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AI 2027

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421–430 of 641 posts

Re: AI 2027

#421

Though I think it is probably mostly science-fiction, this is one of the more chillingly thorough descriptions of potential AGI takeoff scenarios that I've seen. I think part of the problem is that the world you get if you go with the "Slowdown"/somewhat more aligned world is still pretty rough for humans: What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? I hope we're wr…

> What's the point of our existence if we have no way to meaningfully contribute to our own world? You may find this to be insightful: https://meltingasphalt.com/a-nihilists-guide-to-meaning/ In short, "meaning" is a contextual perception, not a discrete quality, though the author suggests it can be quantified based on the number of contextual connections to other things with meaning. The more densely connected somet…

People talk about meaning, but they rarely define it.

Ultimately, "meaning" is a matter of "purpose", and purpose is a matter of having an end, or telos. The end of a thing is dependent on the nature of a thing. Thus, the telos of an oak tree is different from the telos of a squirrel which is different from that of a human being. The telos or end of a thing is a marker of the thing's fulfillment or actualization as the kind of thing it is. A thing's potentiality is structured and ordered toward its end. Actualization of that potential is good, the frustration of actualization is not.

As human beings, what is most essential to us is that we are rational and social animals. This is why we are miserable when we live lives that are contrary to reason, and why we need others to develop as human beings. The human drama, the human condition, is, in fact, our failure to live rationally, living beneath the dignity of a rational agent, and very often with knowledge of and assent to our irrational deeds. That is, in fact, the very definition of sin: to choose to act in a way one knows one should not. Mistakes aren't sins, even if they are per se evil, because to sin is to knowingly do what you should not (though a refusal to recognize a mistake or to pay for a recognized mistake would constitute a sin). This is why premeditated crimes are far worse than crimes of passion; the first entails a greater knowledge of what one is doing, while someone acting out of intemperance, while still intemperate and thus afflicted with vice, was acting out of impulse rather fully conscious intent.

So telos provides the objective ground for the "meaning" of acts. And as you may have noticed, implicitly, it provides the objective basis for morality. To be is synonymous with good, and actualization of potential means to be more fully.

Re: AI 2027

#422

Nice brain storming. I think the name of the Chinese company should be DeepBaba. Tencent is not competitive at LLM scene for now.

Don't really know why this comment got downvoted. Are you serious?

Re: AI 2027

#423
post #404

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

> The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corporations”, and voila, you have a story about the climate crisis and regulatory capture). Can you point to the data that suggests these evil corporations are ruining the planet? Carbon emissions are down in every western country since 1990s. Not down per-capita, but down in abs…

Thanks for letting us know everything is fine, just in case we get confused and think the opposite.

Re: AI 2027

#424
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Politicians won't tax gas because they'll get voted out. Have you seen gas tax rates in the EU? > We know that Trump is not captured by corporations because his trade policies are terrible. Unless you think it's a long con for some rich people to be able to time the market by getting him to crash it. > The EU is saying the elections in Romania was manipulated through manipulation of TikTok accounts and media. More…

Romainan courts say all kinds of things, many of them patently false. It's absurd to claim that since romanian courts say something, it must be true. It's absurd in principle, because there's nothing in the concept of a court that makes it infallible, and it's absurd in this precise case, because we are corrupt as hell. I'm pretty sure the election was manipulated, but the court only said so because it benefits the i…

> I'm pretty sure the election was manipulated, but the court only said so because it benefits the incumbents, which control the courts and would lose their power.

Why do you think that's the only reason the court said so? The election law was pretty blatantly violated (he declared campaign funding of 0, yet tons of ads were bought for him and influencers paid to advertise him).

Re: AI 2027

#425

Why are the biggest AI predictions always made by people who aren't deep in the tech side of it? Or actually trying to use the models day-to-day...

