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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#421

Jan Leike has said he's leaving too https://twitter.com/janleike/status/1790603862132596961

There goes the so called superalignment: Ilya Jan Leike William Saunders Leopold Aschenbrenner All gone

Resignations lead to more resignations....unless mgmt. can get on top of it and remedy it quickly, which rarely happens. I've seen it happen way too many times working 25 years in tech.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#422
post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it consensus that AGI will never arise from LLMs?

No... A good number of folks will even go so far as to say that "all we do" is token prediction too. It's worth noting -- OpenAI founder Elon Musk claims in a lawsuit that the company has achieved AGI. Make of that what you will, but certainly there are many people on this site who believe in the general potential of LLMs.

Elon also claims that Tesla has solved full self driving, has announced robotaxis, while the SEC is investigating him for "inappropriate forward-looking statements".

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#423
post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't it consensus that AGI will never arise from LLMs?

Just based on current energy usage never going to happen. You just have to ask them to show you their energy bills alongside their demos.

A plane takes a LOT more energy than a bird, yet both fly, one of them a lot faster.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that’s Google’s reputation. Probably the most famous retirement home in the Bay.

but it's not true. Most people work a lot at G. Maybe some teams in search coast or something. But for every slacker I know 8 people who stay late a fair bit.

Strong disagree, I’ve never seen people work less than my time there.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#425
post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Canadian Dream is to get a great education and then move of the US. You might want to blame the government or this or that but I think as a Canadian I've finally come to reckon with the fact that it's just not in the Canadian ethos to do risky things like make startups. Of course there are exceptions to the rule but they are very very rare. Canadian investors don't want to take big risks and the Americans are jus…

For folks without responsibilities like kids, aging parents, etc. I really don’t think startups are very “risky”. What’s the worst that happens? It doesn’t work out and after five years you go get a job in boring corp corp with an incredible skillset and vast life experience. You’ve sacrificed some income perhaps, but so what? People make choices like that all the time. Your working career could easily be 40 or 45 ye…

There are countries where the business culture makes you unemployable and almost impossible for you to get a loan for the rest of your live if you have ever failed a business (bad enough). Many countries aren't as open to failure as the US.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have used an excellent term: AI intuition. This quality is extremely rare. Einstein probably had a similar kind of intuition in physics, and maybe that's why he was so successful. The ability to see what direction to pursue. Ilya has demonstrated it again and again, first with Alexnet (Hinton said Ilya was the person driving the project, believing in its success when no one else did, while Alex was the main imple…

Einstein famously disagreed with many facets of QM that we now believe to be true or at least closer to the truth than he was.

[deleted]

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#427
post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes zero sense, governments invest in education to improve their own country, not to train other countries work forces. If you read anything about Canada ever you will also know they have a bunch of policies to try and stop the brain drain and to recruit tech workers from abroad.

> That makes zero sense, governments invest in education to improve their own country The idea is precisely that not having SV types around _improves_ the country, i.e. makes it closer to the preferences of Canadians. And yes, having a foreign tech worker doing 9-to-5 in a large legacy company for thoroughly average salaries is very different from having a SV-style startup culture. There is very little process in Can…

> And yes, having a foreign tech worker doing 9-to-5 in a large legacy company for thoroughly average salaries is very different from having a SV-style startup culture

Immigrants coming into countries start companies at a disproportionate rate compared to natives.

Other than unquantifiable statements about what "Canadians want" everything you mentioned so far to justify this idea of "canada doesnt care if tech graduates leave" is falsifiable by data.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#428
post #246

Why does everyone here think that the guy who quit/lost his job at OpenAI because he didn't agree with their corporate shift and departure from the original non-profit vision is going to be lining up for another big corporate job building closed for-profit AI?

The big reason is that when push comes to shove, most of these people don't have any principles.

Sure, if they are in a position of power they will wield it how they want. When he caused the whole fiasco, he probably thought it was going to work.

But if the choice is between losing the position of influence, or deciding between what position of influence to accept next, well you'll see that the principles are very flexible.

We already saw this happen with a few of the "safety" researchers that got fired from OpenAI, and yet started working on X AI (I think?), which is definitely not know for "safety".

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#429
post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And none of them build AI companies in Toronto. I’m Canadian and disappointed at how ineffective we are at building successful companies.

Why would anyone start the game on hard mode when easy mode is a border drive away? Us is so outrageously better than the rest that people fly across oceans to start businesses there. Canada, being next door, doesn't have the distance moat to at least slow down the brain drain

With regards to talent, there's no particular reason why software centers couldn't be in any major established city in the world. It's not like it takes billions of dollars on a highly uncertain bet like creating a car company, rocket reuse company, or a CPU company.

A small crew of people could potentially build the next WhatsApp. On Erlang.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#430

Probably not related, but it's worth pointing out that Daniel Kokotajlo ( https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo ) left last month. But if it were related, then that would presumably be because people within the company (or at least two rather noteworthy people) no longer believe that OpenAI is acting in the best interests of humanity. Which isn't too shocking really given that a decent chunk of us feel the…

Well it might be in the best (long-term) interests of humanity to have autonomous flying killer robots powered by OpenAI secret military contracting work cut the human population in half, in the name of the long-term ecological health of the planet, and to cull those not smart or fast enough to run away, thus improving the breeding stock. That's why I don't trust people who run around claiming to be serving the best…

> Well it might be in the best (long-term) interests of humanity to have autonomous flying killer robots powered by OpenAI secret military contracting work cut the human population in half, in the name of the long-term ecological health of the planet, and to cull those not smart or fast enough to run away, thus improving the breeding stock.

I love these "kill 'em all and let God sort them out" arguments.

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