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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#421

Post by jollyllama »

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

In my country (USA) it was very common for people to build their own houses less than 80 years ago. Also, it was very common for people to fix everything on their own cars. I would argue that this has only changed because of extractive capitalism. The fact that you're saying these things as though they are ridiculous is indicative of a mindset shift that occurred some time in the not-so-distant past, and many of your assumptions do not have to be taken as a given.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#422

Post by mr_toad »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #172
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

There are two main reasons that individuals don't build their own houses and cars from scratch. 1) They don't know how. Specialization is a thing. But this is a thing that applies to individuals rather than nations. You don't need every person to know how to mine ore or hang drywall as long as somebody does. But a country the size of the US could certainly contain someone who knows how to do any given thing. 2) They…

> But this is again something that applies to individuals rather than countries.

It applies to countries too. It’s the core argument of comparative advantage, and it’s been mainstream economic theory for over 200 years. Your argument is incomplete because you’re not considering the wages paid in other countries, and crucially, the exchange rate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#423

Post by forgetfreeman »

WalterBright wrote: post #367
forgetfreeman wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There was no "transfer" of wealth from the poor people to the wealthy (there couldn't have been, because they, being poor, didn't have wealth)." You're ignoring value created through labor. The poor may not have wealth but they have their labor to sell on the open market. The returns on that exchange have been steadily declining since the post-war period thanks to flat wages and inflation. Meanwhile increases in pro…

> have to go somewhere. Consider the vast increase in government spending and entitlements. As for the declines, the US free market has steadily become less and less free market.

Taxes as a % of GDP have been relatively flat over the last 60 years, and on average have been lower over the last 25 years so claiming the government or "entitlements" are the culprit doesn't scan.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/tax-reve...

Claims that the market has become less free are perfectly baseless and a non sequitur here as even if that claim was true and verifiable it does nothing to explain the decline of the middle class or why increases in GDP aren't reflected in either household buying power or real wages.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#424

Post by Vilian »

watwut wrote: post #349
tharne wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know that the prior situation was sustainable and would have lasted much longer anyway. Using China for manufacturing is like using Amazon for sales. You are required to give them everything they need to take your business away. If if comes to pass that the 21st century is a Chinese one, it will be this long con that launched the whole thing: "We'll manufacture anything you want real cheap, just show us how…

No, the biggest self own is going on now. Even if you plan to bring manufacturing back, it was possible without shooting yourself into own foot.

And without making the rest of the world pissed

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#425

Post by bitmasher9 »

DeathArrow wrote: post #418
bitmasher9 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is really effective at increasing the amount of gold in your vault, but The Wealth of Nations (Admin Smith) made a strong case against that primary goal. Crucially for the HackerNews crowd, Mercantilism increases the value of physical goods relative to services, and services becomes a smaller portion of the overall economy. Most of us sell server-time wrapped in software that performs a service…

>Most of us sell server-time wrapped in software that performs a service… Most of us value goods more than services. We need food, we need shelter, we need a vehicle.

In general I value service more than (manufactured) goods. Goods are mass manufactured, with millions of exact copies made. There is no scarcity to goods.

I’d rather have a great doctor, lawyer, or accountant when I need one than a great car.

Having an average car is always just fine, having an average lawyer might not cut it.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#426

Post by Vilian »

pjc50 wrote: post #78
NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been coasting on advances made many decades ago. Most developed, sure. Successful? By nearly any metric you can imagine or make up. Strongest? Our economy is eaten hollow by termites. A stiff wind would make it crumble. Worse, there doesn't appear to be any path to true recovery... we can't create the jobs that people need to prosper, but if we could somehow do that we no longer create the people who would grow…

> Do we build boats or planes or cars? Do we make computer chips or garments or appliances? I mean .. obviously yes? It's just that you don't make all the chips and cars on the planet . Or even all the locally used ones. The US is mostly an astonishingly wealthy country that has somehow convinced itself that it's in the middle of a decline, while simultaneously avoiding facing up to any of the QoL questions which peo…

It's actually declining tho, it can't out grow it own debt, maybe spending less in military could fix that, doubt they gonna do it

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#427

Post by Vilian »

didericis wrote: post #81
nemomarx wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well why would you want to blow up international trade to begin with?

Because a rising power (China) backed a country (Russia) which didn’t bow to the dominant power (USA) that enables international trade, and intentionally blowing up international trade agreements now allows the USA more time to rebuild strategic supply chains to counter further violations of the international order. If the USA doesn’t have a secure industrial base and can’t reliably enforce the international order th…

Trump didn't tariff Russia tho

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#428

Post by freeone3000 »

oceanplexian wrote: post #347
pizzly wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its definitely de-globalizing USA's trade but I don't think it will de-globalize the rest of the world's trade. One method for countries to combat US's tariffs is to reduce trade barriers between themselves thus reducing the barriers to sell their goods to other countries instead of US. EU and China just had an initial conversation regarding just this.

I don’t see that happening since the US has historically been the least protectionist of nations. The EU loves protectionism. The single market is totally dysfunctional with a recent study saying it was equivalent to a 45% tariff between member states for manufacturing, a 110% for services. If this is the cohort you expect to save the world economy with free trade I certainly wouldn’t be betting real money on it.

> I don’t see that happening since the US has historically been the least protectionist of nations.

I would advise you to look the current US foreign trade policy in this instance. Compared to 104% tariffs, EU policy looks positively welcoming.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#429

Post by ty6853 »

Vilian wrote: post #424
watwut wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the biggest self own is going on now. Even if you plan to bring manufacturing back, it was possible without shooting yourself into own foot.

And without making the rest of the world pissed

Even though I 100% agree with you, the one piece of merit here is that the world is pissed shows that they recognize they lost something. They would not care if we were merely shooting ourselves.

Now if they are pissed and totally lost trust then we are totally fucked. But if they are pissed and willing to negotiate then maybe something can be salvaged out of this. It would be nice to have 20th century hong kong esque zero duty free trade between the US, EU, Mercosur, Canada, and all the other friendly nations as a result of us all learning how dumb this is. But I won't hold my breath.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#430

Post by Teever »

rtkwe wrote: post #301
Teever wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My comment was regarding the manufacturing of the aluminum cases of Apple products, not the manufacturing of the entire device.

The cases are probably the easiest parts to potentially remake in America, that's mostly machining that can be automated pretty easily we know how to run CNC in the US still, but it's only a tiny part of the picture. What about the rest of the phone in particular assembly? the massive chip and display manufacturing?

I'm talking about cases be cause this is a these about 'the decline of the U.S. Machine Tool industry...'
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