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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#421

Post by chatterhead »

_trackno5 wrote: post #339
chatterhead wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you believe oil should be then so should all energy; including the entirely government created "alternative energy" industry. Investors will be scared of the US nationalizing specific strategic industries but not the changing political winds of foreign nations? I don't think so.

I don't understand your comment. You seem to believe because I stated something it means that I'm denying something else. If clean energy sources are strategic, yeah the US should do the work to protect its ability to utilise it regardless of it being oil, solar, wind, nuclear. Doesn't mean the state needs to own those ventures, just that they should put in the effort to fund investment and growth in strategic areas.

Not understanding is an act of willful ignorance.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#422

Post by hayst4ck »

rat87 wrote: post #403
hayst4ck wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"On entire other sides of the globe" is a pretty strong statement. Japan is a vassal state of the US and Taiwan's independence from China relies wholly on US support. Chinese citizens (at least the ones I questioned) have no love for Japanese. There are even talks of a Pacific NATO between Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and the Phillipines, with Taiwan being the clear Ukraine parallel. South Korea is probably politically lik…

Japan is not a vassal state. It's a powerful country that's an ally of the US.

Japan's constitution prohibits a traditional military as a result of surrender in WW2. Not having the right to solve your own disputes sounds like vassalization to me. From a face saving perspective "powerful ally country" is probably the status of every vassal state. From a de facto perspective they are not allowed to solve their own disputes and house military bases of a country that solves disputes (with the threat of violence) on their behalf.

The difference between ally and vassal seems like one of alignment. Right now Japan and the US are quite aligned, but were alignment different, I think the status would be as well.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#423

Post by l33t233372 »

rat87 wrote: post #398
tsimionescu wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you underestimate the dependency of all modern economy on semiconductor industry. I honestly think there is 100% chance that if China invaded Taiwan today, the US would declare war and send troops to defend Taiwan. In contrast, I think there is >0% chance that the US would not declare war on Russia if they did a (tactical) nuclear attack in Ukraine.

No you massively overestimate the importance of economics or semiconductor industry. Whatever will happen to Taiwan has nothing to do with Chips. For China it's about nationalism, for US it's about protecting allies/upholding treaties and protecting democracy from the strongest authoritarian regime. Chips are not important. After all chances are high they might be destroyed even in a successful defense of Taiwan. As…

The US is really not _that_ interested in protecting democracy from authoritarian regimes. If we were, we’d have boots on the ground in many African states.

While upholding treaties is vitally important, I think you’re underestimating the importance of chips(a rare occurrence on HN!).

Wars are generally fought over resources rather than ideas, and pretending that US is defending Taiwan to defend democracy instead of defending its strategic interests (access to vital resources — chips) is misguided.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#424

Post by gdy »

computerfriend wrote: post #283
gdy wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they weren't.

It really seems that much of the EU thought Putin was bluffing right up until the end of February. EU leaders proudly saying they had personal assurances Russia wouldn't invade again. There was incredible amounts of inaction. Only a handful of countries were shipping weapons, mostly non-EU.

Sorry, you may claim that the EU was indulging in wishful thinking, but you can't call it 'caught off-guard'.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#425

Post by giobox »

rat87 wrote: post #408
nscalf wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan's high end chip fabs. It cannot be overstated how much we depend on that, if TSMC operates in other countries, we don't HAVE to engage in WW3.

No just no Our dedication to protect our ally Taiwan has nothing to do with Silicone and neither does China's nationalist obsession over it. If it comes to war, chips will play no role

While we can likely all agree "Silicone" is not the issue, silicon chips is undoubtedly an important variable. The Taiwanese government agrees too, and does think chips will play a role:

"Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, told one group that she saw the island’s tech prowess as a means of shoring up support for its democracy. Calling economic security a “pillar” of national security, she said Taiwan was willing to work with partners to build sustainable supply chains for what she called “democracy chips.”

> https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/29/technology/taiwan-chips.h...

This is hardly an "out-there" take, too.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#426

Post by ericmay »

bendhoefs wrote: post #329
slickrick216 wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If China attempts an invasion on Taiwan it is not unrealistic to suggest they’ll also take a swing at Japan and at least try to destroy the fabs there.

Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.

“Taking” Taiwan with abrupt military force cannot be decoupled from a war with the entire west all at once. At least US, UK, SK, AUS, and others (unsure about EU involvement).

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#427

Post by monocasa »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #388
theptip wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm confused by this take. Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. The primary reason that we're concerned about semiconductor fab concentration in Taiwan is that China has consistently stated that it is going to invade Taiwan at some point (and that could be 2049 or in a few years for all we know). This is completely outside of any hypothetical scenarios of…

> Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China. Japan cooperates with AUKUS [1]. If Xi invades Taiwan, it's going to pull in America, Britain, Australia and–in all likelihood–Japan. That said, we're more likely to see a recapitulation of the Ukraine playbook than direct intervention by American and Japanese forces. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS

Japan has inquired about participating in AUKUS, but doesn't currently.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#428

Post by ericmay »

etempleton wrote: post #420
bendhoefs wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? If China decides to invade Taiwan surely they'll do everything they can to not give the rest of the world a reason to intervene. They want Taiwan not a war with the entire west all at once.

The United States has indicated that they would intervene, which means the only way to have a chance at a successful amphibious landing would be to conduct preemptive strikes against US bases in the region. To do so would be a direct declaration of war against the US and NATO, which, at current, China cannot hope to win. I think China is out of there mind here. They either are A. willing to smash Taiwan to rubble and…

NATO specifically doesn’t involve European partners in a war in the Pacific. Not to say some may or may not join the US in the fight.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#429

Post by l33t233372 »

hayst4ck wrote: post #358
TillE wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're different countries with entirely different relationships to the PRC.

"On entire other sides of the globe" is a pretty strong statement. Japan is a vassal state of the US and Taiwan's independence from China relies wholly on US support. Chinese citizens (at least the ones I questioned) have no love for Japanese. There are even talks of a Pacific NATO between Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and the Phillipines, with Taiwan being the clear Ukraine parallel. South Korea is probably politically lik…

Japan is by no means a Vassal states. It has the third largest GDP in the world, and is a major player in its own right, although you are correct in asserting that it is militarily comparable with far less wealthy nations.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#430

Post by etempleton »

JAlexoid wrote: post #291
nscalf wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does it do little to diversify these fabs? The current situation is that if China invades Taiwan, the entire Western world is compelled to engage militarily over Taiwan's high end chip fabs. It cannot be overstated how much we depend on that, if TSMC operates in other countries, we don't HAVE to engage in WW3.

Em... I doubt that semiconductor industry is the thing to lead us to WW3.

It is not just about semiconductors. It is about pride. Taiwan shows another way for China that is not the PRC just as Hong Kong did. Taiwan is not just a separatist state, it is a successful separatist state. The better Taiwan does the worse the PRC looks. Semiconductors are just another gut punch. Why can't mainland China do what tiny Taiwan has done?
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