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Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

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Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#421

Post by loceng »

prossercj wrote: post #412
mensetmanusman wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is the only data available to help predict the future.

Don't forget about prophecy

Prophecy generally falls in line with "any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

If you have enough real-world data, and learned the patterns of history, along with fundamental principles that seem to be precursors or prerequisites to change, then a prophet is more or less someone with a honed and an extended-expanded open mind neural network compared to most.

P.S. It's why it's a really good idea to allow immigrants fleeing from communist countries, as they'll be best and perhaps first to detect and sound the alarm bells if fascism patterns begin to emerge in their new country.

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#422

Post by joenot443 »

aetimmes wrote: post #396
robbiep wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. You can’t deny (I don’t think) that the things he’s done are amazing. He’s in the zone where he’s smelt too many of his farts though, and believes he can do no wrong, which is historically a very bad place to be. I hope, for all of the awesome things he’s said he’d like to do, that they don’t come agutsa due to that

> the things he's done are amazing The things he's _purchased_ are amazing.

It's amazing the mental gymnastics otherwise intelligent people reach for just to allow themselves to feel superior over someone whose politics they disagree with.

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#423

Post by joenot443 »

robbiep wrote: post #385
loceng wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's likely a bad idea at this point to bet against Elon - he seems to make more good decisions than bad decisions, and is able to attract and keep the talent that is enabling his companies to snowball exponentially towards reaching the abundance of the universe. My deepest hope currently is that the riches of the universe now on the horizon of being relatively easily accessible, in a systematic and efficient…

Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. You can’t deny (I don’t think) that the things he’s done are amazing. He’s in the zone where he’s smelt too many of his farts though, and believes he can do no wrong, which is historically a very bad place to be. I hope, for all of the awesome things he’s said he’d like to do, that they don’t come agutsa due to that

> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance.

This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other areas of your life?

If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and fundamental part of decision making, I'm fascinated you've gotten along thus far without it.

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#424

Post by qayxc »

mlindner wrote: post #329
aetherspawn wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone makes a mistake and the satellite deorbits in the wrong place, am I likely to be impaled by a satellite screw or something travelling at terminal velocity?

Actually the person you replied to somewhat incorrectly. They're not targeted re-entries because the on-board propulsion of Starlink is too low to precisely control the re-entry location. However instead the satellites are designed to be intentionally "demisable" meaning that every portion of the satellite should vaporize/turn to char/dust during re-entry. Put another way, every kilogram of Starlink spacecraft has as…

> Actually the person you replied to somewhat incorrectly. They're not targeted re-entries because the on-board propulsion of Starlink is too low to precisely control the re-entry location.

SpaceX says otherwise, see [1]

   SpaceX spokesman James Gleeson, when asked about the 10 satellites, said SpaceX is “performing a controlled de-orbit of several first iteration Starlink satellites,” using onboard propulsion.
There's a difference between unscheduled deorbiting (as happened to about 40 satellites after a solar storm in February 2022) and a scheduled deorbiting manoeuvre trigged by ground control. Starlink satellites use electric on-board propulsion (Krypton powered Hall thrusters) that doesn't run out as quickly as chemical or cold gas gas thrusters. There's also not much precision needed to avoid major population centres - Earth is pretty big after all.

[1] https://spacenews.com/spacex-launches-fourth-batch-of-starli...

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#425

Post by Animats »

panick21_ wrote: post #379
Animats wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starlink is rolling out "direct to cell" connections, where the satellites connect directly to GSM cell phones. Is any ground station involved in a cell to cell call?

You could imagine a situation where they can do that. But practically what happens is the phone connects to a sat, the sat connects to a local ground station, then across conventional fiber to another ground station, up to a sat and then down to the other phones. The are likely doing that because regulation and so on. But the do what you suggest.

That wastes half the bandwidth of the system. Will Musk put up with that?

