Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

UAE to leave OPEC

ft.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

421–430 of 750 posts

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#421

Post by ifwinterco »

slibhb wrote: post #88
delecti wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the Gulf and Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf. I’d expect to see an Emirati deal with Egypt and India next if this hypothesis is correct. Don't Egypt and Israel hate each other though? Could UAE feasibly align with both?

Virtually all Arabs hate Israel but Arab governments are more varied. The modern Egyptian state is oriented toward close partnership with the US, and a large part of that was peace with Israel post '73. So yes, the UAE could align with both.

Various Arab states maintain this balancing act between a virulently anti-Israel population and a US-aligned (in most cases, US-installed) regime that’s tacitly okay with the existence of Israel.

It’s actually surprising it’s achievable for so long but in the long term doesn’t feel stable given the direction things are headed

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#422

Post by wolvoleo »

cma wrote: post #391
dlubarov wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can just get married abroad. There are even online ceremonies now. A decent number of Israeli Jews have to do that as well, since Israel recognizes Jewish marriages only under orthodox rabbis. Some Israeli Jews are not even considered Jews under strict orthodox rules.

> They can just get married abroad. They don't have to if they are one of the approved religions. That's a restriction on religious freedom. > since Israel recognizes Jewish marriages only under orthodox rabbis I don't get how is this evidence of religious freedom.

And religion and marriage really shouldn't have anything to do with one another. Atheists can marry too.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#423

Post by nakedrobot2 »

Raed667 wrote: post #79
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen RealLifeLore has been doing a decent job covering it [1]. The broad summary is you have the Saudi-backed unity government, the Iranian-backed Houthis, who claim all of Yemen but practically want North Yemen, and the UAE-backed STC, who also claim all of Yemen but practically want South Yemen. Emiratis bring the Israelis to the party. The Iranians…

Johnny Harris has a pretty decent video on the topic as well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsO-rULEfrk

Johnny Harris is astoundingly wrong about most things, so I'll skip it thanks

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#424

Post by bluGill »

sarjann wrote: post #241
bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Isn't the solution in game theory when there are multiple turns to just repeat the move the previous person made. So if the other side overpumped by x1 amount then you pump an extra x1 the next turn / year (maybe multiplied some reference production factor as they don't all have the same absolute limits).

Not always. In a simple game yes, but sometimes the game is more complex and so it is to your advantage to play even when you know others will defect.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#425

Post by [deleted] »

ethbr1 wrote: post #269
wat10000 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've also been cooperating on blockading Gaza for a couple of decades. Israel gets most of the attention for that, mostly rightfully so, but people seem to forget that there's a border with Egypt too and that has also had very limited access.

As an Arab friend summed it up, 'All Arab governments like to trumpet the Palestinian cause when it serves them, but none of them are willing to lift a finger to help the Palestinians.'

[deleted]

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#426

Post by nostrademons »

fulafel wrote: post #332
cmiles8 wrote: post #132

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy. This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dyna…

This is horrible from POV of mitigating the climate catastrophe and the global death toll. We (as in humanity) are really late in ramping down fossils production and use.

Eh if the U.S. gets into a forever war with Iran the same way we did with Iraq and Afghanistan and Vietnam (or like how Russia got into one with Afghanistan and Ukraine), the climate crisis is solved. Five years of the Straight of Hormuz being closed and everybody will be using EVs.

Legislation isn't going to work. Economics isn't going to work. War - which cuts off the flow of petroleum because nobody is willing to risk their life for oil - will work very quickly. Nothing quite like a shortage to spur innovation.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#427

Post by fakedang »

8note wrote: post #319
deepsun wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, why? Israel would celebrate. But NONE of the Arab countries want to help Gaza people really.

if egypt opened the border, it would mean weapons and bombs flowing from egypt into gaza. thats not something israel would be excited about

More like refugees flowing out, which Egypt doesn't want to deal with.

The Palestinians didn't help their cause with Yasser Arafat's Black September uprising in Jordan. Then they topped that up with strong support for Saddam when he invaded Kuwait. Like the ones in Kuwait were literally betraying Kuwaitis to the Iraqi troops.

Oh, and did I forget Lebanon? They literally fomented the civil war.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#428

Post by fragmede »

cman1444 wrote: post #381
don_esteban wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only is the renewable energy cheaper, it also raises energy independence, which turns out to be quite relevant in today's world. Furthermore, it also reduces the drain on the (often very fragile, for thirld world countries) foreign reserves, especially relevant when the oil prices fluctuate wildly. If your solar panels are old and you don't have money to replace them, you get slightly less electricity. If you are…

This is exactly why I don't think it's a huge risk to be reliant on China for solar panels. If relations between your country and China go bad, it can't be that much of an emergency when they stop exporting them to you. All the panels you already bought still work! Unless there is some hidden cybersecurity risk of them shutting off panels remotely?

Yes, exactly. The panel's control system is connected to the Internet and there's an app that an attacker could take advantage of to interfere with critical infrastructure at an inopportune time.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#429

Post by ceejayoz »

perpetualpear wrote: post #413
watwut wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arabs dont have equal standing and treatment in israel. Also, Israel is increasingly far right and best estimate is less rights in the future.

There are 2 million muslim, mostly arab, citizens who are officially and legally equal to jews. They are distinct from the arabs in Gaza or the west bank, who are not citizens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Penalty_for_Terrorists_L...

> The law imposes the death penalty on persons convicted of fatal terrorist attacks. In military courts, the death penalty is the "default"; only Palestinians are tried. In civilian courts, both Israelis and Palestinians are tried, but the law applies only to those who "'intentionally cause the death of a person with the aim of denying the existence of the State of Israel'—a definition designed to exclude Jewish terrorists". It therefore "effectively enshrines capital punishment for Palestinians alone".

And to preempt the "but that's Palestinians, not Israeli Arabs" bit, nope:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terms_for_Palestinian_citizens...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_citizens_of_Israel lists all sorts of other smaller inequities:

> In 2005, the Follow-Up Committee for Arab Education said that the Israeli government spent an average of $192 a year on Arab students compared to $1,100 for Jewish students.

> In the 2002 budget, Israel's health ministry allocated Arab communities less than 1% of its 277 m-shekel (£35m) budget (1.6 m shekels {£200,000}) to develop healthcare facilities.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#430

Post by winter_blue »

tsoukase wrote: post #388
RobRivera wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a fun line, but the volume of money they have and the way its managed says they are looking at retaining that wealth somehow

Their whole investment castle is built on sand (pun intended) and when oil even remotely starts to fade out as a commodity, it will crumble instantly. Panic will ensue and corruption will be rampant in order to continue the lavish consumerism. Everything will be sold for pennies. The difficult thing is not to make money once, it's to keep them afterwards.

A sovereign wealth fund with over $1 trillion USD (so with over $1 million per Emirati citizen) which invests heavily in U.S. equities will be sold for pennies?

So U.S. equities will be sold for pennies?

Are you predicting a U.S. stock market crash bigger than the Great Depression, when oil runs out?

Post reply on HN