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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#421

Post by ACCount37 »

01100011 wrote: post #364
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

What about solar shades? Seems like a relatively quick and easy way to regulate solar input. It's nice too because you can quickly remove it if necessary.

Only becomes viable if you have things like Starship online and fully operational, with launch rates at the level of Falcon 9 today. At the minimum.

Still a more viable option than bringing greenhouse gas emissions into the negatives globally, by the way. But that's a low bar. Nuking the ocean floor is probably a better call.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#422

Post by gzread »

ACCount37 wrote: post #401
energy123 wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The initial pain will be diffuse and not obviously caused by global warming. For example, destabilization of equatorial countries due to wet bulb temperatures, through multiple causal paths: worse education outcomes (many days off school during hot months), worse economy (can't work outside), worse life satisfaction -> more autocracies, more water scarcity. Then you get more emigration to the colder north, more confl…

That's the sum of climate change. "GDP growth of 3% instead of 5%." Severe enough to be noticeable, but not severe enough to warrant radical climate action. Not an extinction threat. A "slow trickle of economic damage, some amount of otherwise preventable death and suffering, diffused across the entire world, applied unevenly, and spread thin across many decades" threat. And stopping the GHG emissions demands radical…

And then when the GDP finally collapses, there will have been nothing that could be done about it for the last 50 years and they'll ask wtf we were doing in 2040, why we didn't stop it then.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#423

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

Shin-- wrote: post #325
tlogan wrote: post #266

The sad reality is that much of the climate work done in the West does not matter because China, India, and the rest of the world are not involved.

Hilarious take. China and India have historically emitted much less carbon than many western countries, per capita they emit less Co2, and a large part of emission is to produce for western countries, which have effectively outsourced their emissions to other (poorer) countries. At the same time, the US is the main force fighting against carbon neutrality, renewable energy and pretty much anything reasonable. By dire…

China has long surpassed most countries in per-capita emissions and is still on an upward trajectory. India is on an upward trajectory but still below the world average. The US and Canada are higher than China but on a downward trajectory. The EU is on a downward trajectory and below China.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#424

Post by MaxHoppersGhost »

bobson381 wrote: post #180
everdrive wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But don't worry, USA is solving the problem by Biden banning cheap electric cars and Trump ending electric subsidies entirely, forcing coal plants to restart People really think if they just buy the right products we'll solve this problem. People are really fundamentally unable to solve global warming issues. There are a few fundamental problems: - Broad, collective action is not possible in just any direction. Peop…

So I've been on a journey of discovering basically this - limits to growth - for the last few years. It's been .... an emotional roller coaster as someone living in the developed world. I'm following the work of Nate Hagens and others in the space, but The Dread still ebbs and flows. How do you hold this dispassionately? How do you get to a point of wanting to reproduce, or even wanting to continue, as an act of radi…

Throughout human history entire families, tribes, villages, and cities were on the edge of death, whether it was by disease, famine, or invaders. This is nothing new. Don't by into the people selling fear.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#426

Post by gzread »

ragall wrote: post #336
marcyb5st wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not sure how not directly linked to global warming. I am currently on the phone but I remember a study that mentioned that Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh would see a deadly heat (wet bulb temperatures) from basically 0 as it is right now to 30 days/year by 2050 or 2060. I can't remember right now. If that is not linkable to global warming I am not sure what is. And that is a huge event. In Europe we are struggl…

> What happens when 1.5B come knocking because if they stay they die? We sink the boats.

Indeed, no reason to expect anything will happen differently from what is currently happening, but on a 150x bigger scale.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#427

Post by tasty_freeze »

deepsun wrote: post #328
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

Re carbon capture -- we can cut trees and dump them in "carbon storage" places like the bottom of some water bodies where due to lack of oxygen no rotting happens, like peats and e.g. Black Sea. And grow new trees in their place of course.

Considering the scale that we are burning oil and gas, our sequestration efforts would have to be comparable. Continuing to burn oil and gas and trying to recapture it is madness, like realizing you are driving way too fast and instead of taking your foot off the gas, you keep flooring it but start applying the brakes.

If we could actually grow trees to capture carbon equivalent to 250M+ barrel of oil per day, it would be better to just grow trees and burn them for energy.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#428

Post by transcriptase »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #316
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

No offense, but internet opinions are a dime a dozen -- do you have some special experience / credentials in this area? The arguments you provide are all just the sort of thing that PhD students would study, and incorporate into their models. I'm inclined to believe the experts, but if you _are_ one, and are saying with authority that these effects are missed, that is a much more interesting story.

Would a PhD student incorporate something into their model that flipped their results from agreeing to disagreeing with the premise that has not only practically become a religion, but forms the foundation for more and more funding flowing into their field each year?

Would they really want to risk being basically excommunicated from their area of research for daring to provide ammo to “climate change deniers”?

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#429

Post by lazide »

adrianN wrote: post #402
deepsun wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re carbon capture -- we can cut trees and dump them in "carbon storage" places like the bottom of some water bodies where due to lack of oxygen no rotting happens, like peats and e.g. Black Sea. And grow new trees in their place of course.

It’s difficult to scale this to the levels we would need to make a difference.

The more likely candidate is mineral based, because yes trees are hard to scale this way.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#430

Post by gzread »

parineum wrote: post #372
morkalork wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't a drought originally part of the cause of Syria's collapse into civil war? Climate change is already causing unrest in equitorial countries, mass migration and a corresponding rise in authoritarianism / right wing populism in Europe.

You're making the "It's snowing there can't be global warming" argument in reverse. One local drought can't be attributed to or be proof of global warming. It's like smoking causing lung cancer; (the following numbers are made up) 5 in 100 non-smokers might get lung cancer but 20 in 100 smokers do. 5 of those smokers would have gotten lung cancer anyway and 15 wouldn't have but there's no way to know which individual…

Not necessarily. Climate change means there will be more droughts; and if droughts cause civil war, there will be more civil war (that's the GP's relevance); even if we can't tell which ones were caused by global warming, that's still bad.
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