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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#421

Post by [deleted] »

oneeyedpigeon wrote: post #392
sethammons wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well. Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it fa…

> we are to leverage AI in everything we do Sounds like the extremely well-repeated mistake of treating everything like a nail because hammers are being hyped up this month.

[deleted]

Re: Is it a bubble?

#422

Post by Ekaros »

roenxi wrote: post #404
obruchez wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

I would expect sufficient "General Intelligence" to be able to correct itself in process. I hear way too often that you need to restart something to get it work. This to me doesn't sound sufficient yet for general intelligence. For that you should be able to leave it running all the time and learn and progress during run-time.

We have bunch of tools for specific tasks. This doesn't again sound like general.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#423

Post by ACCount37 »

charcircuit wrote: post #414
ACCount37 wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?

Visual reasoning models. Having a computer being able to understand what is happening in the real world is very useful.

Those are LLMs with an extra modality bolted to them.

Which is good - that it works this well speaks of the generality of autoregressive transformers, and the "reasoning over image data" progress with things like Qwen3-VL is very impressive. It's a good capability to have. But it's not a separate thing from the LLM breakthrough at all.

Even the more specialized real time robotics AIs often have a bag of transformers backed by an actual LLM.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#424

Post by superultra »

roenxi wrote: post #404
obruchez wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

I’d say that an increasingly more common strand is that the way LLMs work is so wildly different than how we humans operate that it is effectively an alien intelligence pretending to be human. We have never and still don’t fully understand why LLMs work the way they do.

I’m of the opinion that AGI is an anthropomorphizing of digital intelligence.

The irony is that as LLMs improve, they will both become better at “pretending” to be human, and even more alien in the way they work. This will become even more true once we allow LLMs to train themselves.

If that’s the case than I don’t think that human criteria is really applicable here except in an evaluation of how it relates to us. Perhaps your list is applicable in LLM’s relativity to humans but many think we need some new metrics for intelligence.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#425

Post by popoflojo »

edhelas wrote: post #402
thenaturalist wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

„Just XYZ more billion, bro, and then we’re gonna have AGI! For real bro, pleaseeee!“

Why can't you just prompt a way to AGI without spending all that money?

Honestly this is the best response. If the AI was actually so great, it could create better AI, and the future would already be here

Re: Is it a bubble?

#426

Post by gregoryl »

roenxi wrote: post #420
lynx97 wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are better at empathy Are you serious or sarcastic? Do you really consider this empty type of sycophancy as empathy?

Compared to the average human? Yes. Most people are distressingly bad at empathy to the point where just repeating what they just heard back to an interlocutor in a stressful situation could be considered an advanced technique. The average standard of empathy isn't that far away from someone who sees beatings as a legitimate form of communication. Humans suck at empathy, especially outside a tight in-group. But even…

Truly, you need to spend time with literally anyone other than the people you currently engage with.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#427

Post by popoflojo »

TheAceOfHearts wrote: post #419
sandworm101 wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One upon a time in SF i was told that human-driven cars would be illegal, or too expensive to insure, by the end of the decade. That was last decade. The modern tech economy is all about bubbles biult and sustained by hype people. Vertical farming. Pot replacing alcohol. Blockchains replacing lawyers. The metaverse replacing everything. Sure, we are in an AI bubble but we aslo ride atop a dozen others. AI data center…

I'm quite skeptical of the data centers in space claim, but I think a proof of concept can certainly be achieved in five years. I'm less convinced that we'll ever see widescale deployment of data center satellites. And to be fair, I've read that Google's timelines for this project extend far beyond a 5 year horizon. I think it's a rational research direction for them, since it gets people excited and historically man…

Do data centers on Earth have no employees present, and none who ever come on site for the life of the data center? Prove that out on earth and I will start to believe your space data center.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#428

Post by lynx97 »

roenxi wrote: post #420
lynx97 wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are better at empathy Are you serious or sarcastic? Do you really consider this empty type of sycophancy as empathy?

Compared to the average human? Yes. Most people are distressingly bad at empathy to the point where just repeating what they just heard back to an interlocutor in a stressful situation could be considered an advanced technique. The average standard of empathy isn't that far away from someone who sees beatings as a legitimate form of communication. Humans suck at empathy, especially outside a tight in-group. But even…

I am sorry for you. You must surround yourself with a lot of awful people. That is pretty sad to read. Get out of whatever you are stuck in, it can't be good for you.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#430

Post by exasperaited »

roenxi wrote: post #404
obruchez wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

> they are better at empathy and conversation than most.

Do you know actual people? Even literal sociopaths are a bit better at empathy than ChatGPT (I know because I have met a couple).

And as for conversation? Are you serious? ChatGPT does not converse in a meaningful sense at all.

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