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GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

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Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#421

Post by eru »

FabHK wrote: post #413
eru wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by 'expected' loss? You don't mean the expected value in the statistical sense?

That's what I mean. Suppose you want to insure your home against fire, which could create damage of say $1m with probability 0.1%. Without insurance, you'd have to put aside savings of $1m (the maximum loss), that would remain untouched with 99.9% probability, and be used to cover the fire damage otherwise. With insurance, you'd pay the insurer $1m * 0.1% = $1000, plus a bit on top to cover their cost and profit. In…

Oh, that's what you mean. Yes, insurance is there to smooth out risks. And I agree that items you can self-insure, you probably should.

Similarly, I can't really understand insuring against expenditures that are certain. Eg insuring for the cost of routine pregnancy (as opposed to insuring for complications only). Or even worse: yearly allowances like 100 dollars flat for new glasses: just decrease my insurance premiums by that 100 dollars, please. (Unless it's a tax dodge, then it makes sense.)

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#424

Post by AbstractH24 »

chhxdjsj wrote: post #247
k__ wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much does it cost right now? Are there any alternatives coming out soon or generics?

Grey market from China is around $250/year for tirzepatide There are group chats with tens of thousands of people and I havent seen any issues with the drug

How do you ensure the safety and consistency of anything?

Asking for a friend.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#425

Post by hippich »

exabrial wrote: post #370
hiAndrewQuinn wrote: post #23

So... There's a miracle drug powerful enough to robustly lower people's all cause mortality, but since health insurance and life insurance are industries with vastly different time preferences, this is not a good thing for the life insurers because people just keep getting off the magic longevity drug and screwing up their predictions. Because, admittedly, it kind of sucks in the moment to be on. And I'm guessing jus…

I think this is pretty far off the cusp and seems like a bit of reddit logic "health insurance is scam, internet said so". Health insurance is one of the rare services where incentives between consumer and business are well aligned. The vast majority of people are healthy. Healthcare is expensive in the US because the uninsured population continues to rise out of "they're not making me pay for it": There are entire t…

I thought about it quite a bit and I came to conclusion that it is not 100% alignment between consumer and insurance, like it would appear on the surface. To me it seems insurance in the long term is interested in health services becoming more expensive (bigger pie they can manage), but steadily. I.e. it will affect insurance negatively if costs will suddenly increase by alot in a single year while premiums are locked in. But if it will keep inflating steadily and predictable - it only gives them a larger chunk of cash to manage and profit from. There are of course limits, so it needs to align with income inflation to avoid situation where their pie is shrinking because people/government simply can't afford it anymore.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#426

Post by AbstractH24 »

jtrn wrote: post #226
k__ wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much does it cost right now? Are there any alternatives coming out soon or generics?

For semaglutide, the newest and most potent GLP1. United States: The main patent is expected to expire around 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without insurance) Norway: The main patent is expected to expire around 2031. Monthly Price: $109 - $301 (cash price equivalent in USD)

> United States: The main patent is expected to expire around 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without insurance)

While 2032 seems very far away now, its actually remarkably soon in the grand scheme of society.

My understanding is one of their defendable moats is the patent not on the compound itself, but on the injectors. Which is far longer.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#427

Post by hippich »

glp1guide wrote: post #273
jtrn wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For semaglutide, the newest and most potent GLP1. United States: The main patent is expected to expire around 2032. Monthly Price: $950 - $1,350+ (cash price without insurance) Norway: The main patent is expected to expire around 2031. Monthly Price: $109 - $301 (cash price equivalent in USD)

> For semaglutide, the newest and most potent GLP1. Tirzepatide is the most potent GLP1 https://glp1.guide/content/semaglutide-vs-tirzepatide-clinic...

Can't find the post on Reddit right now, but someone broke all three down and it is more nuanced. They act slightly differently in different areas.

Before I started experiments on "my lab rat" with retatrutide, I found that combination of the about half max dose of semaglutide and 1/3 of Max dose of tirzepatide had the best combination of losing weight and lowering side effects. But another "lab rat" did not respond that well to this combo and we keep adjusting it.

Retatrutide so far looks the most compatible, but it is sample of 1.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#428

Post by oger »

kistaro wrote: post #283
aetherson wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's under-commented upon because it's counterintuitive, but most people stop taking it. Like, two year continuation of use is about 25%. That's kinda wild, because it seems like holy shit if you're taking a drug that lets you drop 10-20% of your body weight from obese down to normal why would you stop taking it, but people do.

Because it costs $1000/mo and insurance wants to make it as hard as possible to get that covered because they cannot afford to pay $1000/mo * 45% of Americans without doing things to their rates that are forbidden by the ACA and, for that matter, any approximation of good sense. If people cannot afford an additional $450/mo each on average for their health care, how do you cover a critical long-term $1000/mo drug tha…

Is that the cost in the U.S.??

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#429

Post by oger »

samus wrote: post #355
alvah wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GLP-1 isn’t new - the first trials were 20 years ago & there’s a lot of long term data from its use in diabetes management, prior to the weight loss application.

Ok, sure - but are diabetes patients representative of the whole target market for GLP-1? And there will still be an uncomfortable variable that controls the outcome - patient compliance. That's what makes life insurers woozy.

I didn't have look on the studies but I would not be surprised if a decent amount of participants were completely healthy individuals. And maybe (more from random sampling) some unsuspicious mildly overweight without other problems. Especially in the earlier cohorts of testing.

Re: GLP-1s are breaking life insurance

#430

Post by myko »

_cenw wrote: post #406
sroussey wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Be sure to pull back on the plunger and ensure there the needle is not in a blood vessel (pulling back will draw blood into the thing and you will see). You do not want the drug meant to subcutaneous to go into the blood steam. This is true for GPL-1s (all peptides for that matter), as well as insulin, and definitely mRNA vaccines.

Absolutely do not do this.

I understand if you have an autoinjector, you _can't_ do this, but this is how I was trained to give injections as an EMT-B (and paramedic training provided by the Army, as I was an Army medic).
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