Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#421

Post by ekianjo » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:53 AM UTC

Jtsummers wrote: post #385

ekianjo wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> was all recoverable The debt was never recoverable

Well, I disagree but the current policies guarantee it's not recoverable so a debate would mostly be around hypotheticals. We're reducing revenue but not spending (or not enough to offset the reduction in revenue so the deficit will rise), so the debt will only continue to rise at an increasing rate. Ironically, Trump has the record for the highest deficit ever in US history. He's on track to beat it though and with…

> Ironically, Trump has the record for the highest deficit ever in US history.

hardly relevant comment since all presidents left and right have been pushing the button to increase deficits (and congress is completely responsible as well for not trying to balance the budget) so this is a systemic problem that will bring the downfall of America no matter what. It's just a matter of time, and with that level of debt, the time bomb keeps ticking faster and faster.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#422

Post by newAccount2025 » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:53 AM UTC

vitaflo wrote: post #404

paxys wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The next president is going to be Trump. If people don't think that's at least a serious possibity they are extremely deluded about the situation the country is in right now.

The constitution says you’re wrong. And the justices he appointed would uphold the constitution if he tried it.

Sure, on paper, but who will enforce it? He’s already attempted a coup. He has 4 years to prepare for the retry. He’s already putting loyalists into law enforcement and military spots. He’s immune to all lawsuits and has the congress cowed.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by victor106 » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:54 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #343

creato wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't these kinds of services already largely banned in China?

Yes, and that’s always mysteriously forgotten in these conversations. Historically, China stole US IP and software, like Windows, en masse. Now they refuse to import our main export product — software — while we import their physical products and software like TikTok. If we were allowed to export our services to China in exchange, this would be a very different geopolitical moment.

I agree, even though I don’t agree with how these tarrifs were implemented I don’t have any sympathy for China. President Trump is absolutely right when he says China took full advantage of the US policies.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by card_zero » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:54 AM UTC

Centigonal wrote: post #418

card_zero wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ten times? More like two times: US population is around 340 000 000, 770 000 homeless. UK population is around 68 000 000, 354 000 homeless. (Possibly calculated more inclusively.) That's 0.23 % and 0.52 %. (Numbers from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_United_Sta... and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_United_Kin... or more specifically from a govt department and a homelessness char…

Hey, so I was wrong in saying the UK has 10x the homelessness rate of the US. I used a stat from the video that "approximately one in fifty Londoners are now homeless." That's London, not the UK. Thanks for catching that -- I will update my post. But also, uh, you're wrong too! Your numerator for the UK figure is actually an estimate for homeless people in England, while your denominator includes the whole UK.

Fair enough. (England's population is 57 million, so that's 0.62 % in England.)

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by fulladder » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:54 AM UTC

jmye wrote: post #410

fulladder wrote: post #5

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

> My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Yeah, seemed like the IPOs were really getting going again, but I think that likely dries right up, too. Unless you figured out how to materialize rare earths out of thin air, or spin up an automated factory in six months, it’s hard to imagine anyone will be looking to give you money.

It's already happening. Klarna canceled their IPO. So did StubHub. I think it's a safe bet that all planned IPOs have been canceled for the time being.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by walterbell » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:55 AM UTC

Majromax wrote: post #372

sebmellen wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

> Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric political system I think you're begging the question here that a chimeric political system can craft an effective, long-term tariff policy if it can't craft a long-term industrial policy. In both cases, the operative phrase is long-term . IF they're to be effective, either set of policies needs to look a decade ahead, and an industrial policy still win…

The Miran paper envisions long-term investment in US industry, e.g. see recent TSMC-Intel partnership and $100B investment in US manufacturing, brokered by the current administration.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by gitremote » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:55 AM UTC

tstrimple wrote: post #211

paxys wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About a quarter of America (whose vote collectively counts for >50%) will happily suffer if it means that people they don't like suffer slightly more.

Reminds me of this: https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/jonathan-m-metzl-dying... > Even on death’s doorstep, Trevor was not angry. In fact, he staunchly supported the stance promoted by his elected officials. “Ain’t no way I would ever support Obamacare or sign up for it,” he told me. “I would rather die.” When I asked him why he felt this way even as he faced severe illness, he explained: “We don’t need any more…

This is likely why Elon Musk--who in 1989 emigrated from Apartheid South Africa at the cusp of Apartheid ending in 1991--is convinced there is widespread fraud in social security benefits. He never culturally integrated with a post-Apartheid South Africa. He comes from a legacy white supremacist culture that sees non-white citizens getting social benefits as ripping off white citizens.

If anyone thinks a claim that Musk is a literal white supremacist is biased, remember that he did two Nazi salutes at the president's inauguration and endorsed Germany's AfD party.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by getnormality » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:57 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #288

zip1234 wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not even sure that it is to the detriment of our domestic laborers. It certainly makes domestic manufacturing less competitive, especially the lowest skill/barrier to entry manufacturing. However, the US manufactures a LOT still, there are loads of reasonably well paying jobs for lower skill worker. I will say that housing and healthcare costs are high in the US but those are not things that are imported.

It also depends on what you think people want. Do they want a vast array of cheap consumer goods and entertainment, or do they want more affordable basics, like housing, cars, and healthcare? If you go by PPP alone, the US is already in second place [0]. PPP is a horrible metric, but I’m not sure GDP per capita is any better. [0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PP...

More competitive US manufacturing wouldn't lead to more affordable basics, would it?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Post by vkou » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:57 AM UTC

sebmellen wrote: post #396

vkou wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we were allowed to export our services to China in exchange, this would be a very different geopolitical moment. No, it wouldn't, just look at how Canada's being treated. The mothership would just broadcast different excuses.

What would it take for Canada to hit 2%? https://globalnews.ca/news/11050336/canada-defence-spending-... The US massively subsidizes Canada’s national defense and energy production (crude oil refining).

Thank you for providing me a front-row example of it. There's always one bullshit excuse or another.

In reality, the US suppresses Canada's national defense, because for some weird reason, it doesn't want a heavily-armed neighbor.

As for energy, for every dollar of it that it buys, it derives far more than a dollar of economic utility from it, which is why it's screaming bloody murder at the mere mention of Canada turning off, or adding surcharges at the tap.

All this is why in 2025, one would have to be an utter fool to expect America to keep faith.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#430

Post by Gregaros » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:57 AM UTC

OJFord wrote: post #330

losvedir wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you pretty young? The narrative when it was happening was pretty catastrophic. I remember reading about people not being able to get prescriptions, for example, because no one knew how imports worked. I don't know how things panned out, but the discussions in the early days around Brexit were absolutely on par or even worse than what we're seeing in these two days of discussions around tariffs.

I don't know what 'pretty young' is, apart from condescending, but I voted in it, so I remember as well as you do I imagine. Regardless of contemporaneous comparisons, the up-thread comment I initially replied to suggested there was some ongoing worse 'crisis' in the UK than the current situation in the US, if they meant to refer to Brexit it was not clear at all, regardless of whether anyone things that's an ongoing…

Sorry, the implication is that this is far worse than Brexit, but that this is the US’s Global Exit, riffing off the strong negative connotations in te US. I saw it from on Bluesky, but that linked here https://theradicalfederalist.substack.com/p/the-neoreactiona... - so, being framed as much worse than Brexit.