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OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

techcrunch.com

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Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#421

Post by mixmastamyk »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #417
mixmastamyk wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contact me: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46867010 Note: I need work, not interviews. ;-)

I’m not an employer. But I’ve been intentionally unemployed for the last 18 months and have been lucky enough to pass on multiple jobs because they weren’t the right fit. I haven’t applied to anything. The networking is just really good here.

Not helpful, hand over some crumbs. I just interviewed with a cool company in San Jose. Despite the interview going quite well (unusually) last Friday they have not responded this entire week. Experience says forget about it.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#422

Post by janalsncm »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #325
7777777phil wrote: post #287

$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…

> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…

When models get cheaper to run for OpenAI, they also get cheaper for everyone else. It gets commoditized. AI might be able to do more, but most people aren’t going to pay for a thing they could get for free. See the many models on Huggingface as examples of that.

And as the number of things AI is “good enough” at increases, the list of things on the frontier that people will want to pay OpenAI for shrinks. Even if OpenAI can consistently churn out PhD level math, most companies don’t care about that.

So a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for the math to work out is that frontier tasks still exist and are profitable. This is why CEOs keep hyping up AGI. But what they really want is for developers to keep paying to get AI to center a div.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#423

Post by himata4113 »

aurareturn wrote: post #266
himata4113 wrote: post #243

Less than a decade ago companies reaching 1 trillion was still every much "out there". Now we have an IPO at almost 1 trillion. It's clear that the stock market cannot be considered normal anymore, held up on hopes at prayers at best.

Sure it can. The value of the dollar coincides with stock market valuations.

"UBS downgraded the US stock market" happened today for a reason and you're implying that the US dollar lost 1000% of it's value since less than a decade ago? 1/10th of what it is worth today?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#424

Post by 7thpower »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #325
7777777phil wrote: post #287

$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…

> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…

I love that you are already confident fitting a curve. I want some of that swagger in my life.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#425

Post by drivebyhooting »

hn_acc1 wrote: post #264
echelon wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

So you now have 400Kloc of Rust code? Doing what? How much of that is "new"? I can't get Augment / Opus 4.5 to edit a few C++ files from within VSCode without going off on a wild goose chase or getting stuck in an infinite loop after I tell that it should be doing this: "oh, you're right, I need to do X", "To do X, I must understand how to do Y", "I see now that to do Y, I should look at at Z". "Let me look at Z", fo…

To be fair, humans editing C++ also go on wild goose chases. Have you seen the insanity the C++ committee has ratified?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#426

Post by madeofpalk »

beernet wrote: post #327
bentt wrote: post #318

Someone please explain how OpenAI is not Netscape 2026. They had first mover advantage but no network effect, no moat, and are racing to stay ahead of infinitely resourced incumbents.

How are ~1B active users not "moat"? Might have to pull out the "Haters gonna hate" like it's 2007

A moat is something that can't be crossed. User count doesn't seem that insurmountable.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#428

Post by NickGarfinkel »

7thpower wrote: post #424
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…

I love that you are already confident fitting a curve. I want some of that swagger in my life.

I was thinking the same thing.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#429

Post by mixdup »

solumunus wrote: post #399
moron4hire wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We said all the same shit about VR, dude. Even had a global pandemic show up to boost everyone's interest in the key market of telepresence. Turns out the merry go round can stop abruptly.

Did we?! You and Mark Zuckerberg maybe.

"Am I nothing to you?" --Tim Cook
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