Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly, because the amount of people on bench due to robots doesn't scale with the amount of customer opportunities. There are only so much customers to chose from and all of them have finite budgets. The exponential growth curve only exists in MBA books.
In case of productivity surplus, exponential demand can be easily created by government: e.g. they print N trillions dollars, and say we spend it on some (hopefully useful) mega project(s): fusion, carbon capture, give nice home to everyone, fully verifiable, glitch free, hyper optimized software, etc. It will immediately create lots of demand, supply chains, customers, etc. You can see current AI hype as example, an…
AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
421–430 of 483 posts
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#422I have witnessed first hand this and must say is a disaster, the person that came up with a fix to an issue that I didn't understand tried everything to convince me that the automated fix works. Indeed the fix did work, but when I asked him to explain me the problem and the fix he started to use the prompt to get answers. At that point I just let it go, the only thing that I mentioned later on is that I'm ok with pus…
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#423Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#424> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…
My team is currently developing our 3rd product this year where 99% of the code is written by an agent. One thing I've definitely noticed is our problem solving hasn't stopped, it just moved up the stack to the "agent layer". A big part of this is ensuring that a "bad" engineers can still write solid code and also investing in systems that make it easier for us to review code. When it comes to writing code, we have t…
But do the people still understand what the system is doing and why?
You can have code that perfectly follows every standard and passes every test while gradually building a system nobody has a mental model of.
> an engineer only has to take a cursory look at the code
If that means you’ve automated away checking syntax and implementation, great. But we already had that before. If it means nobody needs to understand the change anymore, then this is exactly the risk I'm talking about in the article.
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#425> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…
I think the real pain though is that AI also often removes the feedback loop between "good" engineers and "bad" engineers. A lot of "good" engineers started as "bad" engineers that learned, sometimes the hard way and sometimes with patient mentorship, how to be better engineers. Patient mentorship becomes harder as code reviews become less personal. "The Hard Way" becomes harder when the consequences get divorced from actions. For a bad engineer it becomes "Claude broke Production" more often than "I broke Production" and learning mostly ceases.
We're starting to recognize how many junior developers AI is replacing, making the pipeline to senior developers harder (if not disappearing), but we also maybe aren't focusing enough on how much we are also losing the pipeline from "bad" to "good" engineers.
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#426I think of it more as "the automation of the stackoverflow engineer". In enterprise software, there has always just been a non-negotiable large volume of code that was required to be written. This has traditionally been offloaded by having seniors do the hard thinking then distill it into a jira ticket which could be handed off to an engineer that'd actually write the code and punch every hiccup into google along the…
... And Django and React removed ("stole the jobs from under") the engineers handcrafting html and jQuery web pages/apps.
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#427Migration plan? Just ask Claude when shit hits the fan. You'll make a plan when you need one.
> By the time you've untangled one bad decision, five more have been merged.
I'm slowly (partially ironically/sardonically/nihilistically) adopting a mindset of accelerationism towards the collapse of software development - it was largely done wrong from day 1 and wasn't "real engineering" to a sufficient degree to not lead to the mess that we've been in maybe for the past 20-40 years. The only thing AI did was take away the brakes and press down on the accelerator, we're already headed towards a cliff and have been for a long time.
If the code in airplanes and spaceships was developed with the same degree of care and attention as "good code", you'd see those dropping out of the sky regularly. If they built bridges like we build software, they'd fall apart regularly as well. Good code CANNOT hinge on the opinions of some senior dev, or even a group of them - it must be provably good. And if it must be provable, then these checks must be automatable. Bad code (whatever that means, however you'd manage to classify the difference between AI slop and what you want to see) should be IMPOSSIBLE to get into the system at all, due to those automated checks.
Be it good enough test coverage, automated checks for usability and end to end coverage of the features, project/domain specific lists of architectural rules (think ArchUnit), needing proofs not just tests etc. We will never have that - our OSes are bad, our browsers and other essential software is bad, our programming languages are bad (the fact that unchecked exceptions even exist in languages is a cardinal sin), same for databases and tbh any other class of software you can look at.
This impassioned comment might border on a rant, but my argument is that the past decades aren't the baseline of good code, we'd probably need to spend 10-100x more effort to produce 100-10x less code, but make the existing code bulletproof - there is no reason for more than one OS to exist, no reason for more than one UI framework to exist (or even all of the egregious ways how the web platform was transformed from documents and links to a collection of badly written apps, which eventually infected the desktop with Electron, due to the native GUI development also being severely neglected), no reason for more than one web framework to exist or even more than one programming language to exist in mainstream usage outside of research and looking for the solution to use for the next decade/century of software development. Yes, I'm exaggerating, but the correct answer is probably closer to 1 than to 1000.
Obviously that'd lead to death by comittee and some degree of experimentation is necessary, so hey we end up with a new slopped together library every week and I know nothing and nothing works anyways. I wonder if we had ONE high level programming language, whether over time it would have evolved from C++ to Rust (sans odd parallelism), and if it was based on formal proofs, then migrating between language features could have also been fully automated, alongside enough pushback to any feature deemed not worth it. On the other hand, even with all of the world's developers concentrating effort, something like that might be above our cognitive abilities, so probably not - just too hard to reason abuot.
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#428> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…
This 100%. I just requested a hackathon for performance improvement (might be wasted effort). We are pushing tons of code and now our CPU usage has grown exponentially over the past year because the bad engineers just ship whatever Claude gives them and do not think about the consequences. Our biggest consumer of CPU right now is HTTP connection churn because engineers are creating new clients every request we handle…
If you are closing one ticket per week with "good" code but your teammate does three with "bad" code - it's actually you are a bad employee. Also they may say you are a toxic one.
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#429> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…
To everyone complaining about "slop" and "+20000 PRs," what kind of systematic quality assurance, test plans, and tech debt reductions were you doing before the "LLMpocalypse?" Were you only relying on the difficulty of producing "working" from replacement skill/rate "software engineers" and their level of disinterest being the only real circuit breaker?
We had tests, CI, code review, QA, architectural reviews, etc. None of those disappeared. But they were designed for a world where producing such a large amount of change was impossible.
Tests don’t solve that. Tests can tell you that the behaviours you thought to test still work. How many times have you had a completely green CI with 100% coverage and still shipped a bug?
Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering
#430Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It will become very easy to build most software We keep hearing this, but where is the Photoshop killer written by a gas station attendant? Where is the PayPal alternative written by a retired nurse? Over and over we're told that software is now trivial to write, and Claude is evidently writing some billions of lines of code a day, but where are the results? Where is the vibe coded app toppling the legacy hand-code…
My non technical wife asked ai to brush up the photo for her cv. Ai did that with whatever cli tools were available and what it would write itself. Ai is not a faster horse. It is a phase shift. We won't see a gas station clerk write photoshop because we won't need a photoshop.