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US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

nytimes.com

431–436 of 436 posts

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sure feels like a bubble to me. I don't know how many friends I have with six figures of student loans and no career, but it's a lot. Considering that those loans don't even go away with bankruptcy, it's waaaay too many. I've noticed that younger students are starting to realize how much risk there is in something like that and shy away when my generation didn't. Maybe it's that I grew up in a "striving" middle cl…

What do you think about Make School in comparison to Lambda University? They seem to based around the same concept of paying the fee for training through salary repatriation.

You should also check out Holberton School, same tuition fee model.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this incentive is that it would encourage the university to only accept applicants who have a good financial background to begin with. For example, applicants whose parents have significant assets. We don't like to admit it, but this would probably be as useful a predictor as to the student's income as the quality of education. If universities started choosing applicants this way, we end up with a sy…

They'd be looking to accept the students with the greatest aptitude for a high paying career. There may be some level of correlation, but I highly doubt it's as strong as the ivy leagues would lead you to believe.

The correlation is very strong. The single biggest predictive input into a child's income is their parent's income.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many colleges are being pressured (by accreditation committees, donors, government, etc.) to provide methods for students to acquire connections that make it easier to succeed. Networking opportunities, guest lecturers from industry, internships, and special programs are fairly common ways that colleges can make a difference for students beyond an education. While some (perhaps many or most in some schools) professor…

So that's how they justify the administrative bloat in universities these days. And it's a great excuse to keep hiring lecturers instead of faculty! I'm not trying to be hard on you, it's just that I'm skeptical about whether new non-academic programs in universities improve outcomes enough to offset their costs to individual students. The check on administrative bloat is very weak in the US, and arbitrary ratings li…

I realize this is days later, but I felt the need to respond even though I didn't feel the need to check for responses earlier.

I do see how it can be easy to believe that ratings have more influence than students. At the same time, many ratings include student surveys as a substantial part of the ratings process.

Additionally, I can see how it can be easy to believe that there is significant administrative bloat in universities, even when the reports on funding sources and costs state that the administrative costs have been going down. For many the budgets and administration of public universities simply don't have enough transparency, and even when they strive to achieve transparency there may not be enough historical data to give people any real perspective.

Further, it's easy to point the finger at all sorts of practices within a University as sources of said administrative bloat, regardless of whether the budgets support those arguments.

When you have a significant reduction in state funding for public universities, you drive those institutions to look for ways to overcome those budget shortfalls. Generally speaking, it's hard to get people to accept salary reductions, so cost-cutting measures come from other directions. Where I work, tenured/tenure-track faculty in some colleges are teaching significantly more credit-hours than they would have ten years ago, so there are fewer lecturers, students, part-time faculty teaching classes. Since the tenured faculty don't get paid more for teaching more classes, this is a pretty effective cost-cutting measure for some colleges, but it has its limits, especially since those faculty are also expected to continue with other intellectual contributions (such as research).

Every new staff or faculty member hired anywhere within the University has to be justified. They no longer hire someone simply because a position has been vacated, so when someone retires it's possible that their duties simply get distributed among others and the position goes away.

However, if someone's job is basically fund-raising, it's probably going to be easier to get approval for that position, especially if you can find a candidate with a proven history of improving the budget situation for an educational institution.

Meanwhile, programs and physical things like buildings and equipment tend to be attractive to donors. You can put up buildings and fill them with equipment by demonstrating a willingness to pay for 50% of the cost and then creating a big push for donors, and with the right people working on the project you can end up paying significantly less (or nothing). Further, you can then leverage the new building/equipment for further facilities/equipment upgrades.

Good luck getting someone to pay someone's pension or to pay the salary of any of the staff dealing with the budget, custodial work, IT, etc.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#434

$600B additional student debt over 10 years sounded high to me, so I did the ballpark check. $600B over 10 years is $60B/year. There are about 20 million college students [1]. That means $3000 per student per year on average. If loans are paid back over 10-20 years, this really says that students are borrowing $3000 more per year than they were 10-20 years ago. The article suggested that borrowing was about $600B tot…

fantastic math and well reasoned. thanks for sharing.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You basically said it yourself. They could just go to instate public schools.

Even in public state university tuition is quite high. Community colleges are more reasonable. I'm considering suggesting my kids go to local community college for 2 years and then university to finish their degrees. We'll see when we get there.

> Even in public state university tuition is quite high.

Compared to what, the price of a hamburger? In state tuition can be 1/2 or 1/3 the price of out of state tuition at the same school, and state schools have lower tuition than a lot of other unis already.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree! His simple-but-not-too-simple model to explain international macro economics is really great, and happens to explain a lot of the dynamics of what we see these days. It's appealing intellectually; I like small and simple models. I suppose if we see a major dislocation in the Chinese economy in the next 2-3 years, his model will be extra-confirmed. (That's a major point he makes on his blog.)

Can you recommend a good starting point to read up on this?

A little late, but Pettis obliged with his latest post. It's more directly answering your question, I think:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14408165

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