problem, not just an engineering problem. Landing on ice, snow, and heavy rain? Pilots do that by hand, not autopilots. AGain, more R&D needed, not just engineering. For reasons unknown you want us to believe that for planes these are solved problems, or easily solved problems, while identical situations for autonomous cars are still difficult unsolved problems. Why? Sounds like you don't know what you're talking about.

The term autopilot is idiotic. The most sophisticated autopilot follows a defined path, the path is defined by a pilot. It effectively maintains altitude, heading, and speed. That's it. There is no code that enables the autopilot to think like a pilot and redefine the path, which happens in all flights. Clearance changes are common place for many reasons. So you need to design a pilotless version of the current ATC to pilot to autopilot carrier pigeon system. Is it an engineering problem? Or a research problem? Seems like both to me because there's no plan for it right now, no design.

Why is ADS-B essential? It's merely scaled out secondary radar. It solves a very vertical problem. It doesn't have sufficient precision to help with landing. It says nothing about how to utilize this information. Humans do that. Seems to me it's a research problem to create an AI that replaces the evaluation and judgement of a pilot, not just engineering.

sigh

Gusty takeoffs and landings? Autopilots don't do that right now. Sounds like a research problem, not an engineering one.

Emergency procedures? This is 100% the domain of human pilots right now. Code that for the pilotless aircraft. Seems R&D related, not merely an engineering task.

The autopilot needs to meet the functional equivalent of competency for the applicable parts of pilot certification in FAR 61. It needs to be able to conform with all or at least some substantial subset of aviation regulations FAR 91, 135, and 121 as right now a huge amount of this conformance is done by pilots. Otherwise, you're redesigning the entire aviation system from the ground up. Either way this sounds to me like a massive research problem, not just an engineering problem.

This list goes on and I pretty much think you're an idiot, not because you're ignorant, but because you're ignorant, deny it, and then handwave bullshit that all the seriousl research problems are solved and all that remains is building things. It's just - it's really stupid and condescending.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#437
post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a few more very common examples of humans using context: A human will spot a person wearing headphones and recognize that person has a low situational awareness. The computer doesn't come close to even having the optical resolution to do that if the AI was perfect - remember human vision is 570+ megapixels, even a 4K video stream is literally two orders of magnitude lower. [Now think about the fact that if we bui…

> remember human vision is 570+ megapixels This seems to come from http://www.clarkvision.com/articles/eye-resolution.html But that number is a calculation of the maximum resolving power of the human eye filled across a 120 degree field of view. The fovea is the only portion of the retina that actually attains that acuity and it encompasses roughly 2 degrees in the center of the retina. There are roughly 120 million…

A lot of processing is done "on the road", starting from ganglia in the retina itself; so a direct comparison with 4k 60fps video is grossly incorrect.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What they don't do is take over steering. A last-second takeover of steering would make things worse some of the time. I have a Honda. While its lane-keeping system won't steer during a crash, it definitely does steer to keep you centered in the lane (when it's able). That could help avoid all kinds of crashes due to inattentive lane-drifting.

Is it less fatiguing?

Yes. You still have to pay attention, but there's not as much pressure and fewer startling surprises.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#439
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious, isn't it? Humans rely on auditory information to enhance situational awareness so you'd think that would factor into the design of a machine that needs as much situational awareness as possible. For example, emergency response vehicles announce their arrival and direction often long before any visual contact is made. How will deaf autonomous cars recognize incoming emergency responders if the view is obstruc…

Are deaf people allowed to drive? How do you think they handle these situations?

Per [0] they are allowed to drive in the US, and do not have higher accident rates than hearing drivers[1]. Also, "There are now devices available that can be used in r cars that react to the frequency of sirens and which emit visual warnings of approaching emergency vehicles to assist deaf drivers and those with hearing loss" (which could presumably also "assist" self-driving cars).

[0] https://www.enddd.org/end-distracted-driving/enddd-presentat...

[1] This web site's bona fides aren't clear, but its mission does not seem to specifically include advocating for the deaf, so there's no obvious reason for the information presented to be biased in favor of the deaf.

Re: Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously? >Computer speech recognition now has a greater accuracy than human speech recognition, but the types of use cases for talking to a computer are much less sensitive to error. Short snippets and phrases that are designed to get something done right now. You just said that speech recognition doesn't work in general. In general is exactly where self-driving has to work. If we just needed self-driving trains, w…

> You just said that speech recognition doesn't work in general. I replied that the accuracy is high. It turns out, in retrospect, that accuracy and usefulness are two different things. In regards to automated driving, achieving better than human isn't all that hard. Heck backup cameras with little "warning zone" lines on them are better than human for the one particular task of backing up. Cruise control systems tha…

> The problem with voice reco isn't recognition technology, that works fine, it is with having computers understand what the hell to do with the voice.

If I type "remind me at 9am to water the plants", it does the right thing 100% of the time.

If I say "OK, Google, remind me at 9am to water the plants"...not so much.

If it just got "remind me at 9am" 100% of the time, I'd be satisfied. The fact that"water the plants" becomes "watering lamps" doesn't matter--I can figure out what I meant.

But it doesn't transcribe "remind me at 9am" correctly. It knows what to do with that text, but it doesn't get that far reliably enough.

Maybe I haven't tried saying this to humans enough for comparison, but right now, I'm not satisfied with the transcription of even the most common phrase. (Well over 90% of what I say to my phone starts with "OK, Google, remind me ..."

---

For fun, I just tried reading this out to my phone, and it got that phrase all three times:

> If I type remind me at 9 a.m. to water the plants it does the right thing 100% of time if I say OK Google remind me at 9 a.m. to water plants not so much if it just got remind me at 9 a.m. 100% of time I'd be satisfied the fact that water the plants becomes watering clamps doesn't matter I can figure out what I meant but it

Not bad. It cut off partway through, and maybe I need to speak my punctuation, but it's less error prone than normal. Helps to speak very clearly, unsurprisingly.

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