Earlier quoted context omitted.
"put your money where your mouth is" is generally a good thing.
"Talking your book" is seen as a bad thing, especially when not properly disclosed.
That's probably why the old saw isn't just "put your money."
LLM Inevitabilism
421–430 of 1001 posts
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#422Earlier quoted context omitted.
As long as you view LLM as just a tool to do some mostly-mechanical changes to some codebase, you are missing the big picture which the article is about. What do LLMs mean for your mom? For society? For the future world view of your kids? Nobody cares about library refactoring.
A lot of people are missing this point. It's not about what it can do today. It's about what all you're promised it can do and then be sold to you like there's no alternative; and no one really knows if it will be able to do it or what all non-KPI functions are lost because AI is the only way ahead. Having used a customer service, I just happen to know that a smarter and a better chat-bot for a bog-standard service r…
There's an ISP in Australia that markets themselves as their call centre is in Australia, I imagine businesses will do the same with AI - we have real people you can talk to, the market will decide I suppose. Given the current state of AI, there's no way I'd deal with a company where I couldn't talk to a person.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#423If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is w…
While we can't wish it away we can shun it, educate people why it shouldn't be used, and sabotage efforts to included it in all parts of society.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#424In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…
> I’m not convinced that LLMs are the future. I’m certainly not convinced that they’re the future I want. But what I’m most certain of is that we have choices about what our future should look like, and how we choose to use machines to build it.
It seems to me that you’ve missed OP’s point. The internet was an indeed promising technology - that has been turned to mass surveillance, polarization, and had a not insignificant role in the rise of authoritarianism in the global north. Positive things have indeed come out of it too, like Wikipedia. Are we better off on balance? I’m not sure.
OP’s point, as I read it, is that we should choose our own future. LLMs indeed hold promise - your example of automatic program generation. But they also accelerate climate change and water scarcity, and are tools for mass surveillance and Kafkaesque algorithmic decision making - from Gaza to health insurance.
There seems to be a widespread notion - found for example in Sam Altman’s promotions - that equates technology with progress. But whether technology amounts to progress on balance - whether the good outweighs the bad - is up to us; it’s something we choose, collectively. When we treat something as inevitable, on the other hand, we give up our collective agency and hand it over to the most irresponsible and dangerous members of our society. That’s how we find ourselves suffering poisonous outcomes.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#425In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…
Compare these positive introductory experiences with two technologies that were pushed extremely hard by commercial interests in the past decade: crypto/web3 and VR/metaverse. Neither was ever able to offer this kind of instant usefulness. With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of…
The day I can put on a pair of AR glasses as lightweight as my current glasses and gain better vision, I'd pay a huge amount for that.
I hate my varifocals because of how constrained they make my vision feel...
And my vision is good enough that the only thing I struggle with without glasses is reading.
To me, that'd be a no-brainer killer app where all of the extra AR possibilities would be just icing.
Once you get something like enough and high resolution enough, you open up entirely different types of applications like that which will widen the appeal massively, and I think that is what will then sell other AR/VR capability. I'm not interested enough to buy AR glasses for the sake of AR alone, but if I could ditch my regular glasses (without looking like an idiot), then I'm pretty sure I'd gradually explore what other possibilities it'd add.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#426Earlier quoted context omitted.
Compare these positive introductory experiences with two technologies that were pushed extremely hard by commercial interests in the past decade: crypto/web3 and VR/metaverse. Neither was ever able to offer this kind of instant usefulness. With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of…
The question I have for your observation (which I think is correct btw) is: Do you think it's inherent to the technology that the use cases are not useful or is it our lack of imagination so far that we haven't come up with something useful yet?
Solutions in search for a problem just don’t tend to be very good solutions after all.
Maybe the answer isn’t that we’re too dumb/shallow/unimaginative to put it to use, but that the metaverse and web3 are just things that turned out to not work in the end?
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#427One of the negative consequences of the “modern secular age” is that many very intelligent, thoughtful people feel justified in brushing away millennia of philosophical and religious thought because they deem it outdated or no longer relevant. (The book A Secular Age is a great read on this, btw, I think I’ve recommended it here on HN at least half a dozen times.) And so a result of this is that they fail to notice t…
I think this is a case of bad pattern matching, to be frank. Two cosmetically similar things don't necessarily have a shared cause. When you see billions in investment to make something happen (AI) because of obvious incentives, it's very reasonable to see that as something that's likely to happen; something you might be foolish to bet against. This is qualitatively different from the kind of predestination present i…
Yes, nobody is claiming it's inevitable based on nothing, it's based on first principles thinking: economics, incentives, game theory, human psychology. Trying to recast this in terms of "predestination" gives me strong wordcel vibes.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#428Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hours of time saved, and you learned nothing in the process. You are slowly becoming a cog in the LLM process instead of an autonomous programmer. You are losing autonomy and depending more and more on external companies. And one day will come that, with all that power, they'll set whatever price or conditions they want. And you will accept. That's the future. And it's not inevitable.
Did you build the house you live in? Did you weave your own clothes or grow your own food? We all depend on systems others built. Determining when that trade-off is worthwhile and recognizing when convenience turns into dependence are crucial.
Did you write your own letters? Did you write your own arguments? Did you write your own code? I do, and don't depend on systems other built to do so. And losing the ability of keep doing so is a pretty big trade-off, in my opinion.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#429One of the negative consequences of the “modern secular age” is that many very intelligent, thoughtful people feel justified in brushing away millennia of philosophical and religious thought because they deem it outdated or no longer relevant. (The book A Secular Age is a great read on this, btw, I think I’ve recommended it here on HN at least half a dozen times.) And so a result of this is that they fail to notice t…
This is one of those types of comments to change one's whole world view. > The notion that history is just on some inevitable pre-planned path is not a new idea, except now the actor has changed from God to technology. I'm gonna fucking frame that. It goes hard
This entire conversation is a masterpiece!
Just picture this convo somewhere in nature, at night, by a fire.
Re: LLM Inevitabilism
#430I think two things can be true simultaneously: 1. LLMs are a new technology and it's hard to put the genie back in the bottle with that. It's difficult to imagine a future where they don't continue to exist in some form, with all the timesaving benefits and social issues that come with them. 2. Almost three years in, companies investing in LLMs have not yet discovered a business model that justifies the massive expen…
Exactly. This is basically the argument of “AI as Normal Technology”. https://knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-as-normal-technology https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43697717
Thanks for the link. The comparison to electricity is a good one, and this is a nice reflection on why it took time for electricity’s usefulness to show up in productivity stats:
> What eventually allowed gains to be realized was redesigning the entire layout of factories around the logic of production lines. In addition to changes to factory architecture, diffusion also required changes to workplace organization and process control, which could only be developed through experimentation across industries.