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Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

joanwestenberg.com

421–430 of 513 posts

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#421
post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course you're not here to argue, there's no precedent for what you're suggesting. Nobody has fought against Apple, Google or Microsoft and taken home a significant victory. This leads me to believe that the power structures can't be fixed. There is no amount of protesting that can coerce private capital to take humanity's best interests to heart, that's the tragedy of the commons. There is no guerilla warfare you…

Your belief that "power structures can't be fixed" perfectly illustrates what educator Paulo Freire described as the oppressed having a "diffuse, magical belief in the invulnerability and power of the oppressor". Anthropologist David Graeber noted that modern capitalism has constructed a vast bureaucratic apparatus "designed, first and foremost, to destroy any sense of possible alternative futures" and to ensure that…

Oppressors are not a monoculture. Sometimes they are extremely entrenched, sometimes they are fragile like a teacup. Sometimes they seek decelerationist and traditionalist narratives, while others seek accelerationist and neoliberal ideals. Outlining "oppression" as a dialectical certainty is why revolutionary politics die in the cradle while capitalism has Billions Served written under the sign. Reality is convoluted, and politics are not a computer that transist from "populist" to "authoritarian" depending on the program you run. Plenty of revolutionary history has taught us that.

Framing Apple, Google or Microsoft in this manner is counterproductive and does not produce any serious roadmap to undermine their behavior. The will to change has to come from the top, or else it will never be conclusively realized or codified. Change has to be genuine and desirable, or else someone else will come along to copy FAANG and take their place. This is why regulation provoked such a strong anti-intervention sentiment from businesses; it works. A USB-C iPhone was inevitable, but only once you changed incentive to punish lock-in.

On oppression's flip side, one could argue that the continued success of businesses like IBM provides precedent for private capital to aid and abet mass atrocities without ever facing real punishment. Internal revolution has never produced results in these circumstances, and I don't think it ever will. You can't rely on mushy-gushy feelings to make people do what's right, you have to lay down the law in black-and-white.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#422

Is the 1 percenters getting dumber or acting like it? Like 10 years ago, I felt like Andreesen and Elon were thought leaders. Now they sound like idiots. Did I or did they change? Did I grow up and they changed to a younger audience and what I used to enjoy was just a different kind of stupid?

The question is what you think now of their old opinions. If you think the same, they have changed. If you think differently, you have changed. If I look at Elon and Marc's interviews from 10-15 years ago I am still roughly 80% in agreement, 20% disagreement. I feel the same about what they used to say today, as I did back then. Now I'm 20% in agreement (they definitely still have interesting thoughts) and 80% absolu…

> Now I'm 20% in agreement (they definitely still have interesting thoughts) and 80% absolutely disgusted (with both, but particularly Musk).

> So I genuinely think they changed in this regard

Everyone has changed. You, me, Musk, Andreesen. But in that time, the disparity between them and "us" in wealth and even more importantly, political power, has ballooned. Their increasing power has fueled their sense of infallibility and inevitability.

It's not yet clear what these changes will engender in us. We are more numerous and divergent in perspectives and interests.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is a social dumbass with the emotional maturity of an edgy 14 year old boy, but calling him a fraud I'd say is false and unproductive.

He is absolutely a fraud. He has been lying about many things for more than a decade to boost his stock. He has more in common with Trevor Milton than anyone else.

An atheist might call Franklin Graham or Jerry Falwell a fraud, but the people who fill the stadiums and pews keep coming back, year after year, decade after decade, generation after generation. They are obviously getting something positive out of the experience.

Same with Musk and the stock market. At some point, victim-blaming may be the only rational explanation left. His followers are rubes falling for a fraud, yes, but it can hardly be considered involuntary or exploitative at this point. The rubes have become rich simply by sticking together under Musk's benevolent gaze, dominating financial discourse in the broader market. It will continue to work for them, right up until it doesn't.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when Elon came up with the hyper loop idea and everybody I worked with at the time thought it was revolutionary. These were very smart people who were fooled. In hindsight, how could we all have fell for this? What a profoundly stupid idea, but I distinctly remember at the time it felt right. I guess what I'm saying is that I think a lot of people just wised up and started seeing through his B.S.

I genuinely don't know how the mental model of such a person works where they look at Elon who got multiple world changing bets right but they focus on the ones that were wrong.

In general, people who focus on the many things he got wrong or lied about, will all at least admit that he got a few things right.

But the people who focus on his successes always seem to downplay, blame-shift and defend when it comes to his negative side. They'll never admit he was wrong about anything. It's the same worship / cult of personality that affects politics too.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I genuinely don't know how the mental model of such a person works where they look at Elon who got multiple world changing bets right but they focus on the ones that were wrong.

