421–430 of 531 posts
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> I follow over 100 podcasts How? Do you read summaries? Listen at 3x speed 5 hours a day?
Boredom at work like most people on HN
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This is an odd anecdote to ask "show your work." I don't catalog shows and episodes where any particular topic comes up, and I follow over 100 podcasts so I don't have a specific list you can fact check me on. Personally I could care less if that means you choose not to believe that I hear the Taiwan risk come up often enough.
Charitably, perhaps they're simply asking for podcasts that they would be interested in listening to that cover these topics. Personally, I would like to listen to a podcast that talks about semiconductor development, but I've done approximately zero research to find them so I'm not pressed for an answer :)
I keep seeing articles like this but does anyone actually think we're not in a bubble? From what I've seen these companies acknowledge it's a bubble and that they're overspending without a way to make the money back. They're doing it because they have the money and feel it's worth the risk in case it pays off. If they don't spend, another company does, and it hits big they will be left behind. This is at least insura…
The trouble with bubbles is that it's not enough to know you are in one. You don't know when it will pop, at what level, and how far back it will go.
I keep seeing articles like this but does anyone actually think we're not in a bubble? From what I've seen these companies acknowledge it's a bubble and that they're overspending without a way to make the money back. They're doing it because they have the money and feel it's worth the risk in case it pays off. If they don't spend, another company does, and it hits big they will be left behind. This is at least insura…
HN isn't always right. There was massive pushback against self driving and practically everyone was saying it would fail and is a bubble. The level of confidence people had about this opinion was through the roof. Like people who didn't know anything would say it with such utter confidence it would piss me off a bit. Like how do you know? Well they didn't and they were utterly wrong. Waymo showed it's not a bubble. A…
All great tech has gone through some kind of hype/bubble stage.
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Yes they'll be cheaper to run, but will they be cheaper buy as a service? Because sooner or later these companies will be expected to produce eye-watering ROI to justify the risk of these moonshot investments and they won't be doing that by selling at cost.
Will they be cheaper to buy? Yes. You are effectively just buying compute with AI. From a simple correlational extrapolation compute has only gotten more cheaper over time. Massively so actually. From a more reasoned causal extrapolation hardware companies historically compete to bring the price of compute down. For AI this is extremely aggressive I might add. HotChips 2024 and 2025 had so much AI coverage. Nvidia is…
What happens when investors start demanding their moonshot returns?
They didn't invest trillions to provide you with a service at break-even prices for the next 20 years. They'll want to 100x their investment, how do you think they're going to do that?
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he’s describing conditions that exist for every area in the world that actually experiences winter!
Most places clear the driving surface instead of leaving a foot of snow.
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Again, this is not an argument. I am asking: Why do we assume that we know better and people with far more knowledge and insight would all be wrong? This is not rhetorical question, I am not looking for a rhetorical answer. What is every important decision maker at all these companies missing? The point is not that they could not all be wrong, they absolutely could. The point is: Make a good argument. Being a general…
I think you have a point and I'm not sure I entirely disagree with you, so take this as lighthearted banter, but: Coming from the opposite angle, what makes you think these folks have a habit of being right? VCs are notoriously making lots of parallel bets hoping one pays off. Companies fail all the time, either completely (eg Yahoo! getting bought for peanuts down from their peak valuation), or at initiatives small…
Everything ends and companies are no exception. But thinking about the biggest threats is what people in managerial positions in companies do all day, every day. Let's also give some credit to meritocracy and assume that they got into those positions because they are not super bad at their jobs, on average.
So unless you are very specific about the shape of the threat and provide ideas and numbers beyond what is obvious (because those will have been considered), I think it's unlikely and therefor unreasonable to assume that a bystanders evaluation of the situation trumps the judgement of the people making these decisions for a living with all the additional resources and information at any given point.
Here's another way to look at this: Imagine a curious bystander were to judge decisions that you make at your job, while having only partial access to the information that you have to do the job, that you do every day for years. Will this person at some point be right, if we repeat this process often enough? Absolutely. But is it likely, on any single instance? I think not.
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This is another example of the phenomenon they’re describing, not a counterexample.
...The post I replied to specifically said "It [questioning people's self-evaluation of productivity] is only asked by LLM skeptics, about LLMs". Naming another example outside of LLM skeptics asking it, about LLMs, is inherently a counterexample.
I'm trying to pinpoint the canary in the financial coal mine here. There will be a time to pull out of the market and I really want to have an idea of when. I know, timing the market, but this isn't some small market correction we're talking about here.
now obviously, if you do time the market perfectly, that's the best. but it is far far more likely to shoot yourself in the foot by trying