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#426

Post by AtlasBarfed »

mort96 wrote: post #353
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

on one hand - Tesla kicked off one of the two pillars of dealing with climate change: EVs to eliminate as much carbon emissions from transportation as possible on the other hand - mean tweets ... yes there is a lot of hard work by other people involved in #1, but Musk's leadership was a major contributor. Let me ask you a question. Rank the most evil CEOs in the world. If you have musk over petroleum companies, minin…

EVs don't "eliminate as much carbon emissions from transportation as possible".

I suppose I could engineer a worm that bricks as many connected ICE cars, and also a worm that brings the world supply chain and petroleum production pipeline to a halt, and bring civilization to an end.

So technically, you are correct.

When Tesla started, there was zero. ZERO. movement by the automotive and governmental powers towards decarbonization of transportation beyond hollow treaties, one of which had already been utterly ignored.

Let me emphasize: ZERO, or as close as practically imaginable to it. Ten years later, every company's CEO had a question in front of them 1) how are you going to transition to electric vehicles and stay viable. If they couldn't answer that (BMW in particular, who actually were minutely ahead of the curve but squandered it), they were fired.

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#427

Post by extraduder_ire »

jimmy76615 wrote: post #417
dr_dshiv wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

John Von Neumann liked to do math with the TV on as background noise. Genius.

I heard all those stories about Von Neumann working like that. According to a biography, his wife once designated a room as his office and he became very angry about that since it was too quiet for him to work there. Personally I need almost complete silence in order to get anything done, his abilities in this regard always fascinated me.

It's just a different kind of environmental requirement.

It's useful for some people to have recognisable sounds going on while they work, so they have something to latch their focus if they lose it for a second. Whether that be music, or every seinfeld episode on a shuffled loop on the TV.

I have found it useful in the past to listen through every song I have on shuffle while I read, which was nice when I took a few-seconds break every couple of pages and came across a song I wouldn't have picked out otherwise. Alt-tabbing out of a podcast or something completely wrecks my focus on both for some reason though.

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#428

Post by robbiep »

joenot443 wrote: post #423
robbiep wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. You can’t deny (I don’t think) that the things he’s done are amazing. He’s in the zone where he’s smelt too many of his farts though, and believes he can do no wrong, which is historically a very bad place to be. I hope, for all of the awesome things he’s said he’d like to do, that they don’t come agutsa due to that

> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other areas of your life? If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and fun…

I treat my life as a series of independent variables… much like HN comments where sometimes sticking the snappy retort in regarding a brilliant but flawed individual might jolt someone out of their hero worship, but point taken

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#429

Post by [deleted] »

robbiep wrote: post #428
joenot443 wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other areas of your life? If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and fun…

I treat my life as a series of independent variables… much like HN comments where sometimes sticking the snappy retort in regarding a brilliant but flawed individual might jolt someone out of their hero worship, but point taken

[deleted]

Re: Starlink's laser system is beaming 42 petabytes of data per day

#430

Post by merman »

robbiep wrote: post #428
joenot443 wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Past performance is a piss poor indicator of future performance. This is such a baseless and almost comically wrong heuristic I'm curious how it's one you landed on. I'm earnestly curious, do you use the same heuristic in other areas of your life? If you were in the market for a car, would you let the past performance of other vehicles you've owned influence that decision? It seems to me to be such a simple and fun…

I treat my life as a series of independent variables… much like HN comments where sometimes sticking the snappy retort in regarding a brilliant but flawed individual might jolt someone out of their hero worship, but point taken

“past performance is a poor indicator of future performance” is quite a weak statement. It’s the one of the best predictors there is. There are very few exceptions. When you were called out you doubled down with complete nonsense. If everything were a series of independent variables, then every day after work, how do you decide whether to return home to your loving spouse (of many years) and children, why not go to a bar and find some strange? Why bother calling up your longtime friends to hang out, why not go to a bar and talk to the person next to you - a lifetime of (past) friendship is no indication of future kinship! Why bother writing a response to a forum post, when one moment from now, everything will be independent of everything else, and you have no expectations of feeling the same way? Finally, you excuse any flaws in your travesty of ideas by claiming that sniping at “Elon worshipers” is such a just cause that it excuses any sort of flawed thinking. This is a fine demonstration of echo chamber thinking.
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