In general, people who focus on the many things he got wrong or lied about, will all at least admit that he got a few things right. But the people who focus on his successes always seem to downplay, blame-shift and defend when it comes to his negative side. They'll never admit he was wrong about anything. It's the same worship / cult of personality that affects politics too.

Name a person who say he was right about everything. I can name a person who say he was wrong about everything (my sibling comment)

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#426
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't generally reach that level of wealth and success without at least having strong sociopathic (maybe even psychopathic) tendencies.

that's a stretch: andreessen got wealthy because he worked for the UIUC group in a project which turned out super popular, super funded by Jim Clark, and got massive explosion in worth. there's no sociopathy involved from him back then. Musk made a company that jumpstarted some wealth and invested in other things which exploded. Toto Wolff is a gazillionaire because he too made some pretty incredibly timed investment…

You might get incredibly lucky and bexome a billionaire without being a sociopath.

There's no way to stay a billionaire without being one, as long as there's abject poverty and suffering.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tim Dillon said summarized it pretty well - can't remember or find the exact quote. Something to the effect of: "Look around at all these things I have - how could I be wrong when I have so much?" And that's how you get the Andreessen's and Musk's of the world stating these nonsensical things as truth. In their minds, financial success is the ultimate yardstick. The fact that they have so much wealth is a testament t…

> In their minds, financial success is the ultimate yardstick. In a loopy recursive way, it is. Cost gates what we can do and become. Paying back your costs to extend your runway is the working principle behind biology, economy and technology. I am not saying rich people are always right, just that cost is not so irrelevant to everything else. I personally think cost satisfaction explains multiple levels, from biolog…

> In a loopy recursive way, it is.

The primary issue with this is that there is a significant amount of luck involved in acquiring large sums of wealth.

It's hard to get firm numbers around this, but it's estimated around 30-40% of the wealthiest people in the world, derive their wealth almost entirely from inheritance. It's actually very difficult to measure this accurately because a lot of studies will report people as "self-made" even if they started with a small $10 million loan from their parents.

Wealth also follows power laws such that it's significantly easier to acquire more of it once you pass certain thresholds.

Take Mark Cuban - made billions selling some crappy radio service to Yahoo!. Has done effectively nothing since then except for re-investing the proceeds from the buyout. He's technically self-made but it's hard to argue he was anything other than lucky.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#428
post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN posters are famously overconfident, sure, but wealth is a bad measure of success. Putin is one of the richest people on earth, but responsible for extreme political repression and global instability. Pablo Escobar did very well financially. Financial success says how well you’ve extracted wealth from others, and approximately zero about your contributions to society. Einstein, Gandhi, Mandela, Martin Luther King J…

> wealth is a bad measure of[...]your contributions to society To be _abundantly_ clear, I agree with you and your assumptions here - but, please note that you are making some assumptions here about what "success" is defined as, which might explain why other people disagree.

Sure, but with that definition parent’s comment becomes “wealth is a good indicator of wealth”, which while true certainly isn’t useful.

I’m assuming they meant to imply wealth is a measure of positive social impact, which is a bad measure for the reasons I stated. They also might mean it as a proxy for “rightness”, whatever that is, which is even more of a problem but for different reasons.

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#429
post #161

This blog post and all the comments in response feel very tautological. I think Marc has a fairly simple point here, which is don't spend time dwelling on the past. Learn from the past, take away information about how things can be improved, but then make a plan (for whatever it is that you are building/doing) and move forward with that plan. In the podcast, he basically lays out that the A16Z thesis is that there is…

introspection and rumination are two different things

Re: Marc Andreessen is wrong about introspection

#430
post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tim Dillon said summarized it pretty well - can't remember or find the exact quote. Something to the effect of: "Look around at all these things I have - how could I be wrong when I have so much?" And that's how you get the Andreessen's and Musk's of the world stating these nonsensical things as truth. In their minds, financial success is the ultimate yardstick. The fact that they have so much wealth is a testament t…

You say financial success as though it is completely independent of pretty much everything. "How could I be wrong, look how handsome I am" To create great wealth in a vibrant capitalist society you have to have some model about the world you can exploit. It can be a better rocket design, some insight into human psychology that can help you raise money, or something else. Some people fall ass backwards into money thro…

> You say financial success as though it is completely independent of pretty much everything.

I never made a suggestion that financial success is completely independent of anything.

> They could be wrong on some things but to pretend they don't have a somewhat functional world model that is different enough from the consensus that it allows them to exploit it for great wealth is just naive.

It's naive to think that financial success sometimes blinds people into thinking they are generally an expert in all areas?

> but sure, random person commenting on the internet about how the wealthiest people in the world don't know anything about the world

Also, never said anything to this effect.

> why haven't you exploited your superior knowledge relative to said billionaire to amass great wealth for yourself?

How could you possibly know if I have, or have not?

Your entire reply is effectively an unrelated tangent to what I said.

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