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The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

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Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#421

Post by sershe »

nemo44x wrote: post #419
sershe wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vinyl/plastic windows and siding might be used because they are superior basically in every way? They don't rot, don't require almost any maintenance (exterior painting, etc.), windows fit much better and are better insulated, siding is much harder to damage and easier to clean (and also doesn't need paint). Frankly wooden windows are a personal pet peeve of mine. I have old (many decades) wooden windows in my house,…

You don’t know what you’re talking about. Vinyl windows get destroyed by the sun in 5 years or less. They also warp a lot and that nice seal you have is gone in a couple years tops. They are such a bad product with the only redeeming feature being they are cheap. Wood windows that are clad in aluminum or fiberglass will last 50 years and perform. Same for siding. Vinyl siding fades from the sun and warps and stops do…

The new-ish plastic windows I have are actually ~15 years old and they have none of these issues (they are new-ish compared to the older wooden windows). They are in a condition that could be described as "looks new" and keep in warmth better as confirmed with an IR thermometer around them.

The wooden windows of the same age and roughly the same dimensions installed by the same company are all kinds of wonky; they slide poorly because of I guess gradual shape change and wear of the wood, and don't seal well. Also a minor installation defect caused the top of one of the windows to rot. Not a problem with plastic, if there's a defect just fix it, window is good as new. When the window guys told me I need to replace the window I just said while you're at it do you want to rip out all the other ones too an replace with plastic? :)

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#422

Post by mindslight »

goodSteveramos wrote: post #412
mindslight wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but it's a bit odd to direct focus at immigrants when it's many different market segments. If anything, immigrants are generally more willing to live poorer with traditional gender roles, having children in spite of the extractive economic conditions. It's the native born who put it off waiting for the right time.

The purpose of a state is not to bring in foreigners to replace the native population. It even rises to a low level UN definition of genocide when the native population is not allowed to express its disapproval of that policy.

The "genocide" you speak of is due the general economic policies across the board, which have nothing to do with immigration. Shoehorning the overall problem into a myopic complaint about immigration doesn't accomplish much besides neutralizing your own political stake.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#423

Post by nemo44x »

sershe wrote: post #421
nemo44x wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t know what you’re talking about. Vinyl windows get destroyed by the sun in 5 years or less. They also warp a lot and that nice seal you have is gone in a couple years tops. They are such a bad product with the only redeeming feature being they are cheap. Wood windows that are clad in aluminum or fiberglass will last 50 years and perform. Same for siding. Vinyl siding fades from the sun and warps and stops do…

The new-ish plastic windows I have are actually ~15 years old and they have none of these issues (they are new-ish compared to the older wooden windows). They are in a condition that could be described as "looks new" and keep in warmth better as confirmed with an IR thermometer around them. The wooden windows of the same age and roughly the same dimensions installed by the same company are all kinds of wonky; they sl…

You must have bought the magical, physics defying model.

Vinyl warps more than twice as much as wood and 7 times glass and is very weak to resistance. On an extremely hot or cold day the temperature outside and inside are hugely different. This matters more in regions that see more extreme temperatures throughout the year.

Now it might be you live in a climate where the weather barely changes and it might be your windows are quite small. Smaller windows don’t suffer as much as larger windows like a 36x52. So I’ll grant environment matters. Even which direction they face will matter.

And yes there are different qualities of vinyl windows. But I’d put a lower quality aluminum/fiberglass clad wood window against the best vinyl every day.

And while there’s no accounting for taste, vinyl windows look awful.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#424

Post by sershe »

nemo44x wrote: post #423
sershe wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new-ish plastic windows I have are actually ~15 years old and they have none of these issues (they are new-ish compared to the older wooden windows). They are in a condition that could be described as "looks new" and keep in warmth better as confirmed with an IR thermometer around them. The wooden windows of the same age and roughly the same dimensions installed by the same company are all kinds of wonky; they sl…

You must have bought the magical, physics defying model. Vinyl warps more than twice as much as wood and 7 times glass and is very weak to resistance. On an extremely hot or cold day the temperature outside and inside are hugely different. This matters more in regions that see more extreme temperatures throughout the year. Now it might be you live in a climate where the weather barely changes and it might be your win…

I do live in Seattle, but where I've previously lived the temperature routinely goes to -30F in winter and 95F in the summer, and for the reasons of previous lack of availability plastic windows were one of the first things people installed, including on e.g. 5-6ft square panels. Never heard of the problems with them, and never had problems with whichever ones I used. However in many places I lived (including with mild climate like SF) wooden windows never failed to have some wonkiness to them, and in one apartment when you closed the sliding windows too fast there'd be fresh wood shavings coming out :)

Also just googling "vinyl window wrap" or deformation (I assume vinyl is what people typically call cheaper plastic?) I cannot find much of anything. On the other hand if you google for wooden windows or siding moisture/deformation/rot, you find plenty of advice and complaints alike. These physics seem to be reality defying, or they apply in some extreme conditions when comparing with the best possible wooden window...

And I tried to avoid bringing up taste, even though I wanted to, but I guess I have to bite now. That actually gives me additional disdain for wooden-window-buying - yep, they are still popular because a significant fraction of the population still thinks that e.g. craftsman houses with "nooks" and 4-to-7ft sloping ceiling on the 2nd floor are "timeless" and modern functional ones are "soulless boxes". I can only chalk it to misplaced nostalgia... I'm sorry, the Neolithic called, they want their mud huts back :P

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#425

Post by [deleted] »

recuter wrote: post #86
toomuchtodo wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gotta start somewhere. Older houses were built when energy was cheap and plentiful, and we're transitioning to a future where that isn't as clear.

You can pay the greenie winnie tax and go full passive house and be completely off grid sitting pretty in an airtight optimally efficient home: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhbLjEKKLVM It would also triple the construction cost of the house. Reasons. But hey, $0 energy bill. Most builders don't do any of that stuff, like at all. Just the bare minimum required. They aren't incentivized. Most consumers would - and d…

[deleted]

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#426

Post by nocoiner »

eagleinparadise wrote: post #417
nocoiner wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you say the deal will lose money, do you mean that (1) the project’s operating expenses exceed its income, (2) the building can’t be satisfactorily recapped after completion/stabilization, (3) the MOIC at exit will be less than 1.0x, (4) the investor won’t receive their full preferred return or (5) the sponsor won’t earn any promote? I could see any of these as being a way to describe a deal that “loses money.”

I was modeling a 2-3% IRR on aggressive numbers when I last worked on it. It was acquired with a proforma 18% IRR. Whenever it's sold, it's going to return less than 1.0x. Not sure how bad the loss will be. Even if it is recapped, the deal will require a significant cash-in refinance. If the business plan is saved and it takes you another 4 years to exit at a better number, that 4-yr now 8-yr deal results in say a lo…

Sorry for the late reply (not sure if you’ll even see this) but thanks for the response. Oof, yeah, that’s a tough one. Definitely think calling that project a money loser is a fair characterization.

Sorry to hear about it, the CRE guys I know are all pretty damned smart and incredibly hard working and it’s nonetheless a tough business for them. Though if one has the chops, not a bad “get rich slowly” scheme, lol.

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