Daniel Kokotajlo released the (excellent) 2021 forecast. He was then hired by OpenAI, and not at liberty to speak freely, until he quit in 2024. He's part of the team making this forecast. The others include: Eli Lifland, a superforecaster who is ranked first on RAND’s Forecasting initiative. You can read more about him and his forecasting team here. He cofounded and advises AI Digest and co-created TextAttack, an ad…

Scott Alexander, for what its worth, is a psychiatrist, race science enthusiast, and blogger whose closest connection to software development is Bay Area house parties and a failed startup called MetaMed (2012-2015) https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/MetaMed

Re: AI 2027

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This story isn’t really about agents browsing the web. It’s a fiction about a company that consumes all of the web and all other written material into a model that doesn’t need to browse the web. The agents in this story supersede the web. But your point hits on one of the first cracks to show in this story: We already have companies consuming much of the web and training models on all of our books, but the reports t…

That’s exactly why it doesn’t make sense. Where would a datacenter-bound AI get more data about the world exactly? The story is actually quite poorly written, with weird stuff about “oh yeah btw we fixed hallucinations” showing up off-handedly halfway through. And another example of that is the bit where they throw in that one generation is producing scads of synthetic training data for the next gen system. Okay, but…

How will this thing which is connected to the Internet ... get data?

Re: AI 2027

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal? This forum has been so behind for too long. Sama has been saying this a decade now: “Development of Superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity” 2015 https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 Hinton, Ilya, Dario Amodei,…

> Will people finally wake up that the AGI X-Risk people have been right and we’re rapidly approaching a really fucking big deal? OK, say I totally believe this. What, pray tell, are we supposed to do about it? Don't you at least see the irony of quoting Sama's dire warnings about the development of AI, without at least mentioning that he is at the absolute forefront of the push to build this technology that can dest…

I love this pattern, the oldest pattern.

There is nothing happening!

The thing that is happening is not important!

The thing that is happening is important, but it's too late to do anything about it!

Well, maybe if you had done something when we first started warning about this...

See also: Covid/Climate/Bird Flu/the news.

Re: AI 2027

#428
post #366

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

> even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. I agree that it's good science fiction, but this is still taking it too seriously. All of these "projections" are generalizing from fictional evidence - to borrow a term that's popular in communities that push these ideas. Long before we had deep learning there were people l…

>All of these "projections" are generalizing from fictional evidence - to borrow a term that's popular in communities that push these ideas.

This just isn't correct. Daniel and others on the team are experienced world class forecasters. Daniel wrote another version of this in 2021 predicting the AI world in 2026 and was astonishingly accurate. This deserves credence.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-...

>he arguments back then went something like this: "Machines will be able to simulate brains at higher and higher fidelity.

Complete misunderstanding of the underlying ideas. Just in not even wrong territory.

>We got some new, genuinely useful tools over the last few years, but this narrative that AGI is just around the corner needs to die. It is science fiction and leads people to make bad decisions based on fictional evidence.

You are likely dangerously wrong. The AI field is near universal in predicting AGI timelines under 50 years. With many under 10. This is an extremely difficult problem to deal with and ignoring it because you think it's equivalent to overpopulation on mars is incredibly foolish.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...

https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predicti...

Re: AI 2027

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Political organization to force a stop to ongoing research? Protest outside OAI HQ? There are lots of thing we could, and many of us would , do if more people were actually convinced their life were in danger.

> Political organization to force a stop to ongoing research? Protest outside OAI HQ? Come on, be real. Do you honestly think that would make a lick of difference? Maybe , at best, delay things by a couple months. But this is a worldwide phenomenon, and humans have shown time and time again that they are not able to self organize globally. How successful do you think that political organization is going to be in slow…

We're all gonna die but come on, who wants to stop that!

Re: AI 2027

#430
post #286

It’s good science fiction, I’ll give it that. I think getting lost in the weeds over technicalities ignores the crux of the narrative: even if this doesn’t lead to AGI, at the very least it’s likely the final “warning shot” we’ll get before it’s suddenly and irreversibly here. The problems it raises - alignment, geopolitics, lack of societal safeguards - are all real, and happening now (just replace “AGI” with “corpo…

No one's gonna solve anything. "Our" world is based on greedy morons concentrating power through hands of just morons who are happy to hit you with a stick. This system doesn't think about what "we" should or allowed to do, and no one's here is at the reasonable side of it either. lest we run the very real risk of societal collapse or species extinction Our part is here. To be replaced with machines if this AI thing…

Don't think it's correct to blame the fact that AI acceleration is the only viable self-protecting policy on "greedy morons".
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