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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#421

Post by aianus »

einpoklum wrote: post #247
CKMo wrote: post #185

There's definitely a big problem with entry-level jobs being replaced by AI. Why hire an intern or a recent college-grad when they lack both the expertise and experience to do what an AI could probably do? Sure, the AI might require handholding and prompting too, but the AI is either cheaper or actually "smarter" than the young person. In many cases, it's both. I work with some people who I believe have the capacity…

> Why hire an intern or a recent college-grad when they lack both the expertise and experience to do what an AI could probably do? 1. Because, generally, they don't. 2. Because an LLM is not a person, it's a chatbot. 3. "Hire an intern" is that US thing when people work without getting real wages, right? Grrr :-(

Interns make $75k+ in tech in the US. It's definitely not unpaid. In fact my school would not give course credit for internships if they were unpaid.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#422

Post by tdeck »

CMCDragonkai wrote: post #420
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

It's cause there are still bottlenecks. AI is definitely boosting productivity in specific areas, but the total system output is bottlenecked. I think we will see these bottlenecks get rerouted or refactored in the coming years.

What do you think the main bottlenecks are right now?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#423

Post by gcanyon »

causal wrote: post #363
gcanyon wrote: post #347

...everyone here saying "someday AI will but not today" while failing to acknowledge that for a lot of things "someday" is 2026, and for an even larger number of things it's 2027, and we can't even predict whether or not in 2028 AI will handle nearly all things...

The problem is that it's hard to pin down any job that's been eliminated by AI even after years of having LLMs. I'm sure it will happen. It just seems like the trajectory of intelligence defies any simple formula.

There's definitely an element of what we saw in the '90s -- software didn't always make people faster, it made the quality of their output better (wysiwyg page layout, better database tools/validation, spell check in email, etc. etc.).

But we're going to get to a point where "the quality goes up" means the quality exceeds what I can do in a reasonable time frame, and then what I can do in any time frame...

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#424

Post by esperent »

CMCDragonkai wrote: post #420
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

It's cause there are still bottlenecks. AI is definitely boosting productivity in specific areas, but the total system output is bottlenecked. I think we will see these bottlenecks get rerouted or refactored in the coming years.

> It's cause there are still bottlenecks

How do you know this? What are the bottlenecks?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#425

Post by AznHisoka »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

“we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in innovative products and improvements to existing products.”

Shipping features faster != innovation or improvements to existing products

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#426

Post by ccorcos »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

AI tools seem to be most useful for little things. Fixing a little bug, making a little change. But those things aren’t always very visible or really move the needle.

It may help you build a real product feature quicker, but AI is not necessarily doing the research and product design which is probably the bottleneck for seeing real impact.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#427

Post by wcfrobert »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

If AI makes everyone 10x engineers, you can 2x the productive output while reducing headcount by 5x.

Luckily software companies are not ball bearings factories.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#428

Post by ccorcos »

tw04 wrote: post #417
snowwrestler wrote: post #400

Historically, people have been pretty good at predicting the effects of new technologies on existing jobs. But quite bad at predicting the new jobs / careers / industries that are eventually created with those technologies. This is why free market economies create more wealth over time than centrally planned economies: the free market allows more people to try seemingly crazy ideas, and is faster to recognize good id…

But also it potentially means mass unemployment and we have literally no plan in place if that happens beyond complete societal collapse. Even if you think all the naysayers are “luddites”, do you really think it’s a great idea to have no backup plan beyond “whupps we all die or just go back to the Stone Age”?

> do you really think it’s a great idea to have no backup plan

What makes you think people haven’t made back up plans?

Or are you saying government needs to do it for us?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#429

Post by absurdo »

ben_w wrote: post #25
darth_avocado wrote: post #8

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

Game theory/Nash equilibrium/Prisoner's Dilemma, and the turkey's perspective in the problem of induction. So far, for any given automation, each actor gets to cut their own costs to their benefit — and if they do this smarter than anyone else, they win the market for a bit. Every day the turkey lives, they get a bit more evidence the farmer is an endless source of free food that only wants the best for them. It's ea…

Basically if anyone has an iota of sensibility you should have never taken sama, Zuckerberg, Gates, or anyone else of that sort at face value. When they tell you they’re doing things for the good of humanity, look at what the other hand is up to.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#430

Post by bjt12345 »

tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

The problem seems to be two-fold.

Firstly, the capex is currently too high for all but the few.

This is a rather obvious statement, sure. But the impact is a lot of companies "have tried language models and they didn't work", and the capex is laughable.

Secondly, there's a corporate paralysis over AI.

I received a panicky policy statement written in legalaise forbidding employees from using LLMs in any form. Written both out of a panic regarding intellectual property leaking but also a panic about how to manage and control staff moving forward.

I think a lot of corporates still clutch at this view that AI will push the workforce costs down and are secretly wasting a lot money failing at this.

The waste is extraordinary, but it's other peoples money (it's actually the shareholders money) and it's seen as being all for a good cause and not something to discuss after it's gone. I can never get it discussed.

Meanwhile, at a grass roots level, I see AI is being embraced and is improving productivity, every second IT worker is using it, it's just that because of this corporate panicking and mismanagement, it's value is not yet measured.

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