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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#421

Post by boulos »

DocTomoe wrote: post #408
kragen wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Paris agreement was very important when renewable energy required state subsidies, but it is no longer necessary. Fossil-fuel power is no longer economically competitive without subsidies thanks to (largely Chinese) improvements in the costs of solar panels and the necessary power electronics. Over a few decades, solar-powered energy superabundance will reduce the costs of atmospheric carbon capture to the point…

Ironically, the Chinese seem to disagree, as they bring online new Coal-powered power plants every other week, with 94.5 GW of new capacity having started construction in the first half of 2024 and another 66.7 GW approved. And that's 'permanently available', not (p) = peak. "Solar is cheaper than fossil" does not look at the whole picture, it completely ignores that solar is not scalable quickly enough to meet risin…

To put it in perspective, China installed 277 GW of new solar capacity in 2024.

For coal, the "started construction" number there isn't the same metric as began operation. You want to look for "commissioned" and you get 30 GW. From https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/when-coal-wont-ste...

> Note: In 2024, 66.7 GW of new coal power capacity was permitted, a decline from previous years but still above the subdued pace seen earlier in the year. New and revived coal power proposals totaled 68.9 GW, down from 117 GW in 2023 and 146 GW in 2022, indicating a potential slowdown in project initiation. Meanwhile, construction started on 94.5 GW of new coal capacity — the highest since 2015 — suggesting continued momentum in project development. However, the pace of new coal plants entering operation has been more moderate, with 30.5 GW commissioned so far in 2024, down from 49.8 GW last year but in line with 2021 and 2022 levels.

China is well positioned to do solar + storage, but a lot of that coal is probably (a) for base load, (b) for steel production and (c) to keep the coal miners in business. From the same write up:

> In 2024, more than 75% of newly approved coal power capacity was backed by coal mining companies or energy groups with coal mining operations, artificially driving up coal demand even when market fundamentals do not justify it.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#422

Post by generic92034 »

ehnto wrote: post #364
platevoltage wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See this is what I don't understand. Everything you just said about China is a positive. Everything you said about China is achievable in the USA, and we at least HAD a head start on soft-power influence. Instead we should just have tariffs instead of actually making the lives of Americans better while FIGHTING affordable housing, high speed rail, and EVs. We've got an entire team of goons who would rather rack up pe…

I do think the state of progress in China is vastly underestimated by the west. It has been fast and messy, not evenly distributed, but it is staggering. The rhetoric around them is changing too, I think they are making significant soft power gains. I could easily see them filling the voids that US policy chaos is currently creating.

> The rhetoric around them is changing too, I think they are making significant soft power gains. I could easily see them filling the voids that US policy chaos is currently creating.

As long as they are cooperating with Russia at least European countries will have a hard time to accept China's advances.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#423

Post by enaaem »

bruce511 wrote: post #297
decimalenough wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The craziest thing about all this is that Chinese exports to the US aren't even that big a part of the Chinese economy (3% or so). Sure, it'll hurt and there's multiplier effects, but the entire rest of the world is more than happy to take up the slack. So the tariffs really are the US cutting its own nose off to spite its face.

You're assuming US citizens stop buying Chinese goods, just because they got more expensive. That's unlikely to be true. They might buy less, but the numbers won't fall to zero. It also overlooks the detail that the component parts of items "made in the usa" also come from other places. Clothing made in the US, doesn't necessarily use fabric made in the US. In the short to medium term, the increased cash-flow require…

Besides, I don't see how a $20 shirt becoming a $30 shirt is going to make a difference for American manufacturing. It's simply a sales tax (maybe even the greatest in the world). And on top of that you have all inputs for American manufactures getting more expensive.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#424

Post by wood_spirit »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #420
lm28469 wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the whole "benevolent" dictatorship VS flawed democracy debate.

It might be an authoritarian one party state but China isn't a dictatorship right?

Technically China is a dictatorship.

The constitution of the People's Republic of China and the CCP constitution state that its form of government is "people's democratic dictatorship".

The current president has done much to make his appointment for life, so it is a dictatorship that is on the road towards having a dictator.

Cue comparisons to what is currently happening in the US.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#425

Post by buyucu »

decimalenough wrote: post #163
haunter wrote: post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

The craziest thing about all this is that Chinese exports to the US aren't even that big a part of the Chinese economy (3% or so). Sure, it'll hurt and there's multiplier effects, but the entire rest of the world is more than happy to take up the slack. So the tariffs really are the US cutting its own nose off to spite its face.

If China stops exporting to the US, and instead exports to somewhere else, this will crash American living standards. It will lift the living standards of the new recipient.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#426

Post by buyucu »

AngryData wrote: post #346
haunter wrote: post #97

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever: China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries as…

Why does China's growth need to be curbed or opposed in any way? What does that accomplish? The only thing we need to be doing is ensuring our own stability, be decently self reliant, and improve the lives of our citizens. It is in inevitable fact that China will eventually surpass us economically, they have far more people, fighting that is just crabs in a bucket fighting over who gets to stand on top of the others.

Western Elites can not stomach a non-Western country prospering. It goes against everything they believe in.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#427

Post by AlecSchueler »

wood_spirit wrote: post #424
AlecSchueler wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might be an authoritarian one party state but China isn't a dictatorship right?

Technically China is a dictatorship. The constitution of the People's Republic of China and the CCP constitution state that its form of government is "people's democratic dictatorship". The current president has done much to make his appointment for life, so it is a dictatorship that is on the road towards having a dictator. Cue comparisons to what is currently happening in the US.

Yes, 人民民主专政.

A socialist state under the people's democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.

I think you're ignoring some of the poetic intention of those words, the idea is that the Marxist collective is the dictator. It's turning the concept on its head to put the people at the forefront.

In other contexts such as casual conversation here in the West the term dictatorship means something quite different and you seem to understand that too because you say they're "on the road towards having a dictator" which is surely an admission that they currently do not have a dictator and are ergo but currently a dictatorship.

I'll certainly grant you that Xi has made moves to consolidate power in the individual but that's a separate discussion.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#429

Post by hdgvhicv »

bongodongobob wrote: post #255
ronsor wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some places do 3 months! It's amazing

That was best practice until maybe 10 years ago. Point the people in charge of that to the NIST standards.

I hear cyber insurance companies (ransomware cover etc) still require outdated standards.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#430

Post by hdgvhicv »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #336
jameslk wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t the point of insurance to provide protection against black swan events? If it’s more likely to happen then it’s not really a black swan?

insurance is best for individually unlikely but societally likely items. otherwise pricing it is really hard.

Fire burns your house down, insurance is easy.

Asteroid hits New York, insurance won’t pay out.

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