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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#421

Post by dwaite »

827a wrote: post #178
Fiveplus wrote: post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

I would also bet significant money that Apple's unique market position will give them the confidence to invest in in-house fabrication before 2030.

The R&D and equipment cost for fabrication continues to be closer to exponential growth - which is why so many players have gotten out of the game, why companies with fabs like Samsung and Intel still use TSMC for some parts, and why even Intel is now trying to justify the cost of new processes by becoming a contract fab.

I can certainly see Apple taking a large stake and board position in fabricators, but I can't see them being able to justify the ongoing investment in a closed fab.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#422

Post by high_na_euv »

girvo wrote: post #304
high_na_euv wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of today Intel is very around leading node

I'll believe it when I see it (at scale). I hope 18A is good enough as competition is good, and a weak Intel is bad for us all.

PTL is already released, on shelves in like 2 weeks.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#424

Post by K0balt »

lovich wrote: post #388
marcus_holmes wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had a couple of experiences like yours, yeah, it can be a matter of finding the right founder. I'm sorry you don't find it actionable. Please continue doing whatever you're doing now that is working for you.

>Please continue doing whatever you're doing now that is working for you Lol. It doesn't work out because I don't have leverage, and tried to stand up for what I believe in. I also don't believe it would work for you unless you had views that aligned with the current oligarchical leadership that the entire US industry is operating under. If you only have a good time when you found the "right" founder, because they wi…

What is odd to me is hearing people talk as if somehow a job is supposed to be intrinsically enjoyable or enriching. Paid labor is and always has been a subservient role that pays exactly the minimum that the market allows for the circumstances.

Labor is the next option above slavery and indenture, and now that slavery and indenture are frowned upon, labor has absorbed that space as well.

If you want to have some control of your environment and destiny, you must be an independent agent, a contractor, entrepreneur, or consultant. A tradesman. You have special skills and expertise, your own tools, and a portfolio of masterpieces at the least.

There is nothing new in this space of human endeavour, it is as it has been, and I suspect will continue to be, for better or for worse. Sacrificing your agency for subservience is going to make you feel at the mercy of your “betters”. If you don’t want that, don’t do that. Labor law and other conventions have made it a little better, but the fundamental relationship is still master and servant.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#425

Post by girvo »

high_na_euv wrote: post #422
girvo wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll believe it when I see it (at scale). I hope 18A is good enough as competition is good, and a weak Intel is bad for us all.

PTL is already released, on shelves in like 2 weeks.

Yes and it’s looking promising, but one mobile processor does not prove a nodes success at scale.

It definitely implies it though, I’m hopeful that competition is back.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#426

Post by LunaSea »

xnx wrote: post #63
JanSolo wrote: post #61

I'm surprised that Apple is not considering opening up its own fabs. Tim Cook is all about vertical-integration and they have a mountain of cash that they could use to fund the initial startup capex.

$20 billion for a new fab is a lot of money, even to Apple.

Apple has around $55B in cash, much more in stocks.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#427

Post by lovich »

K0balt wrote: post #424
lovich wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Please continue doing whatever you're doing now that is working for you Lol. It doesn't work out because I don't have leverage, and tried to stand up for what I believe in. I also don't believe it would work for you unless you had views that aligned with the current oligarchical leadership that the entire US industry is operating under. If you only have a good time when you found the "right" founder, because they wi…

What is odd to me is hearing people talk as if somehow a job is supposed to be intrinsically enjoyable or enriching. Paid labor is and always has been a subservient role that pays exactly the minimum that the market allows for the circumstances. Labor is the next option above slavery and indenture, and now that slavery and indenture are frowned upon, labor has absorbed that space as well. If you want to have some con…

> Labor is the next option above slavery and indenture, and now that slavery and indenture are frowned upon, labor has absorbed that space as well.

If we go down this path, what can I say that doesn’t get my account banned and my speech suppressed for what what I would suggest doing to people with your opinion?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#428

Post by Bombthecat »

sfn42 wrote: post #322
Bombthecat wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that we will hit diminishing returns in AI. We still find new ways to make them faster or cheaper or better or even train themselves... The flat line prediction is now 2 years old...

You say that, but to me they seem roughly the same as they've been for a good while. Wildly impressive technology, very useful, but also clearly and confidently incorrect a lot. Most of the improvement seems to have come from other avenues - search engine integration, image processing (still blows my mind every time I send a screenshot to a LLM and it gets it) and stuff like that. Sure maybe they do better in some be…

Deepseek, Nvidia and meta are pumping out one paper after another.

New and better things are coming. They will just take time to implement, and I doubt they cancel current training runs. So I guess it will take up to a year for the new things to come out

Can the bubble burst in this time, because people lose patience? Of course. But we are far from the end.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#429

Post by RavSS »

lovich wrote: post #338
to11mtm wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still more predictable than GPU buys in the current climate. Power connector melting aside, GPUs in most cases get replaced less frequently than cell phones, unless of course you have lots of capital/profit infusion to for whatever reason stay ahead of the game. Heck if Apple wanted to be super cheeky, they could probably still pivot on the reserved capacity to do something useful (e.x. revised older design for whate…

Yea, it’s anecdata, but I only replaced my 1080 ti about 1.5 years ago. Graphical fidelity is at the point that unless some new technology comes out to take advantage of GPUs, I don’t see myself ever upgrading the part. Only replacing it whenever it dies. And that 1080 ti isn’t dead either, I passed the rig onto someone who wanted to get into PC gaming and it’s still going strong. I mostly upgraded because I needed m…

I replaced my 1080 Ti recently too (early 2025). I had kept it as my daily GPU since 2017. It was still viable and not in urgent need of a replacement, even though my 1080 Ti is an AIO liquid cooled model from EVGA, so I'm surprised it hasn't leaked yet. It's been put through a lot of stress from overclocking too, and now it lives on inside a homelab server.

The 5090 I replaced it with has not been entirely worth it. Expensive GPUs for gaming have had more diminishing returns on improving the gaming experience than ever before, at least in my lifetime.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#430

Post by quitit »

ndr42 wrote: post #16

I dislike this dramatization in reporting of mundane facts. So report the facts but sentences like "What Wei probably didn’t tell Cook is that Apple may no longer be his largest client" make it personal, they make you take sides, feel sorry for somebody, feel schadenfreude... (as you can observe in the comments)

There may be an arrogance that we're not vulnerable to these tactics because the topics of conversation are science and tech focused, rather than celebrity culture.

However this post and the comments really debunk that - here we have a clear example of the author turning these people into characters, archetypes of reality tv, and inviting the reader to have an emotional response to what is potentially interesting, but actually just the mundane business matter of dealing with demand spikes.

A normal conversation might take a step back, above the emotional baiting, and instead lament on how TSMC weren't able to develop sufficient supply capacity in time to maximise yield across not just these clients, but many others whom are looking to get involved in the AI hype train. Instead we're seeing something quite different, and quite uninformed. It's reading like a gossip post from an instagram thread.

I notice that HN is actually more vulnerable to these types of conversations. Maybe it's because HN likely weights towards an ASD audience, which has less experience in handling socially driven narratives. I do definitely see here more of the "one-sided" conversation that is typical of ASD.

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